Prabowo-Jokowi alliance splits as result locked in

Critics say even a finding of ‘structured, systematic, and massive’ violations is unlikely to overturn the Prabowo-Gibran victory.

Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka are plastered on the streets of Jakarta this week. Picture: AFP

Indonesia’s election commission was poised to formally announce Prabowo Subianto as the country’s next president late on Wednesday as thousands of police braced for protests in Jakarta and other cities over a result overshadowed by controversy.

The former special forces commander and three-time election loser, who swept to victory on the support of his former rival, President Joko Widodo, had won 34 of 36 provinces by Wednesday morning, with the results of just Papua and Papua Highlands to be finalised.

Only Aceh and West Sumatra provinces went to distant second-place rival Anies Baswedan who, with third-placed candidate Ganjar Pranowo, has vowed to challenge the election in the Constitutional Court and potentially also through a parliamentary inquiry. Both losing teams have alleged the result was skewed by intimidation and the misuse of state resources in support of Mr Prabowo and his running mate. Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son, a claim widely supported by academics and civil society groups.

Yanuar Nugroho, a former deputy chief of staff to Jokowi and a respected academic, this week called for a forensic audit of the election commission’s IT systems to ensure the integrity of future elections in the wake of “perhaps the worst since reformasi”, referring to Indonesia’s embrace of democracy after the 1998 ouster of the Suharto regime.

“Even if ‘structured, systematic and massive’ violations (the Indonesian election watchdog’s ­required benchmark for disqualifying candidates) could be proven, it would probably be insufficient to stop the court from legitimising Prabowo-Gibran’s victory,” the visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS Institute wrote in the Fulcrum political blog.

Few surprises had been ­expected from the final election result after reliable quick counts from the February 14 polling day showed Team Prabowo had ­secured a commanding first-round victory with as much as 58 per cent of the vote, and the ­Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) would remain parliament’s largest party.

Debate has since centred on the level of state intervention in the campaign, a Constitutional Court ruling allowing Gibran to contest the vice-presidency despite being under the age of 40, and the Election Commission’s decision this month to remove the live count from its website. But with parties now jockeying for positions in the next government, which takes office in October, cracks are already appearing in the Jokowi-Prabowo alliance.

Senior figures within Mr Prabowo’s Gerindra party are said to be questioning a final result in which the party of the next president won fewer seats than Golkar, the political vehicle of Suharto, with some alleging an unusually high number of damaged Gerindra ballots. That has played into concerns over a potential power struggle within a Prabowo ­coalition government amid ­rumours Jokowi is eyeing Golkar as his post-presidential platform.

Gerindra chairman Sufmi Dasco Ahmad this week shot down Golkar’s claim to a minimum five seats in the first Prabowo cabinet, saying allocations would be based on party performance.

“The big political drama going forward will revolve around Golkar and whether Jokowi will try and take it over by proxy,” ­Indikator pollster Kennedy Islam told The Australian. “It’s going to get rocky because there are ­already rumours of a split between Jokowi and Prabowo.”

With just six months left in his second and final term, Jokowi was on a “tight deadline” to secure a lasting position of influence. “He must control one of the big parties and right now Golkar is the target, but in what capacity? There is ­already some resistance to that,” Mr Islam said.

Mr Islam said the PDIP – which supported Jokowi’s presidency but fell out over his support for Mr Prabowo – would retain the parliamentary speaker’s role as the largest party, and likely spend the first year of the new presidency in opposition waiting for the cracks to widen.

“The PDIP will wait patiently for the moment when the honeymoon between Prabowo and Jokowi is over and they will make a deal with Prabowo to join his government,” he predicted.

Just as Jokowi invited Prabowo into his coalition in 2019 to reduce the power of the PDIP and its chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri, Prabowo could eventually invite the PDIP in to reduce Jokowi’s influence, he added.