Poll shows Jacinda Ardern could govern alone

Jacinda Ardern is on course to govern NZ without minor parties’ support but something unexpected has derailed her campaign.

Jacinda Ardern buys barbecue sauces during a walkabout at Riverside Market in Christchurch. Picture: Getty Images.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is on course to govern New Zealand alone, without the support of minor parties according to latest polling.

Three weeks out from the October 17 election, a Newshub-Reid Research poll put Labour on 50.1 per cent, down 10.8 points from the last Newshub poll held in July but still far ahead of National, languishing at 29.6 per cent.

The smaller parties lagged behind with Act on 6.3 per cent, the Greens on 6.5 per cent and New Zealand First far behind on 1.9 per cent.

Under New Zealand’s complicated Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system which has been in place since 1996, no party has been able to govern without the support of other parties.

The news is devastating for the rival National PArty, and comes despite a big spending tax cuts plan and a successful first debate for National leader Judith Collins.

Ms Collins talked down the poll, saying she was getting a ”very good vibe” on the ground as she campaigned, and telling Newshub internal polling was more positive than their poll.

The one piece of good news for Ms Collins is that her popularity has risen by 3.1 percentage points to 17.7 per cent in the preferred PM stakes, but she still trails in the wake of Ms Ardern, on 53.2 per cent.

The previous Newshub-Reid Research poll, taken before Auckland’s second outbreak, had Labour on more than 60 per cent, National on 25.1 per cent, the Greens on 5.7 per cent, Act on 3.3 per cent and New Zealand First on 2 per cent.

Ms Ardern’s campaigning has been temporarily derailed, however, after severe weather trapped her in the far south city of Invercargill.

Ms Ardern had been due to fly from Invercargill to Auckland to attend a campaign event on Tuesday but her flight was cancelled after a snowstorm hit the city.

Springtime on the campaign trail - in the van back to Dunedin - looking like a winter wonderland pic.twitter.com/gDdevvU58l

— Megan Woods (@Megan_Woods) September 28, 2020

After driving into the city on Sunday night, Ms Ardern had to take to the road again, driving with her team to Queenstown in the hope of catching a flight to Auckland from the South Island ski resort.

She had posted a Facebook message on the way to Invercargill, saying: “We’re experiencing the weather like everybody else.”

Posted by Jacinda Ardern on Sunday, 27 September 2020

She has refused to build up hopes that she could govern alone, telling Newshub it was premature to expect this would be the outcome of the election.

NZ First leader Winston Peters was bullish about his poor polling, telling Newshub: “I don’t have any regard for your polls.”