Negotiating skills will be put to the test as Brexit comes knocking at Johnson’s door

Boris Johnson has a short window of calm to convince Brussels to change its Brexit position before the storm hits.

Anti-Brexiteers outside Boris Johnson’s campaign office. Picture: AFP

Boris Johnson has a short window of calm to convince Brussels to change its Brexit position, or else he says he will take Britain out of the EU without a deal.

The British parliament is in ­recess until September 3 and everyone can take a deep breath after the whirlwind of the past few days. But will they?

Every word of Johnson’s speech outside 10 Downing Street after seeing the Queen this morning (AEST) will be scrutinised, ­analysed and then re-evaluated .

To his supporters and detractors, it will not make any difference nor change any deeply entrenched views about Brexit.

But for the middle — the ­waverers about Brexit, about a no-deal, about Johnson himself — it is a critical signpost about his plans. All the while, the plotters will take this northern summer hiatus to plot.

Former attorney-general, Remainer and Johnson critic Dominic Grieve spoke earlier this week about Johnson promising to everyone what they wanted to hear, but such widely different plans have to be reconciled at some point.

Johnson’s tactics are to retain his strongest negotiating hand: a no-deal Brexit that will hurt the European economies too.

European countries are sick of the Brexit debate and want it to go away, but they are resiled to standing firm and won’t make any concessions.

They certainly won’t want to be seen as “throwing Ireland under a bus’’, which may be the impression given the drama they have created about the necessity for the backstop.

Johnson plans to negate the backstop — the deal to keep all of Britain in the EU until a trading ­relationship is agreed upon so that no hard border is created between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland — by implementing technological solutions at the border. The reality is Northern ­Ireland and the republic are two separate countries with different currencies and mobile phone carriers.

While the ease of people movement across the border is seamless and is planned to continue, Johnson wants goods to be scanned and checked with as little interruption as possible.

The EU knows Johnson is much harder than Theresa May on the Brexit issue and may find some compromise.

But if the EU does not agree and sticks with the same withdrawal agreement that has been rejected by Westminster three times, Johnson may feel he has the authority to take the country out of the EU on the default day of ­October 31 without a deal. However, parliament is very much pro-Remain, including dozens of angry Tory MPs.

At least three Tory MPs have threatened to cross the floor and vote with ­Labour on a no-confidence ­motion to stop Johnson implementing a no-deal Brexit. The Queen could get involved if Johnson prorogues parliament.

Any of that electric drama could play into Johnson’s hand, as the upheaval would force him to call a general election.

Going to the polls won’t then be his idea, but one foisted upon him.

Any election will turn the usual political Tory-Labour divide upside down and it will become a quasi Brexit referendum again.

Or, if the political squandering is so great, Johnson might take the Brexit question back to the people for a second referendum, avoiding a general election but keeping himself and the Tories in power.

What is hoped for is some ­certainty and that the indecision and paralysis of the past few years dissipates.

Johnson is hoping he can bring the energy to kickstarting a Britain that was ground down by May’s ­attempts at appeasement and the austerity of previous Tory governments.

It has been three years since the Brexit referendum, but essentially the country is still pondering the same Europe question it has been troubled about for decades: What will happen? No one really knows.