Is this the beginning of the wider Middle East war we’ve been watching for and fearing ever since the October 7 Hamas atrocities in Israel?
The Israeli Defence Forces struck thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers because it had iron clad indications that Hezbollah was planning to launch a massive attack on Israel’s north and some of its central cities, including its biggest city, Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah in turn launched something like 400 rockets and drones at Israel.
Ever since the Hamas atrocities, Hezbollah has kept up a barrage of attacks on northern Israel. These attacks have resulted in nearly 80,000 Israelis being evacuated from northern towns and kibbutzes.
Israeli military and political leaders have recently been warning Hezbollah that it would not tolerate this situation indefinitely.
To demonstrate to Hezbollah that there are consequences for attacking Israel, the IDF assassinated Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut late last month.
Just after that Iranian agents working for Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Both Hezbollah and Iran vowed, publicly and repeatedly, that they would strike Israel to avenge these deaths.
This has the whole Middle East, and Washington, on edge and worried that a big war involving Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, and quite possibly the US, could break out.
Iran has recently indicated that its response could be limited. It says it does not want to disrupt ongoing ceasefire talks involving Hamas and Israel.
However, these talks have dragged on for months and it’s very unclear if Hamas has ever really been interested in a ceasefire on anything remotely resembling realistic terms.
It’s more likely Iran is deeply concerned that another attack on Israel may be ineffective and this could paradoxically humiliate Iran.
On the other hand, if Iran manages an effective attack on Israel, Jerusalem could take the opportunity it has been sweating on to mount a massive attack on Iran’s nuclear program and infrastructure.
In southern Lebanon, Israel has been working to push Hezbollah further north, so that it can repopulate its own northern towns.
It is quite likely US Vice-President Kamala Harris had some idea this was a likely outcome when at last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago she pledged unswerving commitment to maintaining Israel’s ability to defend itself.
This ability is bolstered by the presence of substantial US Navy assets in the region.
It’s by no means total war, but the region is on a knife’s edge.
‘Tortured’: Israeli family begs for release of blinded hostage
Alon Ohel’s family is told he’s starving and seriously injured by shrapnel as freed hostages tell how they were kept chained and repeatedly told, falsely, that they were to be released.
We’ll need a bigger axe, says Musk
The White House’s DOGE has drawn scrutiny for the rapid work of its technology team burrowing into multiple agencies, but it also says it has identified and cut more than $US1bn in spending.