Kevin Rudd says US, Donald Trump have chance to build stable Middle East

Kevin Rudd has set out his hope that the US President might now persuade Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a two-state solution with Palestine.

Australia’s ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd. Picture: Getty Images

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Kevin Rudd has given Donald Trump “full marks” on his intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, while voicing hopes that the US President might now persuade Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a two-state solution with Palestine.

Australia’s ambassador to the US also said the recent decision of NATO members to lift defence spending was the result of a “cocktail of factors” – including the threat to Europe posed by Russia and Mr Trump’s ongoing insistence that America’s partners contribute more to their own security.

“To give President Trump his dues, he has always said that he does not accept that proposition that any US allies should be freeloading on the United States,” Dr Rudd said.

Pressed on the 30-day Pentagon review on the future of the AUKUS agreement, Dr Rudd said the Australian government was “completely relaxed about that … because it is what administration do when they are newly elected for programs which they have inherited from previous administrations”.

He also suggested there was a chance for Mr Trump to reach a grand bargain with Chinese leader Xi Jinping across a range of areas, including trade, investment, technology restrictions, national security issues – including cyber and space – as well as narcotics and fentanyl.

Asked whether Mr Trump deserved the Noble peace prize for his Middle East diplomacy, Dr Rudd did not rule out the possibility. He responded by saying that – given his own past experience as a junior diplomat in Scandinavia – he was aware that “the Nobel committee in Oslo … fiercely guards its independence”.

US President Donald Trump with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in April. Picture: AP

“But in being fiercely independent and having, through their own country, been party to the Oslo process ... which for the first time brought Palestinians and Israelis around the table way back when – 20 years ago – I’m sure our Norwegian friends will be very mindful of a real outcome,” he said.

Dr Rudd made sure to qualify his remarks at the Aspen Ideals Festival in Colorado, saying that he was a “China guy” by background and that the Middle East was “not my patch”. He said his remarks on the Middle East were those a “rank amateur” and did not represent “the official views of the Australian government”.

Speaking in conversation with Politico’s Jonathan Martin, Dr Rudd said that “we all want the ceasefire to hold. And, frankly, full marks to the President for having the chutzpah to put it on the line.”

He said Mr Trump was able to achieve a “ceasefire between the two most unlikely states to agree to a ceasefire”.

Dr Rudd said Mr Trump had finally brought the “Iranians to the negotiating table in terms of accepting a set of arrangements with the US and the rest of the international community on what is left ... of the Iranian nuclear weapons program”.

He was also optimistic about the outlook for Gaza and the West Bank, saying that Mr Trump’s actions would help “move the debate and the dial in the direction of a sustainable two-state solution”.

In addition, the fact that the Iranian nuclear program had now been degraded met a core Israeli national security interest. Dr Rudd said this would “therefore hopefully provide an opening for the United States and the rest of the international community to cause Israel to conclude that a two-state outcome is the best for Israel, best for the Palestinian people, best for the US, best for US allies, including my own country, and best for the rest of the world because there does need to be a Palestinian homeland”.

“If President Trump can push in this direction to get the Israeli government, notwithstanding Bibi Netanyahu’s reservations, across that line and, assuming there is a reform program within the Palestinian Authority, which has been notoriously badly administered, then I think there is an opportunity to secure the future,” he said.

On European defence, Dr Rudd said the efforts of NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had helped gain support for Mr Trump’s demands for greater defence spending.

“To give the President his due, this has been pressure successfully applied,” Dr Rudd said.

Pressed on the recent G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, Dr Rudd said that while the US President cut short his visit and missed a range of bilateral meetings with world leaders – including Anthony Albanese – there was an understanding Mr Trump was dealing with an international crisis.

“Everyone got it,” he said. “Frankly, those bilaterals can be deferred. There’s no anxiety ... about any of that.”

Dr Rudd said the Australian Prime Minister was instead able to have meetings at the G7 with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

“These all represent points of progress along the road,” Dr Rudd said. “But it was obviously dominated by the ... security challenges in the Middle East and Iran. And, as we know, these were fundamental events.”

Shifting to the Indo-Pacific and China, Dr Rudd said that Xi Jinping’s top priorities were to keep the Chinese Community Party in power, continue the campaign for Chinese reunification – including with Taiwan – and to grow the economy while outpacing the US in the race for AI supremacy.

“We should be under no illusion as friends, partners and allies of the United States that Mr Xi wants Taiwan,” he said. “And he is prepared to use military force to do it if he cannot achieve it by diplomatic or political means.”

Dr Rudd said military deterrence was critical and that the Chinese did pay attention to how the US engaged in other global theatres – including Ukraine and the Middle East. He said the intervention in Iran showed to the world that the “US has the capacity and the political will to act” and reinforced the formidable military capability and reach of America.

Mr Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in 2019. Picture: AFP

He said Mr Trump had spent more time with Mr Xi than nearly any other leader – including former president Joe Biden – and that the Chinese President was also “deeply respectful” of the US leader.

There was still work to do by Washington and Beijing on trade, investment, technology restrictions, national security issues – including cyber and space – as well as narcotics and fentanyl.

“There is something about President Trump’s negotiating style which is so out of the box, like it’s not conventional … and therefore I think it behoves all of us in the international community not to reach any premature judgments about the impossibility of landing comprehensive agreements between the two countries,” he said.

On AUKUS, Dr Rudd was optimistic. He said there had been statements of support for the security partnership from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and a strong endorsement for it by both sides of politics in the US congress.

“There is going to be an internal review. That is just normal,” he said. “We would do the same thing if we were in the administration’s shoes as well.”

Pressed on whether there should be a NATO equivalent in the Pacific region, Dr Rudd downplayed the concept. He said that the existing strategic architecture and system of bilateral treaties had proved effective in deterring China from taking Taiwan.

“The arrangements have been working for the parties,” he said.