Donald Trump has a rare chance to strike a new settlement to bring stability to the Middle East and realise his ambition to become the peacemaker President. But the goal can only be achieved if the US and Israel remain strategically and tactically aligned.
While the success of Israel’s campaign against Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas has opened up a window of opportunity to reshape the future trajectory of the Middle East, there is a growing frustration in Washington at key decisions being taken by an emboldened Benjamin Netanyahu.
On Thursday, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said America “did not support recent Israeli strikes” against Syrian forces aimed at protecting the minority Druze community.
She said the US had led “diplomatic efforts to promote real de-escalation and peace,” and engaged with all parties on “specific steps that will bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end.”
This is a blunt rebuke of Israel that reflects a growing divergence in priorities – and it was not the only source of Trump’s disappointment with Netanyahu on Thursday.
The US President was also angered by an Israeli strike on Gaza’s lone Catholic Church, killing at least three people and injuring the Reverend Gabriel Romanelli – a friend of the late Pope Francis.
While Netanyahu’s office expressed deep regret, saying the incident was a mistake caused by “stray ammunition,” a furious Trump called the Israeli leader directly to voice his frustration. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said “it was not a positive reaction.”
Six months into his second term, the episode is a reminder that Trump has yet to end the war in Gaza despite three meetings in Washington with Netanyahu.
It was also Netanyahu who gambled correctly that he could draw the US into striking Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities by launching Operating Rising Lion – a calculation which placed enormous pressure on Trump given his commitment to steer clear of foreign entanglements.
Even after a ceasefire was struck to end the 12-day war, the Israeli leader continued to test Trump’s patience by sending his aircraft to launch further attacks on Iran. Trump ordered Netanyahu to turn them around mid-flight.
“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f..k they’re doing,” the US President said at the time.
The project of reaching a new Middle East settlement will rest on how successfully the US and Israel can work together. While both nations share the common goals of securing a more stable and peaceful region in which Iranian influence is curtailed, they do not always agree on how to achieve these objectives.
Trump is pushing a grand political solution, but believes it is too often being undermined by Netanyahu. The US President wants to stabilise Syria through sanctions relief and the normalisation of ties with new President Ahmed al-Sharaa – a former jihadist who until recently had a $US10m bounty on his head. His hope is to push Syrian integration into the Abraham Accords as part of a new US-led anti-Iran bloc.
Israel’s recent strikes are aimed at protecting the Druze minority in Syria and preventing extremist threats on its own border. But, if they ignite a regional backlash, it could jeopardise the opportunity created by the weakening of Iran’s influence.
Growing tactical divergences between Israel and the US now loom as a key stumbling block in their joint project of remaking the Middle East.
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