Israeli support for Gaza war wanes as fighting restarts

The goal of neutralising Hamas remains, but many Israelis, even some on the right, are more concerned with freeing the hostages sand feel only a negotiated settlement can bring them back.

A sign in Hebrew reads on the road "Netanyahu is not fit", as demonstrators hold a protest calling for action to release the remaining Israeli hostages held captive in Gaza. Picture; AFP.

Israel returned to fighting in Gaza on Tuesday, but without clear public backing amid a wave of political turmoil that has caused trust in the government to plummet.

It is a very different environment than when Israel first launched its battle against Hamas 17 months ago, after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks left around 1,200 dead and some 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli authorities. Israelis at the time set aside bitter internal political disputes that had filled the streets with protesters and fell in behind the war effort.

Then, the public was united in wanting to see Hamas punished and neutralised. Now, with the group already battered, many Israelis, even some on the right, are more concerned with freeing the hostages still alive in Gaza and feel only a negotiated settlement to the war can bring them back.

The shift in opinion was prompted by the images of two dozen Israeli hostages released over the past two months, often in poor shape, with injuries or obvious malnutrition that shocked Israelis and heightened concerns about the fate of the remaining 59 hostages, as many as 24 of whom Israel thinks might still be alive.

In addition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reviving old disputes by taking another run at legislation that would give him more control over the country’s judicial system, a move that sparked a year of mass demonstrations leading up to the war. He also is seeking to preserve the fast-growing ultraorthodox population’s exemption from military service. And, he has further purged the security establishment of those who favoured a ceasefire and is manoeuvring to fire Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security service, arguing that he has lost his trust.

“The fault line runs on the question of the hostages,” said Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow of the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. “It doesn’t get any more loaded than this convergence of grievances.”

Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to removed Ronen Bar, chief of the Israel Security Agency Shin Bet. Picture: AFP.

A poll released March 9 by the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, found that 73% of Israelis supported negotiating with Hamas over an end to the fighting and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages. Notably, 56% of right-wing Israelis polled said they supported the ceasefire deal, as did 62% of voters from Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Many Israelis who want to see a deal that would release hostages now still support fully defeating Hamas and driving it out of Gaza, but they are willing to delay that goal. The divide could hurt the war effort of a country that depends heavily on volunteer fighters.

Israelis “want Hamas to be destroyed. But they want the hostages to come first,” said Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli general. “And this may reduce the motivation of the reservists to go to another round.” In contrast to October 2023, Netanyahu is now facing an opposition determined to remove him from power.

“Our heroic fighters need a prime minister that they can believe is interested only in the security of the country and the fate of the hostages,” opposition leader Yair Lapid said. “That is not the situation today.” The prime minister has repeatedly said he wants the hostages released and that military pressure is necessary for that to happen.

“Our commitment and that of the security forces is to work tirelessly to free your loved ones, our loved ones, both the living and the dead,” Netanyahu said in televised remarks Tuesday night. He argued that Hamas had rejected proposals to renew the ceasefire.

An Israeli army Merkava tank moves along the border fence with the northern Gaza Strip. Picture: AFP.

More than 40 hostages were killed during the war in Gaza. Israel has acknowledged that at least 14 died as a result of military activity including airstrikes. Another six were executed by Hamas in late August as Israeli troops closed in.

“The greatest fear of the families, of the hostages, and of the people of Israel has been realised,” the Hostages Families Forum, which represents most hostage families, said Tuesday, demanding that Israel return to the negotiating table.

Israel is following a plan for escalating pressure on Hamas to force it to agree to its demands that the hostages be released. It cut off supplies of humanitarian goods and the last electricity link earlier this month, and on Tuesday launched airstrikes that it warned could expand into ground-based raids. The strikes killed more than 400 people in Gaza, according to Palestinian health authorities, who don’t say how many were combatants.

Israel said the surprise strikes targeted midranking Hamas military commanders, political leaders and military infrastructure.

Analysts assessed that the moves were an extension of Israel’s diplomatic strategy and not yet a return to full-scale war with ground troops.

“As long as it’s an aerial bombardment it can still be part of a negotiation tactic,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.

Israeli security analysts briefed on Israel’s plan of escalation say a major ground operation is being organised. They expect that Israel will attack areas across Gaza at once, using a bigger force now that it doesn’t need to keep most of its manpower on its northern border to defend against attacks by Lebanese militia Hezbollah. They also expect Israel to hold ground and take greater responsibility for handing out humanitarian aid, depriving Hamas of a key source of control.

Israel had agreed to a multiphase ceasefire in January, the first phase involving the return of 33 Israeli hostages, eight of them dead, and five Thai hostages, in exchange for the release of more than 1,700 Palestinian prisoners and a surge of aid into Gaza.

Talks to move on to the next phase – a permanent end to the fighting in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages – stalled after Israel refused to give up its ability to keep attacking Hamas and the militant group refused to accept formulas that would free more hostages in exchange for extending the ceasefire.

While renewing the war is unpopular for most Israelis, so was keeping the ceasefire alive without drawing further concessions from Hamas.

The renewed fighting has also allowed Netanyahu to strengthen his alliance with far-right allies ahead of looming divisive votes on exempting the ultraorthodox from the military and on the national budget, which if not passed would automatically spark elections.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu struck a deal with Itamar Ben-Gvir to bring the far-right leader and his Jewish Power party back into his coalition. Ben-Gvir quit Netanyahu’s governing coalition when the ceasefire took effect in January and has been demanding a renewal of the war before returning.

Abraham Diskin, a political scientist with the Kohelet Policy Forum, a conservative Jerusalem-based think tank, said the government has decided to take a risk on the hostage issue to achieve what it sees as the critical goal of removing Hamas from power at a time when polarisation inside Israel has reached unprecedented levels.

“It’s probably the worst and most dangerous division in the history of Israel since its establishment,” he said. “It really risks our very existence.”

Dow Jones