The outlines of a potential peace deal in Ukraine are fast taking shape, but the great mystery remains – is Vladimir Putin really interested in peace, or is he playing with Donald Trump?
Trump is scattering all precedents aside in his headlong rush to strike a deal with the Russian dictator to end the war, offending everyone from Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to Europe and the UN.
The US President’s appeasement of Putin so far has unnerved the Western world, with the latest insult being the US decision to vote with Russia against a General Assembly resolution calling out Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
The US vote, on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, was a craven sellout to Putin, but that’s how Trump has chosen to play this game. Yet if Trump succeeds in flattering Putin to the negotiating table and striking a fair ceasefire deal, Trump will be forgiven for his wildly unconventional approach.
But the great mystery is what Putin is willing to concede in any potential deal. While everyone else has talked, Putin has remained silent.
Trump made the massive claim, in his press conference with French leader Emmanuel Macron in Washington, that Putin had told him he would agree with the stationing of European troops in Ukraine as part of a peace deal. If true, then this is a significant development given that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told US officials in Saudi Arabia last week that the Kremlin would not accept European troops stationed in Ukraine.
This is an essential plank in any ceasefire deal because Ukraine would never accept any deal in which European troops did not play a part in its future security.
France and Britain are reported to be developing plans for a 30,000-strong force of mostly European troops to be stationed in Ukraine but not along the actual frontline, which is likely to become a demilitarised zone.
But Trump speaking on behalf of Putin should not instil anyone with confidence that this is Moscow’s true position until we hear from the Russian leader himself.
The other big question hanging over this peace process is whether Trump is willing to give security guarantees to any European military force in Ukraine, short of deploying US troops.
Macron implored Trump at the White House that Europe needed “solidarity” from the US to provide security guarantees to Ukraine in any peace deal.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who will also visit Trump in Washington this week, has also said a “US backstop” to security guarantees is needed to remove any temptation by Putin to reinvade Ukraine in the future.
What this means in reality is unclear. It could range from US military support for the European mission to a straight pledge to give military assistance if that force was attacked by Russia in years to come.
Trump has given no hint about how he feels on this issue. He does not want any deal that could suck America into a new war so it seems unlikely that he would provide any guarantee of automatic US military support for Kyiv.
These negotiations are now moving fast, with Trump claiming a deal might be made within weeks. Zelensky is likely to visit Washington in the near future to try to patch over the tensions between the two leaders caused by Trump’s outburst last week that the Ukraine leader was a “dictator without elections”.
But the growing speculation about a peace deal will remain precisely that until the one key player – Putin – shows his hand.
“I really believe that he wants to make a deal,” Trump said of Putin. “I may be wrong, but I believe he wants to make a deal.”
We will soon see whether Trump is right, or whether Putin is leading Trump and the West into an embarrassing dead end.
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