Iran-US tensions open way for ISIS revival

Tensions between the US and Iran provide a comeback opportunity for extremist group Islamic State.

A Shi’ite Muslim girl holds a poster of killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani as she takes part in an anti-US protest in Lahore, Pakistan. Picture: AFP

Islamic State’s self-styled “caliphate” across parts of Iraq and Syria seemed largely ­defeated last year, with the loss of its territory, the killing of its founder in a US raid and an unprecedented crackdown on its social media propaganda machine.

But tensions between the US and Iran and the resulting clash over the US military presence in the region provide a comeback opportunity for the extremist group, whose remnants have been gradually building a guerrilla campaign over the past year, experts say.

American troops in Iraq had to pause their operations against ISIS for nearly two weeks amid the tensions. From the other side, Iranian-backed Iraqi militiamen who once focused on fighting the militants have turned their attention to evicting US troops from the Middle East.

In the meantime, Islamic State group sleeper cells intensified ambushes in Iraq and Syria in the past few weeks, killing and wounding dozens of their opponents in both countries. Activists and residents say the attacks have intensified since the US killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a January 3 drone strike at Baghdad airport.

It is not clear whether the rise is related to the repercussions that followed from the strike, and it is possible some of the ­attacks had been planned before Soleimani’s killing. US officials deny seeing any particular ­increase in ISIS activities.

“They haven’t taken advantage of it, as far as we can see,” said James Jeffrey, the State ­Department envoy to the international coalition fighting ISIS.

Mervan Qamishlo, a spokesman for Syria’s US-backed Kurdish-led force, said the intensification of Islamic State attacks began even earlier, since October, when Turkey began a military operation against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria.

Still, the militants clearly gained at least temporary breathing room as the killing of Soleimani, along with a senior Iraqi militia leader, brought Iran and the US to the brink of all-out war and outraged Iraqis, who considered the strike a flagrant breach of sovereignty.

“This tension will for sure help Daesh, as all forces fighting it become busy with other matters,” warned Abdullah Suleiman Ali, a Syrian researcher who focuses on jihadi groups, using the Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

Among other things, he said Iran-US tensions gave ISIS the chance to restructure as its new leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, strengthens his grip.

“The day the American-­Iranian clash began, Daesh started intensifying its ­attacks,” said Rami Aburrahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

With these strikes, Islamic State is “taking advantage to boost its influence” and send a message to their supporters that they are still strong, said Omar Abu Laila, an activist from Deir el-Zour now based in Europe.

The group is also trying to ­restore its presence on social media and the internet — a key component to its ability to raise ­financial support from abroad and recruit new fighters.

In recent weeks, European authorities have shut thousands of Islamic State propaganda platforms and communication channels in an unprecedented crackdown, forcing ISIS’s news agency and other channels off the Telegram text messaging system, the group’s primary outlet since 2015.

AP