Iran and Israel face their moment of judgment on war or peace

Israeli military chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi chairs a meeting of the general staff the day after the Iranian strikes at the weekend. Picture: IDF via AFP

This is the moment of truth in the Middle East, when Israel and Iran, two powers which utterly detest each other, weigh the cost of war against the benefits of peace.

The next 48 hours is likely to determine whether or not the region is hurtling towards a broader war. Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran appears, at first blush, to have been a limited one, confined to just one military base near Isfahan. This is an encouraging sign that a broader war is now less likely than likely. But it is too early to say if Israel will launch other, larger attacks against Iran or against its proxies in other countries in the hours or days ahead.

At the time of writing, Israel had made no official comment about its actions or intentions.

If this single strike on Isfahan is the whole of Israel’s retaliatory response, then it’s clearly pulling its punches to minimise the risk of further escalation in its confrontation with Iran.

This would place Iran in an awkward position, given its foreign minister just hours before the strike threatened an “immediate and maximum” response from Tehran if his country was attacked.

Would Iran want to risk further escalation of a conflict with Israel on the basis of a single retaliatory strike that was a far smaller attack than the more than 300 drones and missiles Tehran sent hurtling at Israel six days ago?

The next 48 hours is likely to confirm the extent of the Israeli strike and the reaction by Iran.

It is clear that neither country wants a full-scale war against the other but each is determined to save face in their growing tit-for-tat military confrontations.

One Israeli official reportedly claimed the limited strike was a warning shot to Tehran to show that Israel had the ability to strike deep into Iran if it wanted. This success is in sharp contrast to the failure of Iran’s strike against Israel six days ago when 99 per cent of its missiles and drones were shot down, with the entire attack resulting in only minor damage to an Israeli air base.

If Israel’s response to Iran’s attack last week is merely a hit against a single military target, then Iran can count itself lucky. Israel has the military capability to cause enormous damage to Tehran’s military, including to its nuclear sites where it is clandestinely preparing the ability to build a nuclear weapon.

But for Israel, this is not the time to engage in major war with Iran. It is already engulfed in fighting on three borders; in Gaza where it is fighting its now six-month war against Hamas, on its northern border where it is exchanging almost daily missile exchanges with Hezbollah; and on the West Bank where extreme unrest between Palestinians and Israeli security and settlers threatens to spiral out of control.

If Israel has decided to use restraint in its response to Iran, it will be welcomed by the US at a time when Joe Biden has been highly critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza. But even if this immediate confrontation does not lead to a broader war, the parameters of the Middle East have been changed forever by the events of this past week.

Iran’s decision to directly attack Israel was unprecedented, and a sign that the Islamic regime is becoming bolder and more reckless in its determination to confront and destroy Israel. None of this bodes well for a future and lasting peace in the region. An immediate war between Israel and Iran may have been averted for now, but it would be naive to believe that the danger is past.