If Israel has killed Sinwar, it would give a much-needed boost to its campaign to destroy Hamas
Israel’s attempted assassination of Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar marks a dramatic attempt to reboot its stalled military campaign in Gaza as Benjamin Netanyahu struggles to fulfil his pledge to fully defeat the terrorist group.
The fate of the 50-year-old Sinwar was unclear at the time of writing although Israeli media cited defence sources saying they were ‘optimistic’ that Sinwar had been killed in massive, multiple strikes on an underground Hamas command and control facility near the European Hospital in Khan Younis.
Sinwar, like other Hamas leaders before him, chooses to hide beneath hospitals, displaying contempt for the safety of the Palestinians he claims to serve.
His death would deliver a massive and much-needed victory for Israel at a time when its fortunes on the battlefield and its backing from allies, including Europe and the US, have taken a hit.
Sinwar took over Hamas in Gaza following the death of his older brother and long-time Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar from an Israeli drone strike last October.
Since then Sinwar has become a central player in Hamas’s survival, having overseen the recruitment of a new wave of fighters and holding out against Israeli demands to disarm and abandon administrative power in Gaza.
His death would complete the decapitation of Hamas’s senior leadership following the death of Yahya Sinwar and three of his top deputies last year including the group’s top military commander Mohammed Deif in Gaza and Hamas’s political head Ismail Haniyeh.
The assassination attempt, which occurred at short notice after Israeli forces reportedly traced his location, comes at a time when Israel desperately needs a circuit breaker in its war against Hamas.
Despite 18 months of fighting, a massive civilian death toll in Gaza and the deaths of more than 400 Israeli soldiers, Netanyahu has been unable to fulfil his promise to militarily defeat Hamas or remove it from power in Gaza.
Yes, Hamas has been crippled as a coherent military force in the enclave and it no longer poses an existential threat to Israel. But it continues to replenish its ranks with young jihadists and has the ability to conduct small-scale strikes against Israeli soldiers inside Gaza.
There is no sign that this will end and it is clear that Israel is nearing the limits of what is militarily possible against Hamas even if there are further waves of attacks on the group in the months ahead.
This is why Netanyahu is now preparing to change tactics, saying he will launch a major ground invasion of Gaza as early as the weekend. But this time he says Israeli troops will stay in the territory they occupy to prevent Hamas from returning once Israeli troops move on.
Netanyahu says Gazans will be moved out of those occupied areas for their “safety”. But this plan raises more questions than it answers: It would dislodge Gazans from their homes yet again, but where do they go if Israel continues to gain territory?
There are more than 1.2 million people in the enclave with only limited territory for them to move to in massive numbers. Is it therefore impractical, and would it have terrible humanitarian consequences?
And how would this guarantee the eventual defeat of Hamas? If Israel chose to occupy the entire Gaza Strip it would obviously be forced to station its troops among the population, exposing Israeli forces to a perpetual guerrilla campaign against them.
Few Israelis, outside Netanyahu’s cabinet and right-wing nationalists, appear to support this proposed new offensive, which requires a fresh call-up of exhausted Israeli troops. Israelis are divided over it, Israel’s allies like the EU are opposed to it and Donald Trump is conspicuously giving Netanyahu the cold shoulder this week by touring the Middle East without visiting Israel.
The key question Israel must confront now is this: is it better to fight on indefinitely in the hope that Hamas will one day collapse? Or should Israel – knowing it has crippled Hamas as a military threat to Israel – end the war via a deal that frees the remaining hostages and creates a third party to administer Gaza?
The Trump administration – Israel’s best friend – is pressuring Israel behind the scenes to consider the second option, while still professing to back its mission to destroy Hamas.
The conflict in Gaza is now reaching a tipping point. If Israel has killed Mohammed Sinwar, it would deliver a small glimmer of hope that Hamas might be more willing to negotiate a ceasefire on more favourable terms for Israel. But don’t bet on it.
After 18 months of fighting, Israel’s dream of crushing Hamas out of existence is fading, if indeed it was ever possible.
Trump may soon be tempted to call for a realistic plan B and a dose of realpolitik to end the war in Gaza.
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