How Trump could approach crucial Ukraine ceasefire talks with Putin

A phone call to discuss ending the war in Ukraine will test the US President’s ‘great relationship’ with the Russian leader.

US President Donald Trump and Russia President Vladimir Putin have much to discuss about a ceasefire. Picture: AFP

On one side, President Trump, whose bid to end the war in Ukraine is a cornerstone of his foreign policy ambitions.

On the other, President Putin, who has called the three-year-old conflict a “sacred” battle for Russia’s very future.

On Tuesday the two men will speak by phone in arguably Trump’s most important conversation with a foreign leader since he returned to the White House in January. Something, it seems, has to give.

The call will be a test of Trump’s self-professed “great relationship” with Putin as he seeks to persuade him to agree to a US-backed 30-day unconditional ceasefire.

Putin said last week that Russia was in favour of the ceasefire proposal, but only if it led to the eradication of the “root causes” of the war. The term is a Kremlin byword for President Zelensky’s pro-western government.

Putin also said that Russia would insist on a ban on western arms deliveries to Ukraine during any truce, as well as a halt to Kyiv’s mobilisation of troops.

Delaying tactics

The two leaders held their first official talks of Trump’s second term last month.

Mikhail Kasyanov, Putin’s first prime minister, said that the Russian president would stick to his demands in his conversation with Trump.

Putin’s aim, he said, was to buy time for Russia’s slowly advancing army and convince Trump that the easiest way to end the conflict is to put pressure on Ukraine, rather than Russia.

The US president has already said he finds it simpler to negotiate with Moscow than Kyiv.

“Putin is not ready for any compromises in the next three to four months. He will drag out time by saying things that are pleasant for Trump,” said Kasyanov, who has been in opposition to Putin for about 20 years and now lives in exile in Europe.

Placards reading 'Dump Trump', 'Stop Putin' and 'Trump (is a) blackmailer' state the case of pro-Ukraine protesters in Berlin on March 9. Picture: AFP

“He understands that Trump wants a ceasefire as quickly as possible and so [Trump] will make concessions to Putin by putting pressure on Ukraine.”

Kasyanov predicted that mounting economic problems in Russia caused by western sanctions would force Putin to seek an exit strategy from the war by the end of the year.

“He will be ready for some concessions then,” he said.

“But Ukraine must survive until the end of the year. So [military] aid to Ukraine is extremely important now.”

Russians hail Trump reversal

Trump’s startling reversal of decades of US policy towards Moscow has been greeted with near euphoria in Russia.

The proportion of Russians with a positive view of the US has almost doubled to 30 per cent since Trump secured a return to the White House in November, according to an opinion poll by the independent Levada Centre in Moscow.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Putin’s call with Trump would be an opportunity to “revive” US-Russia relations.

However, the indications are that Putin cares more about achieving his goals in Ukraine than a possibly short-lived improvement in relations with Washington.

He has said that Ukraine must surrender four regions in its east and south, as well as Crimea, before there can be any peace.

Moscow also wants “iron-clad” guarantees that Ukraine will not be offered membership of NATO in the future.

Putin tipped to undermine Zelensky

Sergey Radchenko, an expert on Russian foreign policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said that Putin would probably use Tuesday’s talks to “flatter” Trump and “tempt him with visions of a ‘great’ Russian-American relationship and economic ‘deals’”.

He said: “He will continue in his effort to undermine Zelensky, in the expectation that Trump will deliver Zelensky’s head on a silver platter.

“I don’t think he will back down from his core political goals in Ukraine. So, in my view, the key question is not whether Putin will sacrifice a better relationship with Trump for Ukraine, but whether Trump might sacrifice Ukraine for a better relationship with Putin, or just say, ‘I did my best – and it didn’t work, because … [Joe] Biden, Zelensky, the hard-headed Europeans,’ etc.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is likely to be undermined by Putin in the talks. Picture: Getty Images

Radchenko also said that Putin would probably try to secure US recognition for Russian claims to occupied Ukrainian territory, and he would want to “sabotage” Sir Keir Starmer’s “coalition of the willing”.

The British prime minister has said that “a significant number” of countries, including Britain and France, are willing to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after a peace deal is agreed. Moscow has said it is opposed to the presence of military personnel from NATO countries and has warned that they could face unspecified “consequences”.

Two options for Trump

Trump has said that he could cause Russia “devastating” economic pain if Moscow refuses to agree to the ceasefire deal.

However, he has not provided details of how he would achieve this and some analysts have said there is little that Trump can realistically do to force Putin to peace.

Russia is already the world’s most sanctioned country and its economy has performed far better than most western analysts predicted at the start of its invasion in 2022.

Kirill Martynov, the editor of Novaya Gazeta Europe, a Russian opposition news website, said: “For some reason, it is believed that Trump has some kind of magic button with which he can threaten Putin. And that by pressing it, he can scare Putin and make him accept his conditions.”

“In fact, Trump has two options. Either agree to some of Putin’s conditions and engage in something more pleasant [in US-Russian relations], or return to the Biden administration’s strategy, which he is unlikely to want to do,” he told TV Dozhd, an independent Russian television station that has been banned by Moscow.

Even if Trump does manage to convince Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, the prospect of a long-lasting peace appears far-off.

Andrii Sybiha, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said on Monday: “We are talking about a temporary truce. This is in no way a frozen conflict.”

The Times