Glimmer of hope in Cambodia as hard son of gun to take reins

Strongman Hun Sen, after another orchestrated election triumph, will step aside from 38 years in power for scion Hun Manet.

Hun Manet, after voting last month, has sworn to act on the advice of his father Hun Sen. Picture: AFP

An imminent hereditary succession of a dictatorship might not be an obvious cause for optimism.

Yet Cambodian strongman Hun Sen’s recent announcement, after another orchestrated election triumph, that he will step aside after 38 years in power for his son Hun Manet has had a curious effect on a population cowed by escalating repression.

The rise of Cambodia’s princelings – roles from prime minister to interior, defence and foreign minister and central bank governor are being passed to the adult children of senior government figures – is being seen inside the Southeast Asian nation as a rare opportunity.

Some point to 45-year-old Hun Manet’s western education (including West Point and Bristol University) as a hopeful indicator of future reforms – though realists are quick to note North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad were also schooled in the west.

Others are simply relieved to see a changing of the old guard after almost four decades.

“Yes I know he is his father’s son. Yes, it is not democratic. But I still find it exciting because trust me, this kind of major change does not come often in the kingdom,” Cambodian blogger Darathtey Din wrote this week of Hun Manet’s August 22 inauguration.

Even some analysts have allowed themselves a measure of hope, notwithstanding Hun Sen’s insistence the handover will see no change in governance style – one marked by years of civil liberties roll-backs, corruption and the crushing of opposition forces.

The 70-year-old will remain head of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and has vowed to resume leadership if his son “fails to meet expectations”. Hun Manet has sworn to act on his father’s advice “in all circumstances’.

Still, says Ou Virak, director of the Future Forum think tank and a human rights activist, the fact change is happening at all is exciting to many Cambodians who are “tired of the old politics and fed up with old rivalries between Hun Sen and (exiled opposition leader) Sam Rainsy”.

Hun Sen inaugurates the Phnom Penh ring road No.3 on Thursday. Picture: AFP

Even some rusted-on supporters of the dissolved opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party and its disqualified successor Candlelight Party see reason for optimism.

“It’s similar to the situation in the US right now. You’re not looking for the best out there. You’re looking for the least bad,” Mr Ou told The Weekend Australian.

Just the fact Hun Manet, a father-of-three with a PhD from New York University, speaks English is an opportunity for deeper engagement, he insists.

More important still is the chance to break old narratives that have dominated engagement between the west and Cambodia’s Cold War-era old guard.

“Most grew up on the wrong side of the Cold War and find it difficult to trust the West”, while western nations “never really accepted Hun Sen as legitimate”, he says. “Those old scars and conflicts can be put aside under the new generation leadership. If there is an opportunity for rapprochement then Hun Manet may decide to not over-rely on China.”

Cambodia’s growing reliance on Chinese investment and loans – repaid by allowing Beijing unprecedented access to key military bases – has alarmed Washington and Canberra.

Singapore was quick to point that out this week, with its Straits Times mouthpiece urging the US to “calibrate” its condemnation of Cambodia’s sham elections and “not offend the incoming ruler”.

“That Mr Hun Sen should think of leaving office at age 70, when some global leaders older than him are running for re-election, should be taken as a sign that he may be using his retirement as a potential opportunity for his successor to reset certain relationships that had tied his own hands down for so long,” it said.

Griffith University’s Lee Morgenbesser says such messages peddle “false hopes” and ignore Hun Manet’s association with key organs of repression; as army chief, national counter-terrorism commander and head of the CPP’s overseas operations unit responsible for intimidation of diaspora communities in Australia and the US. “He has been directly linked to the repressive side of the regime and I don’t think that should be overlooked just because he has a western education,” says Professor Morgenbesser. “The fact he has occupied all these positions is not very encouraging ”