Five things to watch for at China’s most important political meeting

Thinned out by yet another wave of purges, Xi Jinping and his top officials are about to meet in Beijing for the ‘Two Sessions’. Here are five things to watch for at China’s most important annual political meeting.

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks to Premier Li Qiang after his ‘work report’ speech last March in the Great Hall of the People.Picture: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

BEIJING: Internet restrictions have been tightened. Traffic barricades are being erected. Security personnel are out in even greater numbers than usual around Beijing’s Tiananmen precinct.

China’s biggest annual political gathering has almost begun. The “Two Sessions”, starts on Tuesday with the opening of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China’s top political advisory body. The more important National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislature, begins on Wednesday.

The week-long gathering of thousands of President Xi Jinping’s comrades will be as tightly managed as Donald Trump’s White House is freewheeling. As with most things concerning China, the stakes will be huge for Australia. Here are five things to watch.

Economy

In the centrepiece of the political event on Wednesday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will deliver his “work report” speech in the Great Hall of the People. It functions a bit like a budget speech in Australia or the State of the Union address in America.

It will reveal China’s annual GDP growth target. Last year it was “around 5 per cent”, a figure that China’s economy slightly outperformed, according to Beijing’s official statistics.

A similar target is expected for 2025 – slow compared to China’s boom years, but still big enough to account for almost one third of global growth.

Premier Li and his senior economic officials will also give guidance on policies they will use to reach this target amid China’s ongoing property sector gloom. Many analysts expect an increase in Beijing’s fiscal debt level.

Military

Budget papers will reveal the size of China’s military spending, which is likely to outpace economic growth as it did last year.

It grew by 7.2 per cent to 1.67 trillion yuan ($360bn) in 2024, although many analysts believe China’s actual military spending is much higher still.

The Two Sessions will also display the scale of the purge that continues to topple senior PLA officials. Fourteen military delegates who were at last year’s meeting will not be present because they have been ensnared in corruption investigations, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

Analysts will be looking for another four military delegates who have recently disappeared from public view.

Geopolitics

Premier Li’s work report will include some commentary on China’s international environment. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a trusted Xi adviser, will expand on the subject at a highly choreographed press conference.

The Trump administration’s treatment of Ukraine will give him ample material to present China as a benevolent global power, but also one that will not be pushed around. “Let the strong do as they will. We remain as unperturbed as the gentle breeze caresses the hills,” Wang said at last month’s Munich Security Conference in an address titled: “A Steadfast Constructive Force in a Changing World”.

In an apparent attempt to disturb Beijing’s calm, Trump has announced a further 10 per cent tariff to be applied on all imports from China this week.

Xi Jinping

The least predictable part of the Two Sessions will be the interventions made by President Xi.

Two years ago, he used the event to tell advisers that “Western countries, led by the United States, have implemented comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression against China.”

Those unusually direct comments, published all over Chinese state media, suggested Beijing was feeling pressure from the Biden administration’s co-ordination with allies.

In the coming days, he may make a similar intervention, although many expect a softer tone. “Xi is treading carefully, likely seeking to avoid provoking Trump, as he may view an in-person meeting as a way to slow the momentum of US tariffs, sanctions, and export controls,” argue Neil Thomas and Jing Qian at the Asia Society.

DeepSeek

Throughout the week there is likely to be much talk about Chinese AI champion DeepSeek. Officials will outline ways it can help improve the productivity of China’s economy. It will also be celebrated as an example of China’s increasing scientific and technological development, a top priority for Beijing.

The budget is likely to further ramp up science and technology spending, which grew by 10 per cent last year.

Jin Zhuanglong, who as China’s technology minister played a key role in the push to become a tech superpower, will not take place in the congress. Late last Friday, Beijing announced he had been removed as a minister, following reports that he had been caught in a corruption probe.