Donald Trump indictment could boost gop primary bid, but hurt rematch with Biden

The indictment against Donald Trump could further alienate swing voters turned off by the controversies that continue to swirl around him since he left office.

Supporters of former Donald Trump outside a gun store in Georgia. Picture AFP.

The indictment of Donald Trump is unlikely to derail his 2024 White House bid and could help in the GOP primary, but it could also further alienate swing voters turned off by the controversies that continue to swirl around him since he left office.

The unprecedented nature of a former president facing criminal charges, in a case involving a hush-money payment to a porn star, carries many unknowns. But Mr Trump’s strategy is already in view, following hard-hitting tactics he has used throughout a short, turbulent political career.

Mr Trump, who denies any wrongdoing in the case, is banking on Republicans – including those wobbling over whether to continue to support him – siding with his claim that the system is out to get him and crush the movement he started. “They only want to lock me up because I’m the one thing standing between them and YOU,” read one of the fundraising emails Mr Trump’s campaign sent. He has repeatedly attacked Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr., a Democrat, as being partisan and linked him to liberal billionaire donor George Soros.

Overall, 57 per cent of Americans think Mr Trump should be disqualified from running again should he face criminal charges, but among Republicans, 75 per cent think it shouldn’t be disqualifying, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this week. And 93 per cent of Republicans, plus 70 per cent of independent voters think the New York case is mainly motivated by politics, as compared with 66 per cent of Democrats who think the case is mainly motivated by the law, the poll showed.

The former president has seen his frontrunner status rise in a number of recent surveys. A spokesman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday evening.

“This is a political witch-hunt, trying to take down the leading candidate, by far, in the Republican Party,” Mr Trump said recently.

Mr Trump didn’t mention the prosecutor by name during a rally Saturday in Texas, but he railed against the case and his other legal problems, saying they amounted to an attack on his supporters. “Our opponents have done everything they can to crush our spirit and to break our will,” he said as people held up signs that read Witch Hunt. “But they failed. They’ve only made us stronger. And 2024 is the final battle, it’s going to be the big one.” On the legal front, Mr Trump is relying on a scattered team of lawyers and advisers with little sign of a coordinated strategy beyond attacking investigators, seeking to delay proceedings and casting himself as the victim of a conspiracy.

A number of leading Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.), have echoed his calls that the prosecution is politically motivated. Three House GOP committee chairmen have pressed for Mr Bragg to provide documents and testimony about his investigation; a Bragg spokeswoman said the politicians were seeking to “disrupt and undermine the legitimate work of our dedicated prosecutors.” “There’s many reasons not to support Donald Trump. There’s many reasons why he should not be president,” moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) said last week. “But you’ve got to be very careful. The court system should not be perceived to be involved in the political process.” Asked whether the expected indictment could help Mr Trump politically, Mr Manchin said, “I think it might have the reverse effect of what people might be thinking … it just emboldens.” Mr Trump retains an avid following and leads in most primary polls. His loyal supporters were unfazed when The Wall Street Journal broke the hush-payment story in 2018 and are unlikely to back away now. It harks back to numerous scandals that Mr Trump has endured, including the surfacing a month before the 2016 election of an Access Hollywood recording in which he speaks in crude sexual terms about women.

“His people have held firm through thick and thin,” said Pennsylvania pollster Terry Madonna. “I don’t think that his being prosecuted necessarily causes him to lose a considerable amount of his support.”

Mr Trump also sees an opportunity to attack his chief rival for the nomination, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who last week criticised the New York investigation but also took a dig at Mr Trump for his alleged involvement in such a seedy scheme. Mr Trump has painted the governor as disloyal.

Mr Trump has long sought to turn controversy to his benefit, and the latest one puts Mr Trump squarely back where he craves to be – in the spotlight.

“Any development that stands to render the primary a referendum on the former president is bad news for anyone seeking to turn the page,” said GOP strategist Liam Donovan.

Still, Mr Trump shed more moderate GOP voters and independents in his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. Republican angst intensified following the November midterm elections in which a number of high profile candidates backed by Mr Trump lost.

And while many Republicans and some Democrats question the validity of the New York case, Mr Trump faces myriad other legal problems, including federal probes into his effort to overturn the 2020 election, the resulting Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and his storage of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago compound in Florida.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is weighing entering the GOP presidential primary, criticised Mr Bragg for pursuing the case, but added that “the idea that an indictment will make for a better and stronger candidate is also ridiculous.”

Dow Jones