Democrat alarm at poll surge for Donald Trump

Former president is on track to win the election according to a new poll that underscores the steep challenge Joe Biden faces to be re-elected.

The survey of 980 American voters last week found that Joe Biden’s disapproval rating had increased to 47 per cent, the highest yet of his presidency. Picture: AFP

Surging support for Donald Trump among black and Latino Americans as President Joe Biden’s disapproval rating increases to its highest level ever, has put the former president on track to comfortably win his third bid for the White House, according to an influential poll.

The horror poll for Democrats, which reflected odds in betting markets, came days before Super Tuesday, when voters in 15 states will vote to pick their preferred presidential candidates, contests expected to confirm Mr Trump has all but thrashed his sole remaining rival, ex-South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, for the Republican nomination.

Mr Trump would win 48 per cent of the national vote compared to Mr Biden’s 43 per cent, according to The New York Times poll, which pointed to an extraordinary – and worrying for Democrats – surge in support among non-white, working-class voters, a traditional Democratic constituency, for Mr Trump.

The survey of 980 American voters last week found the President’s disapproval rating had increased to 47 per cent, the highest yet during his presidency, as voters continued to express frustration with the economy: more than twice as many believed Mr Biden’s policies had hurt them as believed had helped them.

Alarmingly for the White House, the poll showed 24 per cent support among black voters for Mr Trump, up from 4 per cent in 2020, while for the first time in the history of the poll Latino voters preferred a Republican presidential candidate, Mr Trump, by 46 per cent to 40 per cent, a 39-percentage-point turnaround from 2020.

“The non-white working class is not particularly progressive while the Democratic Party has become more so,” noted political scientist Guy Teixeira, from the American Enterprise Institute. “Democrats need to win the college-educated by way more than they lose the working class to win elections – mathematically possible but very challenging.”

Michael Tyler, one of Mr Biden’s campaign managers, told Axios he was “ignoring the noise”, saying Republicans were “weak, cash-strapped and deeply divided”.

“Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates

Donald Trump campaigns in Richmond, Virginia, on Saturday. Picture: AFP

Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden,” he added.

Mr Trump and Ms Haley held duelling rallies in North Carolina on Saturday (Sunday AEDT), one of the biggest states to head to the polls on Tuesday along with California and Texas.

“I stand before you today, not only as your past but also hopefully as your future president as a proud political dissident, and as a public enemy of a rogue regime,” Mr Trump said at his rally in Greensboro, declaring his rival and one-time UN ambassador “very average”.

The former president has had a mixed few weeks, enduring huge financial penalties from New York courts for fraud and defamation as he achieved big victories in Republican primaries and enjoyed a likely significant delay in the start date of his federal criminal trials.

In state capital Raleigh, Ms Haley, who has steadily ramped up her attacks on Mr Trump after decisively losing every Republican primary contest so far, blasted him after one of his campaign officials said lobbyists in Washington who did not vote for Mr Trump would struggle to get access to a Trump administration.

“We lost in 2018. We lost in 2020. We lost in 2022 … How many more times do we have to lose before we realise maybe Donald Trump is the problem?” Ms Haley said.

Mr Trump has won 215 delegates after winning Missouri’s and Idaho’s Republican caucuses on Saturday (Sunday AEDT) of the 1215 he needs to secure the Republican nomination for president.

Ms Haley, who is expected to drop out of the race after Super Tuesday unless she can pull off a political miracle, has accrued 24.

The New York Times poll showed Ms Haley would defeat Mr Biden more easily, 45 per cent to 35 per cent in a head-to-head contest, than Mr Trump would.