Donald Trump has finally lost patience with Vladimir Putin’s stonewalling of a ceasefire in Ukraine in a tipping point that could have huge consequences for the war.
Trump’s claim that the Russian dictator had gone “absolutely crazy”, and that “I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin” after Russia launched its largest aerial bombing of Ukraine since the war began, marks a huge shift from the US President’s previous appeasement of Putin.
It suggests Trump has finally – many would say belatedly – come to the conclusion that Putin does not want peace and the peace process Trump has pushed for months is going nowhere.
If so, it is a big blow for Trump, who has staked his reputation on the belief he has a special personal relationship with Putin and that the two could hammer out a deal to end the war where others had not.
Trump’s fervent belief in his ability to persuade Putin led him to dark places in an attempt to lure Putin to the negotiating table. Trump flattered and pandered to the Russia leader, refusing to blame him for the invasion of Ukraine, refusing to discuss new sanctions on Moscow, and promoting the carve-up of Ukraine along the current frontlines.
At the same time, Trump was tough on Ukraine, the victim of Russia’s aggression, refusing to give it any security guarantees in any ceasefire, ruling out its eventual membership of NATO and provoking leader Volodymyr Zelensky in their now infamous Oval Office brawl.
While these concessions and this behaviour horrified much of the Western world, Trump would have been forgiven these excesses if they actually helped to end the war. It was a high-stakes gamble.
But Putin’s provocative decision to launch such a furious bombardment on innocent Ukrainians in the middle of negotiations about possible peace talks was akin to jabbing his thumb in Trump’s eye. It appears to have confirmed for Trump what the rest of the world had already concluded – Putin does not want peace.
With Trump apparently losing patience with Putin, the critical question is what will he now do?
Will Trump seek to actively punish Putin by employing a raft of new sanctions on Russia, as he has now threatened to do? At the very least, Trump will end his tentative efforts to reward Putin with new trade deals or reinvite him to international forums to give his regime legitimacy.
Or will Trump be tempted to simply walk away and say Ukraine is no longer America’s problem? Following his failed two-hour phone call with Putin this month, in which he failed to win any solid concessions from the Russian leader, Trump had already begun the process of withdrawing from trying to broker a peace deal himself. He said then that it was up to Ukraine and Russia to sort out the prospect of peace – a highly unlikely prospect without Trump’s direct intervention.
Trump has already said it is up to Europe, not the US, to keep supplying military and other aid to Ukraine to allow it to keep fighting.
If no ceasefire is likely, neither Trump nor his isolationist MAGA wing of the Republican Party will be inclined to keep sending large military aid packages to Ukraine, given their previous opposition to the idea.
So if peace is not possible, Trump is likely to walk away from Ukraine to some degree. But he also cannot afford for Russia to actually win the war. Any US president who sat idle as Russian troops swept across Ukraine would be condemned by history, a legacy no president, not even Trump, would want.
It is difficult to see a way forward for any peace process now. Putin clearly does not want peace right now and Trump is in no position – even if he wanted to – to force Putin to the table. This means the world is likely to be saddled with this terrible war for a long time yet. Trump has failed to broker the peace he boasted he would deliver. But there is only one person truly to blame for this failure – Putin.
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