If Israel’s war against Hamas spreads beyond Gaza, it could be the Palestinians in the West Bank, rather than Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, who open a second front against it.
Violent protests have erupted across the West Bank after the hospital explosion in Gaza where Palestinians blamed Israel regardless of evidence that suggests otherwise.
This comes on top of growing fury about the deaths in the West Bank of at least 60 Palestinians at the hands of the Israeli security forces and far-right settlers since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.
The disputed territory has not yet spiralled out of control but it is a tinderbox just when Israel is preparing for the battle against Hamas in Gaza.
The danger of a broad uprising against Israel in the West Bank would represent less of a threat to Israel than an attack by the Iranian-proxy Hezbollah from Lebanon but it would still pose a major challenge to the nation’s security.
Unlike the well-armed Hezbollah, which could send barrages of missiles into Israel, any uprising in the West Bank could see a brutal guerrilla-style street battle between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. The second intifada between Palestinians and Israel between 2001 and 2004 cost the lives of about 1000 Israelis and 3200 Palestinians.
The risk of another Palestinian uprising is higher than at any time since the second intifada because violence in the West Bank was already soaring before this month’s murderous rampage by Hamas against Israel and the subsequent shelling of Gaza by Israel.
This year, a new younger generation of armed groups in the West Bank has carried out attacks inside Israel, killing 35 Israelis according to Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service.
Israel has responded with military raids across the West Bank which, along with attacks by far-right Jewish settlers, have killed at least 250 Palestinians.
Since the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, Israeli soldiers and settlers have killed more than 60 Palestinians and injured more than 1300, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry; 440 Palestinians have been arrested.
Many of these killings have been carried out by radical Jews who have settled in the West Bank. Israel’s far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has ordered that thousands of guns be given to settlers in the West Bank.
Palestinian anger is also directed at the Palestinian Authority, run by 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, which governs the West Bank in an ineffectual manner and which is seen as too close to Israel’s security forces.
These tensions have spilled out on to the street as Palestinian Authority security forces fired teargas and stun grenades to disperse Palestinian protesters in Ramallah after the deadly hospital explosion.
Some of the protesters were shouting “we will die for you Gaza”; others were waving Hamas flags despite the tense relationship between Hamas and the PA.
Hamas has urged Palestinians to rise up as one to confront Israeli forces and settlers in protest of Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Gaza.
So far that has not happened in a co-ordinated way, but the protests by Palestinians in the West Bank are becoming larger and more violent. Anger is rising.
When Israeli forces begin their expected ground offensive into Gaza, many more Palestinian casualties are inevitable and this will only fuel the darkening mood in the West Bank.
It is a dangerous situation … and there is no guarantee that it won’t erupt.
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