Coronavirus: two million could die in Bangladesh, UN warns

Bangladesh is facing up to two million deaths from the COVID-19 epidemic if immediate steps are not taken to suppress the virus.

People line up to shop for essential items from a roadside truck in Dhaka, Bangladesh on Wednesday. Picture: AP

Bangladesh is facing up to two million deaths from the COVID-19 epidemic if immediate steps are not taken to suppress the virus, a leaked inter-agency UN memo has warned.

The memo, seen by The Australian and titled Country Preparedness and Response Plan, was written jointly by UN agencies, the Bangladesh government, development partners and the World Health Organisation, the organisation’s country chief, Bardan Jung Rana, told online news site Netra News.

“Given the extraordinary human densities in Bangladesh, globally accepted modelling techniques and parameter assumptions forecast the impact of COVID-19 without interventions (to result in) between half a million up to 2 million lives lost during the epidemic wave,” according to the memo dated March 26.

“These figures are not surprising when considered against modelling in other countries but they are astounding and should serve as a call to action.”

The document makes further dire predictions of “rampant” infection among healthcare workers, given high patient densities in local hospitals, lack of medical protective clothing and infection prevention protocols, and a “complete saturation of the health system early in the epidemic”.

Some nine million people moved out of Greater Dhaka — an area of 21 million residents — before the government enforced a 10-day shutdown last Thursday, cancelling Independence Day celebrations, domestic flights, and shuttering all schools, offices and shops except essential services.

Bangladesh authorities have also asked more than a million Rohingya refugees sheltering within its borders to stay inside their makeshift camps until further notice.

But the UN memo warns that a lockdown will not be enough to suppress the virus and that the government must immediately crank up testing and contact-tracing, procure more hospital equipment and medical protective clothing, conduct healthcare training programs and community education.

Bangladesh has been agonisingly slow to implement testing and other measures aimed at curbing the spread of the virus.

So far it has confirmed only 48 cases and five deaths. It has so far conducted less than 1000 tests for a population of 160 million.

While the UN memo acknowledged that the government’s failure to lockdown the capital earlier “likely dispersed incubating and infectious individuals throughout the country”, it also observed the exodus may also lessen the case burden on overpopulated Dhaka.

The combined impact of government-imposed social distancing, school, business, and public transport closures nationally meant that the “COVID-19 reproductive rate will be at its lowest level since (the virus first appeared) in Bangladesh”.