Coronavirus: Jacinda Ardern on track for record-breaking win, poll shows

Even an awkward cafe moment has turned to gold for the Kiwi PM, whose handling of coronavirus has her party on track for a record election win.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Picture: Getty

Can Jacinda Ardern’s opponents find their own Jacinda Ardern?

They might need to if they’re to be competitive in New Zealand’s September election after a bombshell poll which spells trouble for opposition National leader Simon Bridges.

Mr Bridges’ leadership will come into sharp focus after a Newshub-Reid Research poll put his party at just 31 per cent - down 13 from their last poll and their 2017 election result.

In contrast, and as expected after her government’s masterly response to COVID-19, Ms Ardern’s Labour party is at 56 per cent.

If replicated on election day, that figure would be the highest in Labour’s history and enough to govern without current coalition partners NZ First and the Greens.

New Zealand has confirmed no new cases of coronavirus on the eve of the launch of the “digital diary” coronavirus tracking app, similar to Australia’s COVIDsafe application.

Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said that although the state recorded no new cases, four people who returned from Uruguay with the virus had been added to the country’s toll - but have since recovered - bringing the total number of cases to 1503.

The number of people who have died of the disease in New Zealand remains at 21 and just 45 cases remain active, a sign New Zealand is moving towards its previously stated goal of “eradicating” the virus.

Even awkward moments are turning to gold for Ardern, whose handling of a potentially embarrassing moment at the weekend, when she was initially turned away from a Wellington cafe that was too full under coronavirus guidelines, has been praised.

Ardern and her fiance, Clarke Gayford, decided to get brunch on Saturday at Olive, a restaurant in the capital Wellington.

“Omg Jacinda Ardern just tried to come into Olive and was rejected cause it’s full,” wrote one Twitter user, Joey.

Gayford took the time to respond: “I have to take responsibility for this, I didn’t get organised and book anywhere. Was very nice of them to chase us down st (street) when a spot freed up. A+ service.” Another Twitter user, Joanne, chimed in: “This has to be the most Kiwi tweet I’ve ever read … love it, love NZ.”

New Zealand National leader Simon Bridges. Picture: Getty

Ardern on the rise

The poll will resonate deepest with the opposition, who are mulling their best strategy to combat Ms Ardern, a prime minister ascendant.

Given those numbers would result in National’s caucus being reduced from 55 to around 39, there are plenty of nervous MPs who will be considering how to save their jobs.

Speaking with Australian Associated Press prior to the poll, a number of senior National MPs suggested a fair benchmark for their party would be 35 per cent. “If we’re polling in the high 30s, there’s something we can work with. Then we’re in the hunt,” one shadow Cabinet member said.

“If it’s lower, and it looks like people just aren’t listening, we’ve got problems.”

In considering a switch, National MPs will keep two election campaigns in their minds.

The first is the most recent, 2017, when Ms Ardern replaced Andrew Little as Labour leader just seven weeks out from the election, producing a “stardust” effect and a near 10-point bump in the polls.

The second is 2002, the last time National confronted a first-term Labour government, when the perennial powerhouse recorded its worst result. “If we’re below 35 per cent, well you can’t win an election or form a government,” another shadow Cabinet member said.

“And if you’re too low, people write you off. It’s what happened in 2002 when people worked out National weren’t going to win. So they went elsewhere to try and restrain Helen Clark’s government.”

Mr Bridges has enjoyed some political joy recently, leading a public backlash against Ms Ardern’s 10-person cap at funerals, which produced a policy backflip and extension to 50 people.

Also in Mr Bridges favour is the lack of an obvious replacement. Judith Collins is a long-time leadership aspirant but hasn’t been successful in previous ballots.

Another senior figure referred to Ms Collins as a “save the furniture” candidate.

Todd Muller and Mark Mitchell have also been touted as future leadership material, but have low nationwide profiles.

Whoever leads National will be doing so in tough economic times, with unemployment expected to peak later this year around 10 per cent. And they’ll be doing so against the stardust prime minister, riding high.

AAP