Conservatives fear poll will feed complacency

The YouGov poll shows Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party hurting the Tory vote more than Labour’s in the marginals. Picture: PA

When the 2017 snap election result came through, it proved a shock to many who had been covering the campaign in depth.

The bulk of the polls had suggested Theresa May was on course for a comfortable majority. However, there was one poll that had predicted a hung parliament — YouGov’s MRP model. This poll of 100,000 people uses a different method than normal — with predictions focused on small geographic areas based on a mix of data and demographic.

In 2017, it suggested the Tories were on course to lose 20 seats. A poll on Thursday painted a different picture — it suggested the Tories are on course for a large majority in the region of 68. The YouGov/Times poll says in an election held today, the Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Lib Dems 13. While this would mean a majority of 68 for the Tories, it would be less good news for Labour — counting as its second-worst post-war defeat. It would also be bad news for the Lib Dems. Far from Jo Swinson being prime minister, her party would technically lose seats — given the 20 it ended the parliament on thanks to prominent Tory and Labour switchers.

The MRP method offers seat-by-seat analysis. It suggests that the Tories’ strategy to break the so-called red wall of traditional Labour seats is working. The poll predicts the Tories would pick up 44 seats in total from Labour.

YouGov’s MRP model points to the Brexit Party hurting the Tories more than Labour in marginals between the two main parties. Meanwhile, the Brexit Party is not predicted to win a single seat.

There are several reasons this polling ought not to be taken as gospel. First, history tells us that polls are often wrong. Second, a lot could change in two weeks. Finally, the margins for a lot of these seats are tiny. In Scotland, Conservative-held seats are tight, with a mix of predictions from a one-percentage-point SNP lead to a five-point Tory lead. In Labour/Tory marginals that the Tories are currently on course to win, the percentages are as small as 1 per cent.

The poll is a cause of worry to senior Conservatives. It’s not because they expected to fare better. In fact, it’s the opposite. The Tories are generally happy with their campaign. What they are worried about is that a poll such as this makes voters feel complacent and thereby either stay at home or start to consider voting elsewhere to reduce the size of the majority. Likewise, it could kickstart opposition parties to think again about tactical voting.

The Spectator