China stands ready to use its muscle

US President Joe Biden has threatened fresh economic sanctions against Myanmar following Monday’s military coup, and vowed to work with its partners in the region and across the world to support the restoration of democracy there.

Calling the coup — in which civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and dozens of government officials, were detained — a “direct ­assault on the country’s transition to democracy and rule of law”, Mr Biden said the US had removed sanctions on Myanmar over the past decade based on progress ­toward democracy.

In reality, the US has few levers to pull against the powerful Myanmar military, known as the Tatmadaw. Washington already has sanctions against a dozen top Myanmar generals, including commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing, imposed under the Trump administration in response to the brutal 2017 crackdown against ­Rohingya Muslim civilians.

Those generals under sanction are accused of ordering the brutal military operations in which soldiers and militia committed extrajudicial killings, mass gang rapes, and forced disappearances.

But analysts have warned that reimposing broader economic sanctions risks alienating the country’s population and hurting public attitudes toward the West.

The US has little leverage on trade — it imported just $US969m worth of Myanmar products last year — while China is Myanmar’s largest trading partner and second largest foreign investor.

Beijing and Naypyidaw signed 33 deals on infrastructure, trade and energy projects last year aimed at linking the landlocked southwest portion of China to the Indian Ocean through the China Myanmar Economic Corridor.

Suu Kyi had played a delicate balancing game with China, ­increasing economic links with Beijing to reduce reliance on the west as it became increasingly vocal on human rights violations within Myanmar. But she had also rejected several key Chinese infrastructure projects that were deeply unpopular in Myanmar, chief among them the $3.6bn Myitsone hydropower dam project in northern Kachin state.

Anti-Chinese sentiment remains strong in Myanmar where people resent ethnic Chinese ­migration into the country and have not forgotten Beijing’s interference in ethnic conflicts along their 2200km-long land border.

But with the Myanmar junta likely to face fresh economic sanctions, and the country’s instability likely to discourage further Western investment, Myanmar will inevitably need to rely more heavily on China for economic support. The Chinese teleco giant Huawei is already building Myanmar’s 5G networks over US objections.

China has proven an invaluable ally to Myanmar, using its permanent seat on the UN Security Council to shield it from international censure.

China and Russia, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, were expected to play a obstructionist role in a closed door UNSC meeting on Tuesday to discuss potential sanctions against Myanmar generals.

The two nations are major weapons suppliers to the Myanmar military. Envoys from both countries met General Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar just weeks ­before the coup, raising speculation he sought assurances of support from the key backers.

Damien Kingsbury, a Myanmar expert and Deakin University international relations professor, says China may “not necessarily have wanted to see a coup” because of the instability it would create.

“But if the choice was between Myanmar moving away from China or a coup, then I think China would have been supportive of military action to ensure it retains its very close economic and strategic alliance,” he told The Australian.

Professor Kingsbury said Myanmar’s top military leadership likely sought agreements with China before acting “simply ­because actions of this type will ultimately result in sanctions against Myanmar, and the military will be wanting to ensure they retain links to their biggest trading partner and key military supplier”.

Mr Biden has called on nations to “come together in one voice” to press Myanmar’s military to immediately relinquish power, adding the US was “taking note of those who stand with the people of Burma in this difficult hour”, using the former name for Myanmar.

But he might find surprisingly few takers among allies and partners in Southeast Asia.

The Thai government, one of two formal US allies in the region, is a re-badged version of the military junta that seized power in 2014.

Its second formal ally is The Philippines, where Rodrigo Duterte has distanced his country from Washington to forge closer economic ties with Beijing, and has been condemned for his use of death squads in his war on drugs.

Both those countries, along with Cambodia, have described Monday’s events as an “internal” affair. Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have all issued statements of concern over the coup, but they too have faced their own democratic challenges in recent years and are unlikely to offer much beyond polite encouragement for Myanmar to adhere to ASEAN principles of “democracy and constitutional government”.

Former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa, whose tenure coincided with the Myanmar’s early democratic transition in 2011, says the region’s muted response reflects a worrying trend of democratic regression and that ASEAN must take the lead in addressing the country’s latest coup.

“Myanmar’s transition to democracy — years in the making — did not take place in a vacuum”, but rather with “persistent and ­relentless” ASEAN engagement to strengthen democracy and human rights protections, he said.

“Regrettably, the recent years has seen backsliding in the region’s democratic dynamic. Deafening silence in the face of assaults against democratic principles have increasingly become the norm.”