China leads global expansion of nuke arsenal

India, Pakistan and North Korea also upped their stockpiles and Russia’s grew to a smaller ­extent.

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles parade on Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. Picture: AFP

The nuclear arsenals of several countries, especially China, grew last year and other atomic powers continued to modernise theirs as geopolitical tensions rise, researchers said on Monday.

“We are approaching, or maybe have already reached, the end of a long period of the number of nuclear weapons worldwide ­declining,” said Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The total amount of nuclear warheads among the nine nuclear powers – Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the US – was down to 12,512 at the outset of 2023, from 12,710 at the start of last year, according to institute. Of those, 9576 were in “military stockpiles for potential use”, 86 more than a year earlier.

The institute distinguishes ­between countries’ stockpiles available for use and their total ­inventory, which includes older ones scheduled to be dismantled.

“The stockpile is the usable ­nuclear warheads, and those numbers are beginning to tick up,” professor Smith said, while noting that numbers are still far from the over 70,000 seen during the 1980s.

The bulk of the increase was from China, which increased its stockpile from 350 to 410 warheads. India, Pakistan and North Korea also upped their stockpiles and Russia’s grew to a smaller ­extent, from 4477 to 4489, while the remaining nuclear powers maintained the size of their arsenal.

Russia and the US together still have almost 90 per cent of all ­nuclear weapons.

“The big picture is we’ve had over 30 years of the number of ­nuclear warheads coming down, and we see that process coming to an end now,” Professor Smith said.

Institute researchers also noted that diplomatic efforts on nuclear arms control and disarmament had suffered setbacks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For instance, the US suspended its ­“bilateral strategic stability dialogue” with Russia in the wake of the invasion. In February, Moscow announced it was suspending participation in the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).

The institute noted that it “was the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces”.

At the same time, Professor Smith said, the rise in stockpiles could not be explained by the war in Ukraine as it takes a longer time to develop new warheads and that the bulk of the increase was among countries not directly affected.

China had also invested heavily in all parts of its military as its economy and influence grew, he said.

AFP