Bracing for exodus as Hong Kong hedges its bets

A senior adviser to the Hong Kong government has said it is ‘anybody’s guess’ how many residents will soon flee the city.

Bernard Chan, convener of the Hong Kong Chief Executive’s cabinet, says unrest in 2019 gave the city ‘a very bad rap’. Picture: Getty Images

A senior adviser to the Hong Kong government has said it is “anybody’s guess” how many residents will soon flee the city for Australia, Canada and Britain.

Bernard Chan, a businessman and convener of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s cabinet, said sending children to destinations including Australia for schooling, university and a path to permanent residency was a “no-brainer” for those who could afford it.

Retirement in Australia, which he last visited for a family road trip around Tasmanian just before the COVID-19 outbreak, would also be attractive. “Hong Kong doesn’t offer the best options for retirees if you don’t have a lot of money,” he told The Australian.

But people with good jobs or businesses in the city of 7.5 million should be cautious about leaving. “If you leave now, will the jobs still be around for you to come back for?” he said.

The city is in the midst of its biggest migration wave in more than 20 years, triggered by the protests of 2019 that were halted by COVID-19 in January 2020 and then quashed with a sweeping national security law imposed by Beijing five months later.

Earlier waves of Hong Kong migration — after Tiananmen in 1989 and ahead of the former colony’s handover from Britain in 1997 — occurred before China’s emergence as the growth engine of the world economy. “This time, it’s different,” said Mr Chan, who is also president of insurance company Asia Financial.

Land of opportunity

Now mainland China, which boasts the world’s second-biggest economy, is full of cashed-up citizens, many of whom have long dreamt of owning Hong Kong property. Then there are business people and professionals from around the world lured by Hong Kong’s low tax rate and the fast-growing Greater Bay Area, a string of nine Chinese cities, with a combined population of 70 million, which starts a 15-minute train ride away in Shenzhen.

Developing the megalopolis and its tech industry — which includes Chinese giants Huawei and Tencent — are key priorities for Xi Jinping’s administration.

“A strange thing is happening in Hong Kong. Every internat­ional chamber I speak to — including the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong — they are excited about the Greater Bay Area. The opportunities,” Mr Chan said. “Many told me — including Australians — that they still remain in Hong Kong, not ­because of Hong Kong, but because of the Greater Bay Area. They’re keen to stay here to find out what ­opportunities they can take advantage of. But you talk to our local youth, the situation is completely different.”

Getting out

Many Hong Kong democracy ­activists and their families have quietly relocated to Australia over the past year, including Australian citizen Joseph Cheng, a veteran convener of pro-democratic groups, and the family of Joshua Wong, an imprisoned 24-year-old student leader.

Melbourne migration agent Simon De Vere said his firm, Stirling Henry Global Migration, was experiencing the biggest uptick in inquiries from Hong Kong since the handover in 1997. “Most of our clients say, ‘We’ve been talking about this for years,’” he said.

Mr De Vere said successful ­applications had enough money to get an investor visa or were in a profession such as IT or nursing that is on the Australian government’s desired skills list.

“I think this is going to continue to gather pace,” he said.

Clara, a nurse, moved from Hong Kong to Adelaide in January. Her 10-year-old son’s education was the main driver. The city’s social unrest and tense political environment made her more determined to leave. “Lots of people told me, ‘You are so lucky to leave Hong Kong’,” she said. Her husband has stayed in Hong Kong for work.

A Cantonese speaker, Clara said the biggest hurdle for her was the English-language test. “I spent half a year on preparation. I tried six times,” she said. Clara said four of her friends, all nurses, were following her to Adelaide.

Reverse flow

Heading the other way, ­although in much smaller numbers, are Australian business people, including David Olsson, an international director at law firm King & Wood Mallesons, who relocated to Hong Kong last September.

Mr Olsson, who is also the president of the Australia China Business Council, has a particular client focus on the Greater Bay Area. “It’s 70 million people, 20km away from Hong Kong Central, who are the wealthiest individuals in the whole of China,” he said. “The GBA is rapidly taking shape as the regional economic powerhouse of China, offering expanded options for Hong Kong and new reasons for Australian companies to look at this part of the world.”

An investor briefing in Sydney next week run by the Hong Kong government to promote the ­region has sold out, a sign of wider interest in the opportunities.

Many Australian business people are frustrated about the international media’s presentation of Hong Kong. “We don’t have a Myanmar situation here. There are no helicopters on the roofs,” said one Australian working in the city’s finance industry.

Mr Chan said the aftermath of the 2019 social unrest “gave Hong Kong a very bad rap”. “Every company (operating in Hong Kong) has gone through some soul searching and they must have all examined: ‘Should we have a back-up plan?’”

As one of the 36 Hong Kong delegates at China’s National People’s Congress, Mr Chan was in Beijing last May when the ­national security law was first ­revealed.

“It was only after the meeting formally started that we knew the details of it,” Mr Chan said. He said he was “surprised” to find out the central government in Beijing was able to impose the law on Hong Kong in such a manner.

Heading for the exit

Almost 100 people have been charged under the new security law, including teenagers arrested on suspicion of inciting secession and newspaper publisher Jimmy Lai, who was accused of collusion with foreign powers.

Mr Chan acknowledged there was anxiety over “grey areas” of the law, although he said some concern was exaggerated.

“In Hong Kong, you can criticise the Communist Party. Everyday everyone complains about Carrie Lam. You’re still allowed to do that.

“You just can’t incite people to overturn the Communist Party. That line is loud and clear now.”

He has found responses to the law vary widely depending on people’s professions.

“If you talk to a banker — why would they worry about all of this, right? The bankers worry more about the American sanctions more than about the national ­security law. But if you’re a journalist, I appreciate your concern.”

Australia and Canada have all offered pathways for students and skilled Hong Kongers to leave the city, while Britain has offered a relocation option for an estimated 5.4 million people, more than 70 per cent of the city’s population. The UK government has estimated 300,000 Hong Kongers will take up the option over the next five years.

There are more than 100,000 Australian citizens and permanent residents in Hong Kong, and about 300,000 with citizenship or permanent residency in Canada.

Many are assessing their ­options.

Mr Chan said the Hong Kong government was unsure how big the current migration wave would be. “It’s anybody’s guess,” he said. “If you really hate China, and don’t trust China, and you feel your life is threatened — well, maybe you’ve got no choice. You’ve got to leave, right?

“But I don’t think 300,000 will feel this imminent threat to ­uproot everything to go.

“Will they hedge themselves? Sure. Hong Kong people are very good at that. They are very pragmatic. They probably want to make sure they have the option.”