Boris Johnson to reveal revised plan to European leaders

Boris Johnson is accused of launching an EU showdown to force a no-deal Brexit.

Boris Johnson prepares his keynote speech. Picture: AP.

Boris Johnson has been accused by European Union diplomats of launching a “kamikaze” showdown with Brussels and increasing the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

Officials and diplomats expressed anger after the prime minister admitted for the first time that his plan to replace the controversial backstop could lead to customs checks in Ireland.

They fear that Mr Johnson is deliberately attempting to push the EU into rejecting his proposals in order to blame their intransigence for a move towards a no-deal Brexit.

“If there’s not to be a hard border, there must be full regulatory alignment [with the EU’s customs territory],” said a senior diplomat. “So the choices are limited and quite clear. Anything else is kamikaze.”

Senior UK government sources insisted that Mr Johnson was serious about a deal and would table “a detailed and substantive” plan that could form the basis of a compromise.

“We have already made a substantive move on food and agriculture that we don’t think has been fully recognised,” said one. “We need to see the EU move as well.”

EU governments reacted with dismay to suggestions made last month by David Frost, the prime minister’s chief negotiator, that new customs clearing centres based five to ten miles from the border could carry out inspections. The idea, which does not exist in written form and has been denied by Mr Johnson, is said to relate to market surveillance and would only be for checks on suspicious consignments identified by customs authorities.

In interviews on Tuesday Mr Johnson accepted that there might need to be customs checks in Ireland, but insisted that any replacement to the backstop could not see Northern Ireland remain in a customs union with the EU.

He said: “If the EU is going to insist on customs checks … then we will have to accept that reality. And there will have to be a system for customs checks away from the border.

“Now, we think those checks can be absolutely minimal and non-intrusive and won’t involve new infrastructure.”

Officials and diplomats in Brussels, meanwhile, are concerned that the prime minister’s plan has been specially designed to be unacceptable to the EU.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French foreign minister, told his country’s parliament that while finding an agreement was the best solution a no-deal Brexit was the most likely outcome.

The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, said: “No British government should seek to impose customs posts against the will of the people on the island of Ireland. I would ask anyone to listen to the voices of Northern Ireland, from businesses to farmers, to people, who are saying no to customs posts, and we are saying no too.”

A European Commission spokeswoman added: “We have not received any proposals that meet all the objectives of the backstop, as we have been reiterating and demanding.”

Formal negotiating proposals from the government will be tabled on Wednesday and could be rejected by the EU before the weekend if they are seen as unacceptable or unworkable.

If the EU is willing to open talks to avoid a no-deal Brexit there will be only a 10-day window for an agreement to be found before a summit of European leaders on October 17.

Some European governments want Mr Johnson to accept that Northern Ireland could remain in the EU’s customs territory, as under the existing backstop plan, but potentially, with Irish consent, only for a limited time.

The biggest question for the EU, apart from concerns over customs enforcement, is whether Mr Johnson has a majority for his plan in the Commons. The diplomat said: “I cannot imagine the 27 [countries] wanting to enter into a deal unless they’re absolutely sure that this time it will be carried by the democratic institutions in the UK.”

Boris Johnson prepares his keynote speech.Picture: AP.

Q&A

When is the UK going to table its new offer on the Irish border?

A formal paper outlining the plan to replace the controversial backstop will be submitted to EU diplomats in Brussels today (Wednesday). It will be followed by an intensive diplomatic push to sell Boris Johnson’s plan in European capitals. Mr Johnson is expected to speak to the French, German and Irish leaders as well as Jean-Claude Juncker, the Commission president.

What is the plan?

At its most basic the proposal would have regulatory checks - in particular of food and agricultural goods - taking place at ports on the Irish Sea. However, the government is insisting that the customs border must remain in Ireland. This would potentially mean some checks on goods travelling between the north and south. The proposal will also include a mechanism to give the devolved Northern Ireland government a say on the new arrangements.

How will Brussels react?

EU leaders and diplomats have been in a provocative mood, suggesting that the prime minister was taking a “kamikaze” approach to the negotiations. But they have not ruled out a customs border in Ireland as long as regulatory checks are carried out elsewhere. In short they are keeping open the path to a deal.

What are their main concerns?

The most fundamental disagreement is over whether the EU should compromise and agree to more relaxed controls on the Irish border than they would at other entry ports to the single market. European governments are concerned that the plans would quickly lead to abuse of customs and single market rules, undermining the competitiveness of businesses and companies in the EU that would be bound by more stringent rules.

Does Boris Johnson want a deal?

He repeatedly claims that he does, but there are other senior cabinet ministers, thought to include the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, who are sceptical about the basis for an agreement and the potential concessions the UK might have to make. They believe that Mr Johnson needs to be seen to try to get a deal, but also be prepared to walk away and blame the EU for intransigence if he doesn’t get significant concessions.

When will we know if a deal is possible?

We should be able to discern from the reaction of the EU over the next three days whether the UK proposals are the basis for an agreement as they are analysed and circulated around European capitals. The smaller reaction there is from Brussels the more chance there is of a compromise. The government hopes that its paper will lead to intense negotiations behind closed doors and a deal struck in time for a European Council meeting on October 17. If the plan is dismissed out of hand then it is very unlikely these talks will take place at all and both sides will pivot towards a no-deal outcome.

The Times