AUKUS alliance: Asian neighbours fear wrath of the Chinese dragon

Australia’s closest Asian neighbours are likely to be divided over its acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and Tomahawk cruise missiles, analysts say.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Picture: Gary Ramage

Constructive counterbalance or contributor to regional tensions?

Australia’s closest Asian neighbours – including Indonesia – are likely to be divided over its acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and Tomahawk cruise missiles given acute regional sensitivities over raising Beijing’s hackles, analysts say.

Indonesia, the largest maritime power in the region, was among the first to be informed of the new AUKUS agreement, which will give Australia access to unprecedented strike capability, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Foreign Minister Marise Payne reaching out to their Indonesian counterparts early on Thursday. Scott Morrison scheduled a phone call with President Joko Widodo. Other regional conversations have followed, and Philippines Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana confirmed he was to speak to Mr Dutton on Friday.

But Jakarta has had little to say about the announcement, just six days after Australia and Indonesia agreed to strengthen defence ties through greater joint military training and defence technology sharing. A spokesman for Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi confirmed she spoke to Senator Payne at 7am (AEST) and the two would soon meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Indonesian defence analyst Evan Laksmana said public comments out of Jakarta would be muted given the government knows it “cannot offer a serious alternative to the regional flux”.

Privately, however, there would be concern AUKUS could lead to heightened regional tension, “strategic overcrowding”, and a potential reversal of Australia’s commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons, he said.

Indonesia is reportedly seeking up to $US125bn in loans to modernise its military over the next 25 years, to put meat on the bones of its ambitions to be a global maritime power, but is unlikely to be able to match Australia’s acquisitions.

“Overall, this is a deeper problem of Indonesia becoming a ‘strategic spectator’; what can we do other than watch from the sidelines as (the) regional environment continues to deteriorate and regional states are out for themselves?” said Mr Laksmana.

“The big question (is) what happens when there’s a misalignment between bilateral ties and regional order?”

Australia, the US and UK say their new agreement should reassure allies and partners of their determination to “maintain a strong deterrent stance” in the face of China’s relentless military build-up. But Singapore security analyst Collin Koh said there was a risk of it sparking an arms competition, in which China reacted with a further build-up and Southeast Asian neighbours felt compelled to acquire, if not similar technologies, asymmetric responses to it.