Azerbaijan authorities ‘believe Russian missile downed plane, killing 38’

Azerbaijani government sources told European media anti-aircraft fire hit the passenger jet, with ‘shrapnel hitting passengers and cabin crew’ before the plane crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38.

Emergency specialists work at the crash site of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane near the western Kazakh city of Aktau. Picture: AFP

Azerbaijani authorities believe a passenger jet heading for Russia that crashed in Kazakhstan was caused by a Russian missile, according to European media.

At least 38 people were killed in the incident that Ukrainian officials and aviation experts said was likely caused by Russian anti-aircraft fire.

Euronews cited Azerbaijani government sources as saying that “shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight”.

Euronews also cited its sources saying the damaged plane “was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing”.

They said the plane was instead ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea to Aktau – far off its original route.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said early indications suggested a Russian anti-aircraft system struck the plane.

The Azerbaijan Airlines plane was flying from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia and diverted course over an area where Moscow’s air defences have battled Ukrainian drones in recent weeks.

The flight, carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, crashed near the coastal city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan after turning around and flying east over the Caspian Sea. As many as 29 passengers survived.

Citing assessments of footage of the crash, the damage to the aircraft, and recent military activity, aviation-security firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to airlines that the flight “was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system”.

"Disturbing video shows the final moments of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight, revealing repeated climbs and dives before the crash."#AzerbaijanAirlines#PlaneCrashpic.twitter.com/7waDmu07k2

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“Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire,” said Matt Borie, chief intelligence officer at Osprey.

A former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency said there appeared to be “a lot of shrapnel” damage on the wreckage.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the damage was “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed with a surface-to-air missile by Russia-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian national security official, Andriy Kovalenko, said in an X post that the plane “was shot down by a Russian air-defence system”, citing visible damage to the plane’s fuselage.

“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so,” Mr Kovalenko said. “The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives.”

The Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashes near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. Picture: X

The New York Times also reported that “two Azerbaijanis briefed on a government inquiry said that Azerbaijani officials now believe that a Russian Pantsir-S defence system damaged the plane”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters “It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions.”

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan said they were co-operating on an investigation and cited different potential reasons for the crash.

Azerbaijan Airlines earlier said the Embraer 190 passenger jet may have collided with a flock of birds.

Azerbaijan’s president said that he was told the plane had been diverted due to poor weather conditions. He said an investigation into the incident was ongoing. Officials said the aircraft’s black box had been recovered.

Footage posted from near the scene on Wednesday morning showed the aircraft engulfed in flames after it made an emergency landing in a field.

Twenty five minutes before the plane was scheduled to land in Grozny, its crew alerted air-traffic controllers at Aktau airport that they needed to make an emergency landing there, the ministry said.

Half an hour later, shortly before noon local time, the plane crashed in a field about 3km from Aktau airport. Flight-tracking service Flightradar24 said heavy GPS spoofing in the area, which tampers with signals so a plane’s position can’t be tracked, could have complicated any diversion attempt.

Some aviation experts have suggested that perforations in the plane’s tail section, visible in footage of the crash site posted by Kazakhstan’s Emergencies Ministry and verified by Storyful looked consistent with a possible missile attack or the work of air defences.

Mr Borie said the damage pattern available in footage of the incident didn’t seem to match that of a bird strike, but cautioned that further information and input from regulators was needed to confirm the possibility.

Footage posted on social media and verified by Storyful showed the two-engine jetliner descending at a dangerously steep angle before levelling out somewhat on its descent towards Aktau.

The plane’s undulating flight path – and a sudden downward turn at a dangerously steep angle ahead of landing – suggests the pilots were struggling to guide it, experts said.

“The plane seems to have had multiple control issues,” said Alexandre Avrane, founder of AeroTransport Data Bank, which tracks aircraft worldwide.

Emergency specialists work at the crash site in Kazakhstan. Picture: AFP

When it set off from Baku on Wednesday morning, the Azerbaijan Airlines plane was flying over a part of Russia’s North Caucasus that has been targeted by Ukrainian drones in recent weeks. Russia’s defence ministry said it had shot down 59 Ukrainian drones overnight into Wednesday, most of them in areas bordering Ukraine.

One of them was shot down over Vladikavkaz, west of Grozny, just three hours before the plane crashed on Wednesday, said the regional governor there, Sergei Menyaylo. On December 15, a drone struck a campus of Russia’s National Guard in Grozny and at least two other drones were shot down by air defences.

Ukrainian drone attacks across large parts of Russia have recently affected commercial flights, including temporarily halting operations at Kazan airport, about 500 miles east of Moscow, before the crash.

Osprey issued an alert warning airline customers of an increased risk as a result. On Wednesday, Azerbaijan Airlines said it had halted flights to Grozny and Makhachkala, according to TASS.

Russian authorities often use SA-22 anti-aircraft systems to defend against those drones, which are equipped with surface-to-air missiles and 30mm cannon ammunition. The SA-22 has the range to strike an aircraft at cruise altitude.

Earlier this month, TASS posted footage from Russia’s defence ministry of an SA-22 system shooting down an aircraft-like Ukrainian drone over the Kursk region in southwest Russia.

Dow Jones, AFP