ASEAN states lose faith in US ability to counter China

Concern over China’s influence, and a perceived US retreat from the region, is forcing ASEAN nations to look to Japan, the EU and Australia.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. Picture: AP

Growing concern over China’s economic and strategic influence across Southeast Asia, and a perceived US retreat from the region, is forcing ASEAN nations to look to Japan, the EU and — as a distant third option — Australia as trusted counter-weights.

The latest State of Southeast Asia report — to be released on Thursday by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute — has revealed a depth of concern among policy- and opinion-makers in the 10 ASEAN member states at China’s rising power not previously acknowledged within a multilateral grouping underpinned by principles of non-­interference and impartiality.

Some 52.2 per cent of the 1308 Southeast Asians surveyed across government, academia, civil society, business and media now see Beijing as the region’s most influential political and strategic power — close to double the number of those who believe the US is the most powerful player. Of those who say China has greatest strategic influence, 85.4 per cent fear how it might use that power.

China’s unrivalled regional economic might is also increasingly seen as a threat, following a year of heightened media focus on Beijing’s alleged use of “debt-trap dip­lomacy” in dealings with smaller, vulnerable Indo-Pacific nations.

Close to 72 per cent of respondents worried about China’s influence, including through its Belt & Road Initiative, which has invested $US255bn ($369bn) in infrastructure projects across ASEAN’s six largest economies, including Indonesia and Malaysia.

Many expressed concern China could use its military and economic might to threaten their nation’s interests and sovereignty, as it is seen to have done in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where it has built military bases on artificial islands.

Almost three-quarters of respondents said Beijing could improve relations by peacefully resolving all regional territorial and maritime disputes according to international law.

Just 16.1 per cent said they trusted China to “do the right thing” to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance, compared with Japan (61.2 per cent), which is by far the most trusted nation in Southeast Asia, followed by the EU (38.7 per cent) and only then the US (30.3 per cent).

 

Yet the survey also shows 47 per cent of respondents had ­little or no confidence in the US as a strategic partner and regional ­security provider, up from 34.6 per cent last year.

“We know from talking to people in the region that we’re all concerned about China, but now we have the numbers to more or less back up our research,” said Tang Siew Mun, report co-author and head of ISEAS’ ASEAN Studies Centre, which carried out the ­survey.

“We know China is No 1 in the region but we are not cheering for the champion with much enthusiasm. How we respond to (China’s rise) — through direct pushback or reliance on the US — we are still figuring out. That’s why we included questions about leadership, and who we might turn to.”

On the most trusted “third party” strategic partner to help ASEAN hedge against the uncertainties of the US-China rivalry, Australia ranked third (8.8 per cent) behind Japan (38.2 per cent) and the EU (31.7 per cent).

Just 53.6 per cent of respondents said they would choose the US over China if ASEAN were forced to align itself with one or the other, compared with 46.4 per cent for China, reflecting a broad lack of confidence in both powers as well as divisions within ASEAN.

That split is even more intriguing when broken down by country. In seven out of 10 ASEAN nations, the majority of res­pondents nominated China, with only the strength of pro-US sentiment in Singapore, Vietnam and The Philippines — which have South China Sea disputes with Beijing — pushing it over the line.

Australian National University emeritus professor of strategic studies Hugh White said the perceived US retreat from Asia had undermined confidence America would support a regional pushback against China, and “the real answer is they don’t want to have to choose”.

“The more worried Southeast Asians are that America is not going to be there for them, the more threatening China’s power seems. That’s a very significant development,” he said. “Southeast Asians have never been as emotionally attached to the US as Australia but for a long time there has been a deep confidence, particularly amongst policy elites, that America would always be there.

“Everybody is worried about China’s growing power and everybody knows a strong US role is the best defence against it, but nobody wants to sacrifice their relationship with China in order to do that.”