All Boris Johnson needs now is a few more miracles

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson with French President Emmanuel Macron in Brussels. Picture: AP.

The Brexit deal agreed with the EU is a spectacular vindication of Boris Johnson’s approach: to go back to Brussels with the genuine prospect that Britain would leave with no deal on October 31.

The EU started off by saying it would never reopen the withdrawal agreement, but with a no-deal Brexit back in prospect, compromise — and thus a deal — has been possible. And, yes, parliament has said it would force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension of EU membership; but No 10 said it would find a way to not do so. It seems that this was enough to focus minds in Brussels.

Johnson’s deal is the opposite to that struck by Theresa May in that the more you look at it, the better it seems. Legally, we would leave the EU at the end of this month. There follows a transition period: 14 months, rather than 21 months. Thereafter, Britain would have control over its borders, its waters, its farms and more. You can search in vain in the pages of the agreement for hidden nasties.

There had been talk that France wanted ­access to British fish: there is no such concession. There are others, but not new ones. We continue to pay quite a lot of money, but the sum goes down quickly and we should save at least £70bn ($131bn) over the next decade. Money that could be put to better use redressing the effects of globalisation that has made London too powerful relative to the rest of the country.

The biggest concession, on our part, is that Northern Ireland can stay in an all-Ireland economy and follow EU regulations on agriculture and industrial goods. But it also stays part of the British ­Customs union, meaning a two-border system­ with the Britain/Northern Ireland regulatory border fairly lightly patrolled.

Crucially, it can opt out of the all-Ireland system by means of a simple majority vote in the Northern Assembly at Stormont. So the backstop has gone: the Prime Minister has executed the “backstop-ectomy” that he promised.

Democratic control stays in Britain, albeit under our devolved system. There is no Unionist veto on the Stormont vote, to the dismay of the Democratic Unionist Party. But to agree to Belfast’s control took a big concession from Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, who deserves credit in moving so quickly in the end. The deal was made possible by genuine, significant compromise from all sides.

The question this weekend is whether Westminster can now bring itself to compromise. If the EU says it will not grant an extension, this will force MPs to choose: the deal, or the supposed no-deal chaos that opposition parties say they would oppose at all costs. It is now relatively easy for the EU to call their bluff. But if it does not do so, it will be a very close vote for the government — especially given that it is 40 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons.

It has become commonplace to say that history will not treat someone or other kindly but, in Johnson’s case, history could scarcely be any less sympathetic than many of his critics already have been. He has been dismissed as a fraud and a joke; and even his success in Brussels will be dressed up as something forced upon him by rebels.

Yes, he has made his fair share of mistakes. The prorogation of parliament backfired badly, and No 10 did not imagine that Labour would refuse his call for a general election. But a more elegant solution was never available. He ­always had an easy riposte to his critics: what would they have him do? What course of action is more likely to settle this amicably?

He could hardly resign and invite Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to lead a caretaker government — passing No 10 to a man he claims is a danger to national security and ­supremely unfit for the office. If the Commons votes for a second referendum, that would likely lead to another Brexit victory and take us back to where we are now. To push through Theresa May’s deal for a fourth time would have been impossible with the MPs ranged against it.

But to go for a modified version of that deal, as he ended up doing, was the most sensible compromise. Perhaps the only sensible compromise.

Even if it works — and until MPs back the deal, it remains an agonisingly big “if” — an electoral benefit is not guaranteed. As Churchill found to his cost in 1945, the British do not tend to view elections­ as a chance to reward a government for past achievements — they will be looking ahead to see how a Johnson government might use a Commons majority.

We gained an insight into this through this week’s Queen’s Speech: it’s a pitch for the Labour Leave constituencies, with emphasis placed on health spending, school spending and controlling crime. We can expect him to take former chancellor George ­Os­zborne’s approach to tax cuts: in favour of them in theory, but never quite finding the right moment to implement them. With an election approaching, the Tories will promise more spending — and more debt to pay for it.

But what the electorate deserves to know above all else is: how is Johnson going to make use of the trade and legislative freedoms for which he campaigned in the EU referendum? Without a coherent vision for this, Brexit will have been a waste of time.

The Conservatives should not be shy. They should unashamedly seek to break the protectionist shackles which have held back the EU when trading with the rest of the world. May’s government was marked by a failure to explain what Brexit is for. Johnson rightly mocked her for it. But we could be hearing a lot more about his idea.

The coming general election will provide a greater contrast ­between the social and economic policies of the two main parties than has been seen since 1983. It will decide what sort of country post-Brexit Britain is to become: interventionist, large government, with a return to union power; or economically liberal, championing the rights of people and communiti­es to make their own decisions. If the Conservatives ­become the Brexit party with nothing much to say beyond Brexit, then they are doomed.

When Johnson declared that he would leave the EU by October 31, it was seen as an impossibly ambitio­us goal. Now, it looks likely. All he has to do now is win Saturday’s vote, win a parliamentary majority, keep the union together, stave off recession and agree a second Brexit deal when this one ­expires at the end of next year.

Johnson has ­always thought of himself as being blessed with good luck. This week’s events will vindicate his suspicion. But he’ll need plenty more luck before his high-wire act is over.

The Spectator