A fearful gamble that could define Donald Trump’s presidency
Donald Trump is facing a fearful decision that could define his presidency. He has signalled he may need to kick-start the US economy much sooner than his health experts would like, to minimise the gigantic economic cost of the coronavirus shutdown to Americans and to the world.
“America will again, and soon, be open for business,” he said.
“Very soon, a lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting. We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”
Trump says he will review as early as next week social-distancing guidelines his medical advisers say are essential to prevent an Italy-style breakout of infection and death in the US.
Social distancing has proved the key to reducing infection rates in China and South Korea and is the new mantra throughout Europe, Britain, Australia and elsewhere as countries try to slow the virus.
Trump’s argument is that the US is a special case because its economy is the largest in the world and the price of a deep recession, or even a depression, is too awful to contemplate. “Our country wasn’t built to be shut down. America will again, and soon, be open for business.”
Any decision to quickly ease guidelines on social distancing will see many millions of US workers return to work and customers back — as much as they dare — in restaurants and bars, potentially providing a huge boost to an economy that is plummeting towards recession, if not depression. It will, according to health experts, open the US up to a huge risk of runaway infections and deaths that could dwarf those of any other country.
Trump says this needs to be put in perspective. “We have a very active flu season, more active than most. It’s looking like it’s heading to 50,000 or more deaths — not cases, 50,000 deaths. Which is — that’s a lot. And you look at automobile accidents, which are far greater than any numbers we’re talking about. That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody, ‘No more driving of cars’. So we have to do things to get our country open.”
Trump says the human cost of a closed US economy would probably cause more deaths through anxiety, depression and suicide caused by unemployment and financial hardship. It’s a big call, but no one can say with certainty whether he is right.
Trump faces enormous risks either way. If he keeps the US economy more or less closed for many months, as health experts advise, the US and the world face an economic crisis probably not seen since the Great Depression.
Yet if Trump moves to protect the economy by putting at-risk workers back on the job too quickly, he risks a coronavirus outbreak in the US of catastrophic proportions. This may be his most important judgment call as President.