A ceasefire in name only as Gaza peace plan buckles

Donald Trump’s ceasefire in Gaza is fast becoming a ceasefire in name only, after Israel launched a series of “powerful” military strikes in response to yet another Hamas breach of the peace plan.

The unprovoked attack on Israeli troops by Hamas and Israel’s robust retaliation marks the biggest threat yet to the fragile ceasefire, raising doubts that either side is ready for peace.

The blame for the latest violation of the peace plan lies yet again with Hamas, which shows no signs of voluntarily surrendering either power or its weapons as required under the next stage of Trump’s plan.

Consider the following: Since the ceasefire came into effect earlier this month Hamas has attacked Israeli troops twice, killing two of them; has used executions and beatings to reassert its power and authority in Gaza; and has failed to return all of the bodies of deceased hostages. It has now been caught on video staging the discovery of a hostage’s body by burying it and then digging it up in front of the Red Cross.

What’s more, leaders of the terror group have told Arab mediators in Cairo that Hamas expects to play a part in the future governance of Gaza.

These are not the actions of a group which – according to the peace plan – should be preparing to surrender power and weapons, and fade into history.

The real question now is how long will Trump seek to restrain Israel from resuming its offensive against Hamas.

For now, the US is placing enormous pressure on Israel to ensure that its responses to Hamas’ violations are proportional and do not destroy the larger peace plan.

Trump has invested enormously in the plan and does not want to see it collapse within weeks. US Vice-President JD Vance has played down the latest violence, saying there will “be little skirmishes here and there” but that the “ceasefire is holding”.

Yet Hamas’ behaviour is sorely testing the patience of both the US and Israel.

We are likely to see a repeat of this pattern in the weeks ahead, where Hamas does something to provoke Israel and Israel responds with a series of airstrikes. Both sides will continue to claim that they intend to honour the peace plan, while their actions increasingly suggest otherwise.

The future of the Trump plan depends almost entirely on Hamas taking the next step to voluntarily surrender its power and weapons. It will be impossible to put an interim international stabilisation force into Gaza if it has to confront an active Hamas.

The most likely scenario now is that the current strategic position of both sides will be frozen. Gaza will remain cut in half for the foreseeable future, with Israeli forces staying in the 53 per cent of Gaza they already control behind the so-called Yellow Line, while Hamas continues to be a presence in the rest of the enclave.

In such a scenario, the plan hatched by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is for reconstruction to occur only in the Israeli-controlled half of Gaza, while the Hamas-controlled side is left in ruins. Israel would almost certainly continue to launch targeted strikes against terrorists in the Hamas-controlled half of Gaza.

This is set to be the default outcome unless Hamas changes its behaviour and adheres to the plan – something which looks less likely by the day.

Even if the Trump plan collapses in the weeks or months ahead, it is already a triumph for the single fact that it enabled the release against the odds of the 20 remaining living hostages.

Trump is right to give his plan more time and try to pressure Hamas to abide by it. But the chances of it ever succeeding are fading fast.