British PM Theresa May given a free hand on Brexit

When Theresa May stands up today to make a major speech on Brexit, her words will be as closely scrutinised.

After the British people voted to leave the European Union last year, the shape of ‘Brexit’ is still unclear. Picture: AFP

When Theresa May stands up today to make a major speech on Brexit, her words will be as closely scrutinised around the world as anything said by a British prime minister for many years. For the past six months, she has said little publicly on the greatest challenge facing Britain since World War II beyond her endlessly repeated mantra, “Brexit means Brexit”.

Now, with just weeks before the end-of-March deadline she has set herself for formally invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which gives Britain two years to reach an exit deal, her words will be pored over for clues as to what relationship she envisages between Britain and the European Union after 44 years of integration.

In fact, the answers to the biggest questions about this future relationship have been clear for some time. In her only substantive public contribution to the debate so far — a speech to the Conservative Party conference in October — Mrs May set out two clear red lines that left little doubt as to where Britain was headed, even if she might not have fully appreciated the implications of her statements at the time. By insisting that the sovereign state would reclaim full control of its borders, ending the automatic right of EU citizens to live and work in Britain and by rejecting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Britain, she implicitly ruled out British participation in the EU’s single market and customs union, committing herself to what has become known as a hard Brexit.

The only real uncertainty is to what extent this hard Brexit may be softened by a comprehensive free-trade agreement and transitional arrangements to allow businesses to adjust. If the British government has had little so far to say on this, it is because the answers depend in part on factors beyond its control: firstly, what the EU is prepared to offer, which remains unknowable, since the other 27 member states have refused to enter any negotiation before Article 50 is invoked; and secondly, what the British public and, above all, the Conservative Party is willing to tolerate, since one of Mrs May’s main objectives is to emerge from Brexit with her political position enhanced.

But on this second question, the picture has become clearer in recent weeks. Britons voted for Brexit by only a narrow margin and the referendum has laid bare deep divisions that, if anything, have only hardened since last June. But the prospect of a serious challenge to Brexit has almost completely receded as many former supporters of EU membership have come to accept the inevitability of a hard Brexit as the only outcome consistent with the referendum result. As a result, Mrs May can go into the negotiations with a remarkably free hand.

True, some former Remain campaigners cling to the hope that once the economic consequences of a hard Brexit become clear, public opinion will turn against quitting the EU. Even if it did, the reality is that Britain’s erstwhile pro-Europeans are demoralised and disorganised, their support spread across up to half a dozen political parties without access to any common national political operation. The main opposition Labour Party isn’t only divided — reflecting the fact that two-thirds of its parliamentary seats are in constituencies that strongly backed Brexit as a means of limiting immigration — but trailing in the polls under an ineffective hard-left leader with a long record of opposition to EU membership. Besides, the political opportunities to stop the Brexit juggernaut once Mrs May has formally triggered the start of the two-year window to negotiate an exit deal are likely to be limited. It is possible that the British Supreme Court will next week uphold an earlier High Court ruling requiring Mrs May to seek parliamentary approval to invoke Article 50, but this is unlikely to present any serious obstacle. The unelected House of Lords may try to amend the bill with procedural demands for greater parliamentary scrutiny of the process including a vote on the final Brexit deal, but won’t try to dictate the shape of Brexit and won’t provoke a constitutional crisis if its amendments are rejected by the House of Commons, opponents of Brexit say.

Ironically, Mrs May’s position looks strong despite doubts among some colleagues and officials about the quality of her leadership — and may yet become stronger once the Brexit negotiations begins. Much will depend on how public opinion evolves once Britain is faced with large financial demands to settle outstanding EU obligations as the price of a Brexit deal. The temptation for Mrs May, robustly backed by the pro-Brexit press, will be to portray the state as a victim of an unreasonable and vindictive EU. The battle over Brexit will partly be one of narratives. Today, Mrs May will fire her opening salvo.