Why the Melbourne Cup’s a race in three
The Australian’s racing experts have analysed the Melbourne Cup field and narrowed it down to three main chances.
UPDATE: Marmelo is the new favourite for tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup, backed into $8.50 on the TAB’s fixed odds market. Read what Channel Seven’s Melbourne Cup Carnival co-host Richard Freedman has to say about Marmelo and every other runner below.
Picking the winner of the Melbourne Cup is a national pastime, but it’s a tough ask this year because the imported horses are harder to read.
I think the race will be run at average pace and with fewer foreign riders than previous years, I don’t see too many “unorthodox” tactics being used here.
Saturday’s Lexus Stakes winner Cismontane is the likely leader for the training team of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott but the winner is likely to come from elsewhere.
Defending champion Almandin will again run well this year despite having to carry more weight but will be pushed by Humidor who, despite his failure in what was a strange Caulfield Cup, remains a chance at 3200m.
Marmelo, with jockey Hugh Bowman aboard, is one of the big European chances and would give the Brits their first Melbourne Cup winner.
German trainer Andreas Wohler has a genuine chance with Red Cardinal to add to his 2014 Cup success, while I see English runner Wall Of Fire as one of the real dangers in the race after a great preparation since arriving in Australia.
Rekindling, another European horse, is hard to rate but you should include him if you’re taking several runners into trifecta or first four bets. I also like Caulfield Cup runner-up Single Gaze and Darren Weir’s Big Duke, who I think is among the best hopes out of the Australian horses in the race.
My thoughts on each runner are below and my top selections are:
1 ALMANDIN
3 HUMIDOR
5 MARMELO
6 RED CARDINAL
13 BIG DUKE
19 SINGLE GAZE
20 WALL OF FIRE
22 REKINDLING
Note: Odds quoted below were correct at time of publication, but check current TAB Fixed Odds here.
OUR EXPERTS’ TIPS
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1. HARTNELL
7yo bay gelding, Authorized (IRE)/Debonnaire (GB)
Career: 36 starts, 11-11-2
Prizemoney: $4,461,499
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 12
Jockey: Damien Lane
Trainer: James Cummings
Odds: $21
Past 5 starts: -1229
Comment: Chased gamely from the second half of the field len 2nd of 8 (7) $2.10F 59.0 Bonneval 1800m C’field G1 Underwood Stks Good (3) Oct 1. Severely hampered near the 200m before finishing 6-1/4 len 9th of 11 (7) $4.20 59.0 Gailo Chop 2000m C’field G1 Caulfield Stks Good(3) Oct 14. Godolphin star lining up for his third Melbourne Cup. Jockey was lucky to stay in the saddle in the Caulfield Stks. His 3200 metre form is excellent including third in this race last year so keep very safe.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Although he ran very well last year and he has form at 3200m, his preparation for this year’s Cup looks to me to have been interrupted, or at least truncated. With his top-weight and prep issues, I’m looking elsewhere.
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2. ALMANDIN
8yo bay gelding, Monsun (GER)/Anatola (GER)
Career: 15 starts, 6-4-1
Prizemoney: $4,262,558
Weight: 56.5kg
Barrier: 14
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Odds: $7
Past 5 starts: 1-214
Comment: Finished strongly to score 2-3/4 len win of 13 (6) $5.00 61.0 Crocodile Rock, Aloft 2500m F’ton LR Jra Trophy Good(4) Sept 16. Kept coming when 3-1/2 len 4th of 10 (9) $2.20F 60.0 Amelie’s Star 2500m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good(3) Oct 7. Defending champion and he’s come back in terrific form. Followed a very easy victory in the JRA Trophy with a sound performance in the Bart Cummings. Stable will have him trained to the minute to defend his title. Can win again.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: His form this season is similar to last year’s when he won the Melbourne Cup, but he’s been required to carry much higher weights this year in his prep races. He drops to 56.5kg in the Cup from his recent runs and I think he will run well again this year.
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3. HUMIDOR
5yo bay gelding, Teofilo (IRE)/Zakila (NZ)
Career: 21 starts, 6-7-2
Prizemoney: $2,459,915
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 13
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Darren Weir
Odds: $9
Past 5 starts: 81352
Comment: Stuck on well when 2-3/4 len 5th of 17 (7) $6.50 56.0 Boom Time 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Perfectly ridden and almost caused a boilover with lg nk 2nd of 8 (7) $31.00 59.0 Winx 2040m M Valley G1 W S Cox Plate Good(3) Oct 28. Battled away well in the Caulfield Cup after taking up a more forward position than usual then got very close to super mare Winx in the Cox Plate. Has had plenty of hard racing recently and tackles this distance range for the first time but has class on his side.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: He’s done plenty of miles in his preparation. He likes Flemington and his last start behind Winx in the Cox Plate was herculean, given that he gave Winx 2kg in weight. I like his chances of running well and I think he looks likely to perform at 3200m.
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4. TIBERIAN
6yo bay horse, Tiberius Caesar (FR)/Toamasina (FR)
Career: 17 starts, 6-4-0
Prizemoney: $517,000
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 23
Jockey: Olivier Peslier
Trainer: Alain Couetil
Odds: $31
Past 5 starts: -711-
Comment: Always handy and fought off all challengers to score sht hd win of 7 (1) $3.75 61.5 Doha Dream, Tamelly 2500m Fr - Deauville G3 Prix De Reux Firm Aug 6. Finished best for sht nk win of 7 (5) $5.50 60.0 Doha Dream, Travelling Man 2500m Fr - Deauville G2 De Deauville Firm Aug 27. Well-performed French stayer who has generally struggled at the very top level in Europe but he can take up a forward position and will give a great sight. Worth thought for the exotics.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Mostly consistent stayer when the track is firm. His European form is good enough to say he could perform well. He’s the type of horse I throw into trifectas and first fours on suspicion. His wide draw only concerns me if his French rider sits him three-wide in running.
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5. MARMELO
5yo bay horse, Duke of Marmalade (IRE)/Capriolla (GB)
Career: 11 starts, 3-4-1
Prizemoney: $365,165
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 16
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Odds: $9
Past 5 starts: -21-6
Comment: Raced handy before scoring 1-1/4 len win of 8 (5) $3.80 59.0 Desert Skyline, Holdthasigreen 3000m Fr - Deauville G2 Prix Kergorlay Good Aug 20. Drifted back and motored to the line when balanced up halfway down the straight 2-3/4 len 6th of 17 (10) $16.00 55.5 Boom Time 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Dominant winner of the Prix Kergorlay prior to coming to Australia. Produced an eye-catcher in the Caulfield Cup when ran the best closing splits in the race. Much better suited over this trip and looms large.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: A very strong stayer who comes from Europe in good form. His run in the Caulfield Cup, where he produced an eye-catching run for sixth, was excellent and he has Hugh Bowman aboard. I like his chances. He is one of the Euros who could win the Cup this year.
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6. RED CARDINAL
6yo bay gelding, Montjeu (IRE)/Notable (GB)
Career: 10 starts, 5-3-1
Prizemoney: $460,572
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 24
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Andreas Wohler
Odds: $16
Past 5 starts: 11-5-
Comment: Just got there for nk win of 12 (9) $3.80F 55.0 St Michel, Now We Can 3219m USA - Belmont Park G3 Cup Invitat. Firm June 9. Never threatened when 6-1/4 len 5th of 8 (6) $4.70 60.0 Marmelo 3000m Fr - Deauville G2 Prix Kergorlay Good Aug 20. G1-placed German stayer who is unbeaten at his two runs over this trip. No match in the Prix Kergorlay last start but prior form in Germany and America suggests he warrants serious consideration.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Another European with good firm-track form. His trainer knows how to get this job done ... he trained Protectionist to win the Cup in 2014 ... and his jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a two-time winner of the Cup and riding in great form. Definite for the trifecta or first four.
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7. JOHANNES VERMEER
5yo bay horse, Galileo (IRE)/Inca Princess
Career: 14 starts, 4-3-3
Prizemoney: $940,080
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 3
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: $11
Past 5 starts: 12-23
Comment: Rattled home to just miss at Australian debut 1/2 nk 2nd of 11 (6) $31.00 59.0 Gailo Chop 2000m C’field G1 Caulfield Stks Good(3) Oct 14. Given time to balance up, dragged back through the field by a tired horse on the turn but made good late ground 1-1/4 len, hd 3rd of 17 (2) $5.00F 54.5 Boom Time, Single Gaze 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Flew home in an on-pace dominated Caulfield Stakes then ran very well without luck in the Caulfield Cup. Yet to win past 2000m and while he has a G1 win to his credit in France, it was only over 1400 metres. Last bit is the challenge but he’ll have plenty of admirers.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: I like his preparation. Champion Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien is showing his ability to adapt a preparation to suit local conditions. I have a slight distance query here. He probably runs 3200m but it’s not guaranteed. I’m going to take a risk and leave him out.
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8. BONDI BEACH
6yo bay gelding, Galileo (IRE)/One Moment in Time (IRE)
Career: 13 starts, 4-3-2
Prizemoney: $562,019
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 1
Jockey: Michael Walker
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Odds: $51
Past 5 starts: -9-0-
Comment: Caught wide throughout and the saddle slipped when 5-3/4 len 9th of 10 (8) $7.50 61.0 Aloft 2000m F’ton Open Hcp Good(4) Aug 5. Never threatened when 11-1/4 len 11th of 13 (13) $31.00 59.5 Almandin 2500m F’ton LR Jra Trophy Good(4) Sept 16. Failed in this race last year and his two runs this time in make it hard to get enthusiastic about his chances here. Others have stronger claims.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Bondi Beach was lacklustre in last year’s Melbourne Cup, where he finished 13th, and hasn’t shown much since then in Australia. Despite the name, he has Irish heritage. I think he’ll make up the numbers. It’s a “no” from me.
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9. MAX DYNAMITE
8yo bay gelding, Great Journey (JPN)/Mascara (GER)
Career: 23 starts, 4-3-3
Prizemoney: $1,293,834
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 2
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Odds: $16
Past 5 starts: 0-91-
Comment: Had every chance when 17-1/2 len 9th of 20 (1) $4.50F 68.0 Tigris River 3229m Ire - Galway 4yo+ Hrdl Dead Aug 3. Always handy and powered away for 3 len win of 6 (2) $1.45F 73.0 Sandymount Duke, Silver Concorde 3420m Ire - Killarney 4yo+ Hcp Dead Aug 24. Finished runner-up in this race two years ago, producing the quickest closing 200 metre split of the day. Has been raced sparingly since but will have been aimed specifically at this race and he’s the weight horse. His work here last Tuesday was very sharp. Can win.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Brave second in the 2015 Cup, but since then he has been injured and he’s only had two runs in the past 16 months. His two prep runs have been in a hurdle race and a race for amateur riders in Ireland. He’s a grand old horse but I’ll pass him by this year.
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10. VENTURA STORM
5yo bay horse, Zoffany (IRE)/Sarawati (IRE)
Career: 17 starts, 6-2-1
Prizemoney: $774,125
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 6
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes, Ben Hayes, Tom Dabernig
Odds: $31
Past 5 starts: -7620
Comment: Tried hard but no match for champion mare 6-1/2 len 2nd of 7 (5) $17.00 56.5 Winx 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stakes Good(4) Oct 7. Landed midfield but couldn’t make any impression 6-1/2 len 13th of 17 (4) $12.00 54.0 Boom Time 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Moderate effort in the Caulfield Cup but split Winx and Humidor in the Turnbull Stakes prior. If you can forgive his Caulfield Cup run he must be given a rough place chance here.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: While his prep races have looked solid on paper (he came second to the great Winx in the Turnbull), he has been beaten by solid margins in all of them. He would need to lift to a personal best in the Melbourne Cup and I just don’t see it from his recent form.
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11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
Scratched
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12. WICKLOW BRAVE
9yo bay gelding, Beat Hollow (GB)/Moraine (GB)
Career: 38 starts, 10-4-5
Prizemoney: $1,260,788
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 8
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Odds: $61
Past 5 starts: 24440
Comment: Safely held when 14-1/4 len 4th of 10 (7) $12.00 61.5 Order Of St George 2816m Ire - Curragh G1 Irish St Leger Soft Sept 10. Slow away then was checked near the 400m before finishing 5-1/2 len 12th of 17 (16) $71.00 54.0 Boom Time 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Always in a similar spot in the Caulfield Cup but he was one of many who found some trouble in the run. Ran third last in this race last year and only win in eight starts since was over the hurdles so looking elsewhere.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: He failed in last year’s Melbourne Cup with Frankie Dettori only managing to get him to 22nd place after running wide. He was in better form back then and has been well-beaten by several of these in recent months, so it’s hard to see him running better this year.
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13. BIG DUKE
6yo bay gelding, Raven’s Pass (USA)/Hazarayna (GB)
Career: 19 starts, 7-4-3
Prizemoney: $1,165,274
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 5
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Darren Weir
Odds: $19
Past 5 starts: 50214
Comment: Knuckled down well from midfield to score 3/4 len win of 11 (2) $2.20F 58.5 Auvray, Cismontane 2600m R’wick St Leger Stakes Good(3) Oct 14. Didn’t get much room on the turn and in the run home 2-1/4 len 4th of 7 (1) $1.95F 57.0 Who Shot Thebarman 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Good(3) Oct 28. Forgive his run in the Moonee Valley Cup when never able to get fully clear. Prior form sound and he ran third in the Sydney Cup at his only try over this trip. Stable commands respect and he could surprise at big odds.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: He’s had a solid prep for this race. Moonee Valley Cup form might be better than it looked, and his run was unlucky. He looks likely to run out a solid 3200m. He is one of the strong local chances. I’m going to put him in my trifecta and first four.
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14. US ARMY RANGER
5yo bay horse, Galileo (IRE)/Moonstone (GB)
Career: 12 starts, 2-3-2
Prizemoney: $856,333
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 22
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Odds: $61
Past 5 starts: 0386-
Comment: Didn’t finish it off when 11-1/4 len 8th of 14 (14) $9.00 60.5 Stradivarius 3219m G B - Goodwood G1 Goodwood Cup Good Aug 1. Had every chance when 7-3/4 len last of 6 (5) $4.50 61.0 Eziyra 2414m Ire - Leopardstown G3 Enterprise Stks Dead Sept 9. Won his first two starts then finished runner-up in the Epsom Derby but he hasn’t won in nine starts since. Looks tested.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Former Derby placegetter in England who showed plenty of promise early in his career. He has been battling this preparation and he would need to recapture his old Derby form to figure here. It’s hard to see that happening so I’m ruling him out.
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15. BOOM TIME
6yo bay horse, Flying Spur/Bit of a Ride
Career: 32 starts, 7-2-7
Prizemoney: $2,459,025
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 9
Jockey: Corey Parish
Trainer: David Hayes, Ben Hayes, Tom Dabernig
Odds: $26
Past 5 starts: 39341
Comment: Worked hard in the run and only run down late 2-1/2 len 4th of 10 (6) $8.50 56.5 Lord Fandango 2400m C’field G2 Herbert Power Good(3) Oct 14. Positioned a touch closer than midfield off a ferocious tempo, ducked back to the inside early in the straight and knuckled down well to score 1-1/4 len win of 17 (3) $51.00 52.0 Single Gaze, Johannes Vermeer 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Worked hard on the speed in the Herbert Power Stakes and did well to stick on then produced a strong staying performance for an upset in the Caulfield Cup. Hard to ignore him on the back of those efforts. Keep in mind.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Fairytale win in a “messy” Caulfield Cup two weeks ago. He’s trained by the successful team of David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig, but he was a longshot in the Caulfield Cup and wasn’t even rated the best of the stable’s chances there. I’ll pass on him.
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16. GALLANTE
7yo bay gelding, Montjeu (IRE)/Crazy Volume (IRE)
Career: 19 starts, 4-1-3
Prizemoney: $2,007,794
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 18
Jockey: Michael Dee
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Odds: $126
Past 5 starts: 70-07
Comment: Showed up early before compounding 18-1/2 len last of 15 (11) $101.00 58.0 Harlem 2000m C’field G3 Foundation Cup Good(3) Sept 23. Had every chance when 3-3/4 len 7th of 12 (11) $26.00 58.0 Vengeur Masque 2400m Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Soft(5) Oct 25. Won the Sydney Cup before failing dismally in this race last year and his lead-up form this season is modest. Not likely.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Out of form this season, and ran poorly in last year’s Melbourne Cup where he finished a disappointing 20th. Was a striking winner of the 2016 Sydney Cup but hasn’t hit those heights since. A soft track would help him, but it has to be a “no”.
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17. LIBRAN
7yo bay or brown gelding, Lawman (FR)/True Crystal (IRE)
Career: 29 starts, 9-3-1
Prizemoney: $1,038,373
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 7
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Chris Waller
Odds: $41
Past 5 starts: 61652
Comment: Kept grinding home from the tail 4-1/2 len 5th of 11 (7) $6.00 58.5 Big Duke 2600m R’wick St Leger Stakes Good(3) Oct 14. Lobbed along out the back and finished strongly for close-up 1/2 len 2nd of 7 (7) $10.00 57.0 Who Shot Thebarman 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Good(3) Oct 28. Dour stayer who picked up ground from the back in the ATC St Leger Stakes then chased home Who Shot Thebarman in the Moonee Valley Cup. Looks a level below the best in this. Would need things to fall his way.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: He is talented by unpredictable and inconsistent. He finds it hard to string good performances together and although he ran well in the Moonee Valley Cup to finish second behind Who Shot Thebarman, I can’t trust him to improve from that.
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18. NAKEETA
7yo bay gelding, Sixties Icon (GB)/Easy Red (IRE)
Career: 31 starts, 5-8-3
Prizemoney: $573,409
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 19
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Iain Jardine
Odds: $31
Past 5 starts: 24-1-
Comment: Made some late ground when 4-3/4 len 4th of 14 (14) $9.00 60.5 Jaameh 2816m G B - Newmarket 4yo+ Hcp (105) Good June 10. Sustained a strong finished from the back hd win of 19 (15) $13.00 57.0 Flymetothestars, Natural Scenery 2787m G B - York Ebor Hcp (C2) Good Aug 26. Produced a career-best figure to win the Ebor and has good form in large fields which should stand him in good stead here. Strong stayer and lightweight hope in this.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Strong win in the Ebor Handicap last start, but the form hasn’t held up from that race. The Scottish-trained runner is placed at 3200m and will run the journey, but I’m questioning if he has the class to get the job done. I’ll risk leaving him out.
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19. SINGLE GAZE
5yo chestnut mare, Not a Single Doubt/Redaluca’s Gaze
Career: 28 starts, 5-6-3
Prizemoney: $2,031,100
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 11
Jockey: Kathy O’Hara
Trainer: Nick Olive
Odds: $34
Past 5 starts: 05442
Comment: Box-seated and toughed it out to the line 2-3/4 len 4th of 11 (1) $21.00 57.0 Gailo Chop 2000m C’field G1 Caulfield Stks Good(3) Oct 14. Sat off clear leader and stuck on tenaciously 1-1/4 len 2nd of 17 (12) $31.00 53.0 Boom Time 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Chased the tearaway leader in the Caulfield Cup and did a remarkable job to hang on for second. Tough mare but 3200m is a new pain barrier and likely to find a few of these seasoned stayers too strong.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: A mighty run in the Caulfield Cup where she finished second behind Boom Time. She is untested beyond 2400m but she has been in career-best form. With the light weight she can run very well. I’m putting her in my trifecta and first four.
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20. WALL OF FIRE
5yo bay horse, Canford Cliffs (IRE)/Bright Sapphire (IRE)
Career: 14 starts, 4-3-0
Prizemoney: $356,570
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 15
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Odds: $13
Past 5 starts: 8-2-2
Comment: Ran on when clear for 3/4 len 2nd of 8 (8) $15.00 59.5 Defoe 2671m G B - Newbury G3 Geoffrey Freer Soft Aug 19. Charged home from the back len 2nd of 10 (9) $9.00 58.0 Lord Fandango 2400m C’field G2 Herbert Power Good(3) Oct 14. Comes out of the Herbert Power which has proven a terrific form reference. Has failed at both previous runs over this trip but wears blinkers now and they appear to have made a difference. Warrants serious consideration.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: A developing stayer from England who has obviously done well since arriving in Australia. I loved his run in the Herbert Power over 2400m at Caulfield last start where he finished second. I think he is on the rise and one of the real dangers in the race.
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21. THOMAS HOBSON
8yo bay gelding, Halling (USA)/La Spezia (IRE)
Career: 24 starts, 9-4-2
Prizemoney: $376,218
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 21
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Odds: $15
Past 5 starts: 2-72-
Comment: Stalked the speed, took over early in the straight but tired 5 len 7th of 9 (6) $5.00 58.5 Montaly 3270m G B - York G2 Lonsdale Cup Good Aug 25. Ran home gamely 1-1/2 len 2nd of 9 (5) $5.00 58.5 Desert Skyline 3600m G B - Doncaster G2 Doncaster Cup Dead Sept 15. Successfully mixes both jumps and flat racing and he will certainly run the right trip out. Willie Mullins went very close with Max Dynamite, who has a similar form profile to Thomas Hobson, in this race two years ago. Outside hope.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: A dour stayer who may have just enough class to run well, but I prefer faster staying types than him in the race. Has star Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira aboard but would need killer pace in this race to run well and that rarely happens. I’m looking to others.
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22. REKINDLING
4yo bay horse, High Chaparral (IRE)/Sitara (GB)
Career: 9 starts, 3-2-0
Prizemoney: $256,231
Weight: 51.5kg
Barrier: 4
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Odds: $16
Past 5 starts: 1-24-
Comment: Chased gamely without threatening winner 4-3/4 len 2nd of 6 (2) $6.50 58.5 Order Of St George 2816m Ire - Curragh G3 St Leger Trial Dead Aug 19. Kept chasing solidly 2 len 4th of 11 (10) $11.00 57.5 Capri 2922m G B - Doncaster G1 St Leger Soft Sept 16. Beat all bar Order Of St George in the St Leger Trial two starts back then wasn’t far away in the St Leger. That’s strong European form and gets in with no weight here. Can’t be overlooked.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: He is your classic European “dark hose”. It’s really difficult to rate him. He is definitely a developing stayer who wouldn’t have to improve much to be in the finish. If you are “going wide” in your trifecta and first four, put him in for sure.
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23. AMELIE’S STAR
6yo bay mare, Testa Rossa/Zazita
Career: 18 starts, 6-2-2
Prizemoney: $573,385
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 10
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Darren Weir
Odds: $26
Past 5 starts: 39410
Comment: Finished strongly from midfield for impressive 2 len win of 10 (2) $4.60 54.5 Granddukeoftuscany, Kellstorm 2500m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good(3) Oct 7. Raced handy early before running out of steam in the straight 5-1/2 len 11th of 17 (13) $9.50 51.0 Boom Time 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good(3) Oct 21. Dominant winner of the Bart Cummings then disappointed in the Caulfield Cup but she probably didn’t appreciate being ridden so close. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: Another horse that is hard to rate and was a little disappointing last start in the Caulfield Cup. I’ve always liked her but right now I think she might be a solid Group 2/Group 3 class stayer and could find the Group 1 Melbourne Cup just a bit too strong.
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24. CISMONTANE
5yo bay gelding, High Chaparral (IRE)/Viviane (NZ)
Career: 19 starts, 7-2-2
Prizemoney: $434,4255
Weight: 50kg
Barrier: 17
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Odds: $41
Past 5 starts: 94101
Comment: Led when 3/4 len, 2-3/4 len 3rd of 11 (11) $31.00 55.5 Big Duke, Auvray 2600m R’wick St Leger Stakes Good(3) Oct 14. Again set pace 1/2 len, 1/2 hd 3rd of 7 (4) $8.50 55.0 Who Shot Thebarman, Libran 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Good(3) Oct 28. Clear leader and stayed on determinedly for sht nk win of 10 (6) $16.00 54.0 Vengeur Masque, Pentathlon 2500m F’ton G3 Lexus Good(3) Nov 4. Tough free-running Sydney stayer who secured a start with brave all-the-way win in the Lexus on Saturday. Can expect more pressure here but very fit and looks an each way chance.
RICHARD FREEDMAN SAYS: He is probably the leader on Tuesday. His form has kept improving this spring. He has been placed very well and has earned his spot. He is super tough but I think he falls just short of the class required. He will run bravely, but just fall short I feel.
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