Flawed world champions leave door open to next World Cup glory

The world champions are definitely not the best team on the planet. If the World Cup commenced this week, France, the hosts, would flatten South Africa.

South African players celebrate after defeating England in the 2019 RWC final in Yokohama.

The world champions are definitely not the best team on the planet. If the World Cup commenced this week, France, the hosts, would flatten South Africa.

The Springboks are enslaved to a system that shocked England in the 2019 final but struggled to put Wales away in the semi-final, and they were well beaten in the pool stage by an All Black side that might very well have won the final had England not done South Africa’s work for them in the semi-final.

The recent 2-1 series win against Wales should be the wake-up call that was delayed in 2021 as the British & Irish Lions played poor man’s Springbok rugby. South Africa has the most potent pack in world rugby. It has strength in depth. The six-two forwards/backs bench allows it to introduce immense intensity up front. It has some brilliant backs. But the system is broken.

“Forwards win matches, backs decide by how much,” is rugby’s old saying. But at the risk of my dear friend Gareth Chilcott popping around and boxing my ears, the reality, as shown by South Africa, is somewhat different.

Forwards win the ball, the key decision-makers put teams in position to turn possession into pressure into points.

Against Wales there was a deficiency at No.8, No.9 and No.10; the most important decision-makers on the field. Duane Vermeulen defied the years to win man of the match in the 2019 World Cup final. At present, South Africa has a hole where a great No.8 once bestrode the field.

Leicester Tigers’ Jasper Wiese is one hell of a wrecking ball, but there’s insufficient subtlety to his game. At scrum-half there remains a complete reliance on Faf de Klerk. With him resting on the bench for much of the recent series, the Springboks lacked someone to give the pack direction at the base. When he did play, he wasn’t the force of old.

And then there’s Elton Jantjes. The fly-half had a career-killing first Test against Wales. He’s gifted but lacks the temperament to be a Test No.10. He has had more than his share of opportunities. Handre Pollard is first choice; the man who was third choice for Montpellier for much of the French season.

He can carry – he’s a powerful fly-half – but his game has faded into a world where his first thought is kick, usually high and across field, and his second is the same. Third choice – kick anywhere. The once brilliant fly-half and the 2022 version are similar in name only.

South Africa may still dominate territory and possession, as it did against Wales, but without the direction at Nos 8, 9 and 10 to turn these attributes into wins. In last season’s Rugby Championship, Australia was able to beat the Springboks twice. The Wallabies need a full deck of players – especially the game-managing Quade Cooper – but England’s series win shouldn’t cause us to dismiss Australian hopes, not only for the forthcoming Rugby Championship but also the World Cup.

Head coach David Rennie, relies on an ageing and fragile Cooper, 34. That is a worry. His cover, Noah Lolesio, cannot yet ignite the full force of a backline that can trouble any side. It tore the fabled South Africa defence to shreds in 2021. It is within the bounds of possibility it can do so again.

Its pack isn’t going to win it a World Cup, but it may be good enough not to lose it one, especially if France-based Will Skelton and Rory Arnold join their mates for the 2023 jamboree. The Wallabies are not afraid to fight it fast against South Africa, but there is a psychological problem with New Zealand.

New Zealand hammered Australia last season. The Wallabies have taken a few too many beatings at Kiwi hands. However, in the wake of their home series loss it will be fascinating to see whether New Zealand exact revenge on the southern hemisphere for the run of losses against Ireland and France (four defeats in the past five Tests). New Zealand is used to having the mental edge that comes with always winning. Now regular losers, the psychological challenge is one to be faced in the mirror.

There are questions about the captaincy and choice of open-side all rolled into one. There’s doubt over the suitability of Ian Foster as head coach, but it’s the forwards and backs coaches who were dismissed last week. There is no doubting the genius of men such as Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith and Ardie Savea.

The trio is Foster’s likeliest No 10, No 9 and No 8. They possess the core quality that South Africa lack at present, but whether the belief still smoulders to turn New Zealand into the winning machine of old, whether Foster as short-term backs coach will worsen their woes, these are concerns that come with huge question marks.

Argentina could sneak victories against any of these flawed teams. All of them are vulnerable, especially in South America.

Michael Cheika is building a team which plays with the pace of his Waratah and Wallaby teams of old. In the Gloucester fullback Santiago Carreras he has a converted fly-half to ignite a backline.

Carreras is also the world’s kick-off king.

Argentina’s ability to turn a restart into immediate pressure against Scotland was breathtaking. It managed to score directly from one kick-off and with eye-opening frequency after winning possession from many others. To take a three-point penalty against the Pumas is to place yourself under immediate territorial pressure from the restart.

The scrum is a mess. That’s the huge downside. It’s one that has to be addressed before Cheika can create a team to worry England in the pool stages of the World Cup.

Watch the restarts and the running game throughout August. The Pumas play some pretty rugby and are staggering at the “third set piece”.

England will be wary if Argentina lay foundations at the first set piece, the scrum.

If the southern hemisphere is to retain its global dominance and make it nine World Cups from 10 tournaments, there’s a lot of rebuilding required.

The Times