Can the WTC be a viable attraction if one of the leading countries fails to qualify?

ALTHOUGH the World Test Championship is a tiny dot in the schedule, it is sure to be the subject of increasing thought.

ALTHOUGH the World Test Championship is a tiny dot in the schedule, still three years away, it is sure to be the subject of increasing thought over the next 12 months. Countries will become more and more conscious of their standings in the ICC rankings while vexed administrators continue to ponder its flaws.

The ICC faces two pressing issues. First, it has to conjure a structure for the event, due to take place in England, that does not ridicule the form of the game it is designed to promote. Second, can the WTC be a viable attraction if one of the leading countries fails to qualify among the top four?

This will be a serious possibility if the rebuilding work of Andy Flower, the team director, takes longer than he or the England and Wales Cricket Board would like. There is time, because the qualification period that began last May runs until the end of December 2016.

Broadcasters blocked the proposed first WTC last year, having been promised a certain number of games under the terms of contracts that the ICC was unwilling to renegotiate. Reports are now circulating of renewed nerves before 2017 because of the uncertainty about the participants.

An inaugural WTC without England as hosts would be a very tough "sell" as there is no evidence to suggest that neutral Tests (as opposed to one-day matches) will be popular.

If a credible format can be devised, a tournament involving India, England, Australia and South Africa as the top four has a chance of making an impression. England, however, is in decline. It will slip to fourth unless it wins in Sydney. Pakistan could then join it on 107 points with a 3-0 victory over Sri Lanka in the UAE.

Pakistan's progress, therefore, will be one of the most fascinating, if low-key, developments this year. Poor returns in 2013 are misleading because four of its five losses in eight Tests came against South Africa, the best team in the world.

Pakistan will always have interesting and unorthodox bowlers while Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, 75 years old combined, are showing no sign of ageing, if hundreds in the first Test against Sri Lanka are a guide. This year, it has series against Australia (in UAE), New Zealand and Zimbabwe.

England will not play another Test away from home until it meets West Indies in April 2015, after the ICC World Cup in Australia and New Zealand. This (northern) summer it hosts Sri Lanka and India, the latter being the only five-Test series anywhere in the world this year.

Most of India's batsmen showed some composure against the pace and bounce of South Africa in the recent contest and no one should anticipate a repeat of the 2011 whitewash.

It promises to be a testing 12 months for India. This time next year, it will be where England is now, completing an Australia series in Sydney. By then, there will be a better idea whether Australia really is a viable candidate eventually to topple South Africa, or whether it has been flattered by a feeble England side.

Answers will begin to emerge next month when Australia visits South Africa. Three back-to-back Tests starting in Centurion on February 12 are sure to challenge the fitness of Ryan Harris and Shane Watson as well as the recovery of James Pattinson after serious back trouble.

The aggression they are showing against England may rattle South Africa, whose hard shell has often hidden a softer centre. South Africa is yet to beat Australia in six home series post-apartheid. After Jacques Kallis's retirement they will be desperately keen for AB de Villiers to recover.

THE TIMES