What Alex de Minaur must do to overcome humiliation to Jannik Sinner and be a grand slam threat
Alex de Minaur has been here before – and emerged bigger and better because of it. But what does he need to do to turn a Jannik Sinner humiliation into becoming a genuine grand slam threat?
It’s “back to the drawing board” says Aussie ace Alex de Minaur after his devastating quarter-final exit at the hands of world No.1 Jannik Sinner.
This 6-3 6-2 6-1 thumping will long live in the heart and mind of the Demon, whose hopes of springing a Melbourne Park miracle were brutally snuffed out by the best in the business.
There is no shame in losing to Sinner: particularly on a hard court and particularly when playing the type of tennis he did on Wednesday night. No player on planet earth could have taken the Italian to task when in that kind of form. But it still stung, and de Minaur was still left searching for answers.
He has been here before. In 2023 he was soundly beaten by Novak Djokovic in the fourth round and that fuelled him to lift his game. Twelve months later he defeated the superstar Serb at the United Cup to crack into the top-10 for the first time.
So what exactly is on the Demon’s drawing board this time around?
SERVE IT UP
This will be the de Minaur camp’s main cause for concern in the coming weeks and months. Try as he might, the first serve is still not the weapon it needs to be to match it with the best.
The Aussie has clearly put in the work to up the speed on his first serve having long since identified it as a weakness in his game. But a few km/h more means nothing if it’s cannoning into the net 49 per cent of the time like it did on Wednesday night.
Sinner’s average serve speed was actually slower than de Minaur’s but he got much more out of it, as evidenced by the paltry 10/59 points the Aussie won against serve – a damning statistic considering he entered the match as the No.1 ranked returner on tour.
An almost bigger issue is his second serve, which Sinner routinely punished and others will, too.
In today’s game it is not good enough to simply get the ball in play. It still needs to be a way of dictating the early exchanges and de Minaur does not yet have that in his arsenal.
Is it worth putting in a call to Goran Ivanisevic? He is the master coach who fixed Djokovic’s serve and made it one of his many major weapons.
We saw on Tuesday night how effective his second serves were in keeping Carlos Alcaraz on the back foot.
Ivanisevic just ended his brief coaching stint with Elena Rybakina. He will no doubt be a man in demand and if the Demon is serious about upping his service game, it could be a call worth making.
MENTAL EDGE
It took just one break of serve for Sinner’s mental assault on de Minaur to set in. The Aussie was fighting for his life from behind the baseline but also between the ears, where it quickly became apparent he started doubting his chances of winning.
Surrendering an early break in each of the three sets was the death knell for de Minaur because it had him playing on the backfoot from the outset – and there might be no better frontrunner in tennis right now than Sinner.
After the match he also took to social media to return serve at a troll who had potted his performance.
This is less of an issue because in the moments after such a heartbreaking defeat, when the emotions are high, everyone is prone to such a response – though it did hint at the mental toll it had taken on the normally measured man.
But the Demon does look to have improved in this area compared to years gone by.
After his defeats to Djokovic in 2023 and Andrey Rublev last year, de Minaur appeared almost inconsolable in his post-match press conferences.
This time, though disappointed, there was no head-in-hands heartbreak. His responses were measured and confident.
The biggest battle for de Minaur now, particularly when it comes to the Sinner matchup, is belief.
The world knows the head to head record is 10-0 to the Italian. He will hear that stat ad nauseam throughout his career. What the Demon needs to do is not lose the battle before he even steps onto the court by believing he has no chance – and that comes back to building up his game to better match Sinner’s firepower.
FIND THE VENOM
De Minaur is the best defensive player in world tennis and it has gotten him to No.7 in the ATP rankings and four grand slam quarter-finals.
But in the modern game it is not enough to simply be tough to hit the ball past – you need to have that ability in your back pocket as well.
Entering Wednesday night’s match, the difference in groundstroke speeds between Sinner and de Minaur was stark.
The Italian averaged 130km/h from the forehand wing and 119km/h from the backhand, compared to de Minaur’s 119km/h and 111km/h respectively.
Particularly on a cold court where generating ball speed was even harder than usual, conceding such a pace advantage meant de Minaur was rarely able to dictate how the rallies played out.
“What Jannik has in these conditions is he’s got very little unforced errors and his ball speed is very high,” de Minaur ruled.
“When you’re trying to go toe-to-toe with him, naturally you’re lifting your ball speed. So all of a sudden you’re pressing more than you’re used to, which obviously creates a couple more unforced errors.”
Against lesser opponents more prone to making errors you can get by but when pit against the best in the world – the Sinners and Djokovics – you cannot wait for them to make a mistake, you have to force them.
De Minaur and his camp know this. He has significantly improved in this area over the past few years but Wednesday’s humbling showed there are more gains to be made.
In the cold light of Thursday morning, de Minaur would have woken up disappointed in how his Australian Open campaign collapsed.
But he has been in this position before and emerged bigger and better because of it.
The most brutal reality now is that he will have to wait until 12 months to make amends. But that also means 12 months to improve so that when he and Sinner meet under lights at Rod Laver Arena again, he has a chance at springing that Melbourne Park miracle.
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