Rankings before glory in Nick Kyrgios’s Olympics calculation

Nick Kyrgios has good reason to question whether the time is right for an Olympics bid.

Nick Kyrgios has good reason to head to the Bahamas to recuperate if, as appears likely, he opts to forego representing Australia in the Tokyo Olympics this month.

It does not relate to his understandable concern surrounding an Olympics dealing with a pandemic, but rather a pressing need to protect his top 100 status.

An abdominal injury brought to an end the Australian’s Wimbledon campaign on Saturday night when he was forced to withdraw from his match against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The 26-year-old was brilliant in the opening set of the third round clash against the talented Canadian, but felt pain in his stomach muscle soon after and forfeited with the score at 6-2 1-6.

Kyrgios stated before Wimbledon that he was heading to the Bahamas straight after the tournament before travelling to America, but was still named in the Australian team for Tokyo.

After his exit from Wimbledon, he said the experience of playing in an Olympics riddled by restrictions held little appeal.

“If I’m to play the Olympics, I want to do it the right way,” he said.

“I want to do it with full crowds, with my guests there. I want to do it when I’m able to watch other athletes do their thing. That’s the Olympics for me. The Olympics, the way it is going to go, (are) not the Olympics.”

Wimbledon was the first tournament Kyrgios has played outside of Australia since the pandemic began.

He has been able to stay inside the top 100 through this period due to the ranking protection guidelines both the ATP and WTA Tours implemented to help players either unable to or concerned about travelling.

But that protection has been wound back in stages and comes to an end early next month, with the timing putting pressure on Kyrgios, who sits at 58 on a live ranking estimate.

The right-hander’s last title came in Washington D.C in 2019 when he beat the current world No.2 Daniil Medvedev in the decider after defeating Roland Garros finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semi-finals.

The Washington tournament this year runs for a week from July 31.

The latter stages of the Olympics event overlaps with the start of the American tournament. Several of America’s top-ranked men have opted for Washington instead of the Olympics.

Kyrgios, as the defending champion, has much to lose if he fails to perform in the American capital after gaining 500 ranking points there for his success two years ago.

Should he fail to play in the tournament, be it due to the current injury or because he opts to compete in the Olympics, he will forfeit half of those points based on current ranking rules.

Had the protection been removed completely, the Australian would have effectively started the Washington tournament ranked outside the top 100 on a live ranking estimate. As it stands, he will sit at about 80.

This leaves the Canberran, who described himself as a “part-time tennis player” this week, in a precarious position, hence the need to make a prudent decision.

A ranking inside the top 100 allows Kyrgios direct entry into grand slam events.

But a ranking around 80 would mean the Australian was forced into qualifying for Masters tier tournaments and other higher-level tour events. It is not an ideal situation for a player who thrives on crowd energy.

The Canada Open is again in doubt due to Covid-19, which tightens the window for Kyrgios to perform to ensure he retains the privileges which come with a top-100 ranking.

Early exits in Cincinnati or the US Open, where he could well face seeded players in the opening rounds, would predicate a slide from the main stadium courts into qualifying.