Ordinary form, misguided expectations, Sinner in his path – it’ll be a deadset miracle if Demon wins the Australian Open

Expectations of Alex de Minaur winning the Australian Open? I have none.

Alex de Minaur v Alex Michelsen.

Alex de Minaur is tenacious of spirit. Large of heart. Wide of eye. Squeaky of foot. But let’s be honest. His dance with the Australian Open seems certain to end in heartbreak. He’s manifestly among the unlikeliest blokes to be hugging the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup when the lights go out and they’re playing the last song. Expectations? I have none.

De Minaur’s four-set win over Francisco Cerundolo wasn’t in the same class as about 25 other matches I’ve seen. It wasn’t in the same ballpark, nor even the same Melbourne Park, as Ben Shelton’s thunderstruck, thrill-a-minute, too-talented-to-be-true victory over Lorenzo Musetti, or Gael Monfils’ instinctive and athletic upset of Taylor Fritz, or Carlos ­Alcaraz leaping through the draw like Jumpin’ Jack Flash.

This can change, of course, and de Minaur at his best can give most blokes a run for their fat pay cheques, as Danielle Collins calls the lavish prizemoney, totalling $96.5m, but de Minaur in the second week of a slam is like the ­Wallabies against the All Blacks.

Up against it.

Bye, Danielle. Miss you. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more ­embarrassing Australian crowd. What enjoyment is there in getting sloshed and abusing an international athlete? Happy Slam, eh? In large degrees, yes. There’s also an element of boofheads that makes it an angry slam, a nasty slam, an idiotic slam. I just don’t get the wrathful behaviour. Bye, Danielle. Love you, and so does Novak Djokovic, and have a great time in the Bahamas.

“Big fan of Danielle Collins after that,” Djokovic says of her cameo. “I was before but now, big fan. I love it. I loved her response, everything she said on the court, off the court. Loved it.”

De Minaur will have the masses on his side and he’s going to need them. He’s embarking on mission impossible. He may need all 15,000 patrons inside Rod Laver Arena to stand down his end of the court because young American Alex Michelsen, as ­confident and capable as a David Bowie song, will take some beating on Monday. The 20-year-old is dipping his toe into the majors, and he’s never been this far before, and de Minaur flogged him 6-1 6-0 6-2 at last year’s French Open, and so he should towel him up again, but I cannot see that happening.

Alex de Minaur trains on Sunday ahead of his fourth-round match against Alex Michelsen. Picture: Mark Stewart

Michelsen has improved and, regardless of the hype for de Minaur, regardless of the fawning on the television broadcast, he’s not playing especially well to date. “A scintillating win,” was one description of de Minaur’s four-set, four-hour, third-round triumph. Please. It was as scintillating as getting a tooth pulled. The end result was great but there was a lot of throbbing discomfort in the process.

If he beats Michelsen, which cannot be taken for granted, Jannik Sinner is likely in his path. The head-to-head is 9-0 to Sinner. It isn’t that de Minaur hasn’t beaten Sinner. It’s been five years since he even took a set.

They get along famously. Choir boys always do. They see a bit of themselves in each other. The quiet natures, the interest in matches and not much else. The blinking and almost squirming in the spotlight.

Tennis has been blessed for larger-than-life leading men, dating all the way back to John Newcombe in the 1970s, a production line of charismatic and outspoken figures carrying the men’s tour on their shoulders, making the turnstiles swing like Wendell Sailor in State of Origin, transcending the sport – but Sinner is a different sort of world No.1.

Roger Federer used to finish a match and do a press conference in English, then another in Swiss-German, then another in French, then another in Swahili, and then he’d do a round of TV interviews, and we’d be thinking OK, Roger, we’re good for quotes. Point being, he took seriously his role as statesman, as does Djokovic, but Sinner is cut from a different cloth. The poster boy gives the impression he’d like someone else’s portrait on it.

He’s introverted, quiet, painfully shy. Doesn’t say boo. For comparison, you can ask Djokovic a question, go grab a cup of tea, meet friends in the CBD for lunch, make it a long lunch, take an afternoon nap, knock off a few chapters of a Charlotte Bronte novel … and he’s still providing his answer. In giving a lot of himself, Djokovic has contributed a lot to his sport. I’m not criticising Sinner. We are what we are. He’s respectable and admirable. It’s just a different vibe.

Alex Michelsen of the US serves in his third-round win over Russia’s Karen Khachanov. Picture: Hannah Peters/Getty Images

Sinner beat de Minaur in three deadset straight sets in the fourth round in 2022. “It’s part of my journey, right?” he says of trying to beat the defending champion. “I think when I played Jannik in that fourth round, we were both very, very different players. He was still coming up. Still wasn’t as solid as he is right now. A different version of myself. A lot younger. Still had the competitive and the mental aspect, but still lacked many areas to really take it to these top guys.”

Sinner has evolved. Become a two-time major champion. De Minaur is still shy of a solitary semi-final and yet he’s gradually on the up.

“Terrific improvement,” Djokovic says. “I think his serve became a big weapon. Maybe it wasn’t before. He was always fast and he’s kept that speed on the court. He’s approaching the net much more than he used to do. We all know how good he is at defending, but his offence has improved a lot. His court positioning has improved. It’s not a surprise that he ended up top 10 last season. His best season yet, so I think we’re going to still see great things from Alex in this tournament. I’ve watched him play a few matches and the level is great. He’s got the crowd behind him. He’s playing really well.”

Well, he’s playing well-ish. “Ultimately, when you hear any compliments coming from someone like Novak, who’s virtually perfect in every aspect of his game, it’s obviously very nice to hear,” De Minaur says. “I always appreciate it because you put in the work with your team behind closed scenes, and it’s always good that other players in the locker room are noticing.”

Australia's Alex de Minaur celebrates victory against Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo in the third round. Picture: William West/AFP

De Minaur is in the spotlight at the Open because we thrust him there. Such is the lot of the only Australian contender. He’s lumbered with the sort of expectation we placed on Ash Barty, which is ridiculous. Barty had every chance of winning. De Minaur probably has slim and none. I hope I’m proved wrong. I hope he wins the final and throws this column in my face in Interview Room 1 but I just cannot see it happening.

“We move on,” he says. “Hopefully bigger and better things coming on for the next round,” he says.

On present form, this week is mission impossible. He’s the roughie’s roughie and yet he continuously gets the Barty treatment. You can do it! You’ll win the tournament! This does him a disservice. Rattles him and paints the wrong picture. Being tenacious of spirit, large of heart, wide of eye and squeaky of foot doesn’t hide the truth of the matter. He’s your quintessential little Australian battler in the second week of every major. A rank underdog. Free him of the incessant burden of expectancy. Assume nothing. It’ll be a deadset miracle if he wins.