Australian Open 2025: The art of breaking good: Alex de Minaur overtakes Novak Djokovic for profitable returns

How has Alex de Minaur reached the top 10 when his serving stats are so average? He’s overtaken Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz as the best in the business at the crucial art of returning.

Alex de Minaur is the world’s best returner, according to the stats. It’s a critical number that separates the very good from the best. Picture: Michael Klein

Alex de Minaur has overtaken Novak Djokovic as the tour’s premier returner. If you watch Demon scampering through matches at the Australian Open with a battler’s serve and wonder how in the name of Rodney George Laver he’s reached the headiness and heights of a single-figure world ranking, well, this is how he’s done it. By breaking good.

ATP statistics reveal Demon trumps Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic as the finest exponent of a crucial art. He broke serve last year at an average of 31.6 per cent, basically every third game, a giddy rate, compared to Alcaraz’s 30.8 per cent and Djokovic’s 29 per cent. The Serb is regarded as the finest returner in history, shading Andre Agassi, who shades Lleyton Hewitt, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, but his gradual decline in dominance has coincided with a dip in returning prowess. The dear old thing’s eyesight is probably fading.

Demon’s 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 win over American Tristan Boyer in round two on Thursday was far from his most scintillating outing. He’s fond of talking about the best version of himself.

Alex de Minaur gets fired up during Thursday’s match. Picture: Mark Stewart

Suffice to say, this wasn’t it. A 6/10 performance. He played with an air of simmering frustration. He wasn’t hitting the ball as cleanly or aggressively as he would’ve liked. His shoulders slumped. Feathering the ball instead of clobbering it, at one stage he yelled at himself: “Hit it!” He didn’t intoxicate the crowd on Rod Laver Arena as much gave it a gentle tickle. An attempt at a Mexican wave didn’t get off the ground. Nobody was revved up enough.

“For me now, I’ve been in this position and I know what I need to do,” de Minaur said. “I know that the early rounds, it’s all about getting through, no matter how. Whether it’s pretty, whether it’s not. Whether you’re playing amazing tennis or can’t find the court. Ultimately the only thing that counts is getting over the line and winning that last point. If you can do your best to conserve energy and not play long matches, then that’s going to be very nice to you and your body as the tournament goes along. That’s been my main focus. Get in, do what I need to do, get out if I can.”

Demon dropped his opening service game to trail 0-2 – Boyer the destroyer! – but broke the American’s next four service games. Six breaks in all. Profitable returns in a swift match lasting just one hour and 59 minutes. He spent most of the first two sets berating himself, mumbling, grumbling, bemoaning his inability to hit fifth gear. More pep was in his step in the third set, a promising sprint to the finish, putting a gentle breeze in his sails ahead of Saturday’s potentially troublesome third-round fixture against Argentina’s world No.31 Francisco Cerundolo.

The art of breaking good. It comes in two phases. You have to reach break point and then you have to convert. Otherwise, what’s the point? Demon won a tour-topping 45.1 per cent of break points last year to lead Daniil Medvedev (44 per cent), Jack Draper (43.8 per cent), Mariano Navone (43.1 per cent) and Alcaraz (42.7 per cent) for opportunism. He takes the sidelines out of the equation, hitting most of his returns smack-bang up the middle of the court. His serve is less helpful. Demon won 80.5 per cent of games off his own delivery last year – ranked a lowly 60th on tour.

De Minaur won 80.5 per cent of games off his own delivery last year – ranked a lowly 60th on tour. Picture: Michael Klein

Let’s get nerdy with more stats. He landed only 51 per cent of his first serves against Boyer, which is a fail for a professional, but won 88 per cent of those points against an erratic opponent. Demon did clock 217km/h, a rate he never used to reach.

“My serving performance felt like the first two sets was pretty good,” he said. “Very high percentage of first serves and first-serve points won. I varied from going for the big ones down the T with some variety, with the sliders, and just felt like I was hitting my spots quite well. I think in the third set I lost a little bit of rhythm, a little bit of energy and intensity. It affected my serving numbers a little bit. Ultimately it’s about getting more free points, right? It’s hitting your spot or setting up the next shot. Too often in the past I didn’t have enough power where I could play that next shot on my terms.”

Go on. “Way too often I was going for 180km/h body serves to try and get something short, but I wasn’t really hitting 210s down the T or aces here and there to give me free points,” he said. “Ultimately that was the biggest improvement, just adding 10 to 15Ks on the serve and trying to not jeopardise the accuracy. Still hitting those spots. If I can do that, I’m going to hit aces, have a high percentage of points won on first serve. That’s definitely going to make my life easier.”

Demon said of Cerundolo: “He’s a very dangerous player. Very tricky. He’s got a lot firepower from the baseline with that forehand. He’s had some big scalps on tour. He’s not afraid to play some big matches. It’s going to be a battle. I’m looking forward to it. It’s going to be a really tough one. I’ve got to be up for it from the very first point, bring that intensity, play some aggressive style of tennis and bring out a better version of myself, which I think I’m doing every day.”

Demon barely celebrated after nailing a forehand winner on match point against Boyer the non-destroyer. He didn’t play well enough for cartwheels. All part of the journey, though. As he said, you don’t need to play seven great matches to win a slam. You just need to register seven wins. You don’t need to beat all 127 other players in the draw. You only need to beat seven of them, one at a time, and Demon two-from-two. A forgettable, not-the-best-version-of-myself performance still served its purpose. He’s through to the next round.