Alex de Minaur a rose between two thorns in ATP Finals debut
Alex de Minaur is the first Australia to reach the ATP Finals in two decades. Stats reveal a return of serve better than Novak Djokovic, but also a serve that puts him back among the journeymen. It’s why he’s never beaten Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. Perhaps he never will.
Alex de Minaur and Katie Boulter are sitting on a park bench in Madrid. Woo-hoo. Boyfriend and girlfriend. They’re talking about a form of courtship removed from tennis. A brand of love unrelated love to the opening forehands, backhands, parries and thrusts of a set. Demon and his English Rose are having a giggle about the early days of their romance … when they always politely declined to confirm everyone’s suspicions they were together.
English Rose: “It’s a nice place to sit.”
Demon: “Here’s a question for you. Would you have rathered coming to the park for our first date or the coffee shop I took you to?”
English Rose: “I think I would rather here.”
Demon: “Oh, really? So I got it all wrong?”
English Rose: “You got it all wrong.”
Demon: “I think what was very important, in the early stages, is we kind of talked about, you know, tennis being our No.1 priority. But we could still make all of this work.”
English Rose: “Yeah. That was huge. Finding the balance.”
Demon: “I actually thought it was going to be quite tough.”
English Rose: “The very start of the relationship was hard.”
Demon: “Now, sadly we’re spending more time together!”
English Rose: “I think I’ve been a great addition! Remember that time we were having breakfast on separate tables?”
Demon: “We would rock down to breakfast at different times, like, ten minutes later to avoid speculation.”
English Rose: “So people wouldn’t find out.”
Demon: “Works every time!”
All very sweet. Then de Minaur talked of his other courtship. The tennis courtship ahead of the world No.8’s maiden appearance at the blue-riband, fancy-pants, la-di-da, $22 million ATP Finals next week in Turin. The first appearance by an Australian in the end-of-season showpiece since Lleyton Hewitt was sliced and diced by Roger Federer in the final in 2004. De Minaur reclined on his bench and spoke about the problem he forever faces in tennis. He’s a hardworking, majorly motivated, fleet-footed, try-your-guts-out counter-puncher who has too much zippiness for the vast majority of players. But the hottest two players in the World, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, hit with such ferocious power that wolves howl and babies cry and de Minaur gets blown away.
English Rose: “I take full credit for you reaching the top 10.”
Demon: “Well, yeah. Only reason I made it. You know what’s tough? It feels like everyone has gotten so much stronger. Hits the ball so much bigger. You’ve got to adapt or you basically get left behind. Even the actual pace of ball since I started …”
English Rose: “Equipment’s getting better and better, too.”
Demon: “It’s tougher than ever.”
English Rose: “I think you’re doing a pretty great job.”
Demon: “Well, you’re doing a great job, too.”
English Rose: “That’s nice of you.”
Demon: “I think we’re doing all right.”
De Minaur is doing more than all right. He’s had a brilliant year. His Wimbledon form was so red-hot I reckon he would have beaten Djokovic in the quarter-finals. Injury wiped him out. His world ranking says everything about his stature. And the tour stats reveal his infernal, eternal challenge. He return games are good enough to win majors. His service games are back on the Futures Tour.
Let’s get nice and nerdy. De Minaur is ranked number one in the world for returning prowess. To be precise, he wins 33.6 per cent of points on the other’s blokes first serve. A whopping 56.4 per cent on second serve. He breaks serve 32.6 per cent of the time. Converts 45.1 per cent of break points. Djokovic is the greatest returner in history, plonking the ball back like a brick wall, but this year de Minaur has done it better.
Then comes his Achilles heel. His serve. He’s ranked 60th in the world for the effectiveness of his delivery. An enormous disadvantage. De Minaur has to scrap and fight in his service games while World No.1 Sinner and World No.3 Carlos Alcaraz, with two majors each this year, breeze through most of theirs. De Minaur lands only 53.9 per cent of his Achilles first serves compared to 61.5 per cent for Sinner. He wins 73.3 per cent of first-service points (Sinner is 79 per cent). He wins 54.5 per cent of second-service points (Sinner is 57.4 per cent). He hits an average of only four aces per match (eight for Sinner). The greatest disparity and biggest killer is this. De Minaur wins 81 per cent of his service games compared to 90-plus per cent for the best of the best. Sinner wins 92 per cent. Which is why de Minaur can resemble a middleweight sharing a ring with the heavyweights.
Which makes his ascension to the ATP Finals all the more meritorious. Forever punching above his weight, an Australian rose between two thorns in Sinner and Alcaraz, he’s scored a good draw in Turin. His round-robin matches are against Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz. He could sneak through to the semi-finals. The other group has Alcaraz, Alex Zverev, Andre Rublev and Casper Ruud. De Minaur’s first match is against Sinner on Monday at 6.30am (AEDT). Intriguing. He’s 0-7 against Sinner; 0-2 against Alcaraz. How on earth can he beat them?
De Minaur hovered outside the top ten for years. Bravo for coming off the bench. He took the rankings leap at the start of the year and stayed there. “I felt the difference from going from 11 to 10,” he said. ”One spot, it seems insignificant, but I definitely felt a big change. I think a lot of the players on tour know how difficult it is to get to that stage so ultimately, they give you a lot of their respect, which you’ve earned through hard work, dedication and winning a lot of matches. It has brought a different aspect to my game. Now stepping out on court I feel like there’s a little bit of a target on my back but at the same time, I’ve got the confidence of knowing I’ve earned my position.”
De Minaur received the eighth and final place in Turin after the withdrawal of Djokovic. I reckon the 37-year-old’s next Australian Open will be his last. Nobody has told me this on the record. Nobody has squealed on the condition of anonymity. But I reckon it’s wise to go with your gut on these things. A pound for a penny the Djoker isn’t long for this tennis world.
You went with your gut when Roger Federer lost to Hubert Hurkazc at Wimbledon in 2021. He had one more year in him. At best. He pulled the pin at the 2022 Laver Cup. You went with your gut when Rafael Nadal lost to Djokovic at this year’s Paris Olympics. Well, that wasn’t really going with ones gut. Nadal wasn’t in much better nick than Monty Python’s Black Knight. They nearly had to drag him out by the ankles. He’ll hang up his Babolat after this month’s Davis Cup final. You went with your gut when Djokovic stunned Alcaraz for the Olympic gold medal. Unlike Federer and Nadal, Djokovic wasn’t heading for the door in defeat. He had won the last title he wanted. The way he spoke, I thought he might quit there and then. When Ash Barty won Wimbledon, she told her inner circle, “Can I retire now?” There was nothing left to achieve. Ditto for Djokovic, I suspect. He achieved his heart’s final desire in Paris. The heart is no longer completely in it.
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