It was the shock flag prediction that ultimately helped to seal Peter Schwab’s fate.

The Hawthorn coach stepped up to the stage inside Hoyts cinema at Chadstone Shopping Centre in front of players, sponsors, staffers and a smattering of media representatives.

It was February 2004.

Schwab was about to enter his fifth season in charge. He had made the finals in his first two – including a narrow preliminary final loss – before missing out the next two.

To the surprise of everyone in the theatre gathered to see a Matrix-style television ad campaign for the club’s 2004 season, Schwab declared that Hawthorn would win the flag.

Speaking 18 years on from that moment, Schwab conceded to the Herald Sun’s Sacked podcast: “That was an error of judgment by me, and for a few different reasons.”

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“One, because I hadn’t really discussed it with the playing list. So that probably took them by surprise. I tried to make a statement that we would win the premiership, then I wanted to qualify it by saying, ‘Well, that’s what we should be aiming for if we are in a competition’.

“I should have worded it better.

“I tried to be a bit smart and it hung around my neck and it was always going to come back and whack me, which it did when we started the season poorly.”

That bold declaration became an albatross around Schwab’s neck.

They won the first match, then lost the next six, and from there the Hawks’ season was in free fall.

There was only ever going to be one outcome.

BECOMING COACH

Few have come to an AFL coaching role with a CV as diverse as Schwab did in late 1999.

It read like this:

Three-time Hawthorn premiership player who had cruelly been robbed of a fourth due to a flash of frustration;

Assistant coach at Richmond and Hawthorn;

A short stint as journalist, bringing a unique perspective to the game;

AFL umpires’ director.

“That pathway wouldn’t fly now,” he said.

Part of the switch into the umpiring role came about after he and his wife, Jenny, lost their seven-year-old daughter, Emily, to a brain tumour in 1997.

Schwab needed to get out of the club “footy space” and spent more time with his wife and young son, William.

Twenty-five years on, William is 30 and Michael – the son he and his wife had after losing Emily – is 23.

Schwab explained: “It was a horrible time. Somehow you get through it. It was a great loss to us.”

But even though he made some big decisions in the umpiring role, including trying to make the game safer and owning up to mistakes, the coaching gig kept gnawing away.

He blew the Hawks’ selection panel away with a 100-page dossier in late 1999 and took on the senior coaching role at the club so dear to his heart.

2001’S WILD RIDE

Having won a final in his first year as coach in 2000, Schwab felt Hawthorn could go further the following year.

But he couldn’t have imagined just how far, or how many hurdles they would need to navigate in 2001.

“When we won the first eight games, we thought, ‘This is a fantastic start’,” he said. “But we knew it wouldn’t last forever.”

A reality check from Essendon made him realise “we are not anywhere near the best team in it”.

They lost the last three matches of the home-and-away season to be sixth on the ladder.

Yet something happened in the 2001 finals that changed it all.

“I always thought we could win (the elimination final) against Sydney … we won well,” he said.

Then the world changed forever.

One of Schwab’s players, Nick Holland, was appearing on Talking Footy when interrupted by a news flash that one – and then two – planes had crashed into New York’s World Trade Centre.

It was September 11, 2001, and half a world away the Hawks were caught up in the drama.

“We had a situation with Daniel Chick’s brother-in-law who was unfortunately killed in the Twin Towers,” Schwab said.

“It was one of those momentous moments … and it was close to home with Daniel’s situation.

“Those sorts of things are profound. In some ways sport becomes what it really is – a game we love playing.”

Chick played on; so did the Hawks in taking on Port Adelaide in a semi-final at Football Park.

Getting there was the problem, as Schwab recounted: “There was a lot going on (including) a strike from Ansett. The way it all panned out (we went on a) cargo plane.”

“It was quite a good bonding experience for us. The unfortunate thing for a lot of our team was that our partners, wives and kids couldn’t come.

“We had a good start to the game and then Johnny Barker pulled out some heroics.”

Against all the odds, and with Barker kicking two last-term goals, the Hawks caused a boilover.

The relief was palpable.

Almost an hour after the final siren, Schwab found himself alone in the Footy Park dugout by himself, soaking up the moment in an empty stadium.

“I just wandered out and sat in the dugout,” Schwab said. “(Chief executive) Michael (Brown) came down and he might have brought a few beers and we just sat there and just enjoyed it.”

THE PRELIM FINAL THAT GOT AWAY

Hawthorn was up against its arch rival Essendon in the 2001 preliminary final.

Schwab, for one, believed an upset was in the wind.

“We drew Essendon (in the preliminary final) and we played really well,” he said. “We didn’t get the rub of the green in the first quarter.”

Hawks supporters were fuming with some of the decisions that went against them early in the game which resulted in Essendon goals.

The former boss of the umpires cursed the club’s misfortune, but not publicly.

“Who knows what I said in the coaches’ box at the time,” he said.

“I would have sworn but what do you do? We got back into the game and we were a chance (to win).”

A key moment came late in the final term when a long kick from young Hawk Trent Croad shaved the goalpost.

It would have put Hawthorn in front. Instead, the Bombers swept the kick-in away and scored.

The final margin was nine points.

“‘Croady’ had that shot that would have put us in front and if that goes through it goes back to the centre and who knows who wins it from there?” Schwab said on the biggest sliding door moment of his coaching career.

“But they got the kick in and might have gone all the way down the other end and they got the sealer.

“It would have been lovely to make a grand final but you know, in the end, it wasn’t our day.”

Within a month, Croad had been traded to Fremantle in order for Hawthorn to secure the No. 1 national draft pick.

With that pick the Hawks chose Luke Hodge, and 35 picks later, a determined kid called Sam Mitchell, but sadly Schwab would only get to coach the two future greats for two and a half seasons.

PREDICTION WHICH STARTED SCHWAB DEMISE

What started with a premiership prediction in 2004 turned into a season from hell.

Everything that could go wrong, did.

They won the first game, then lost six in a row, then beat Fremantle before a string of defeats.

“Once the season started, things started to spiral down,” Schwab said. “We had some personnel issues. Johnny Barker had been injured. Johnny Hay had been struggling. Nathan Thompson had some mental health issues.

“You can make excuses but there were reasons why we were so poor. But failure accepts no alibis, so it kept coming and we weren’t getting any better. If anything we were getting worse.”

Then there was the infamous “Line in the Sand” game against Essendon which further damaged his chances.

Schwab had fought the previous pre-season to lock in a two-year deal when the club had only wanted to give him one. So he thought he was safe, even amid fierce scrutiny.

“Maybe, I was naive. I thought ‘maybe if we just stick it out’ then we might get some really good early picks and we could try to build it from there,” he said.

But a 52-point loss to Port Adelaide – before less than 12,000 fans – brought the matter to a head.

“It was a little unexpected,” he said.

“(At the meeting) Dermott (Brereton) was there, and Jason (Dunstall) and (Ian) Dicker.

“They were upfront and said, ‘The performances haven’t been good enough, we are going to part ways … but we would like you to coach until the end of the season’.

“I said: ‘You’ve just dumped this on me … I need some time to think about it and talk to some people.’

“They said: ‘No, we want to go out and announce it.’

“I said: ‘You can announce it, but I can’t say anything.’

“Dermott stayed in the room and gave me a bit of a cuddle. Sometimes when it happens from people you like, it’s worse (because) if it happens from people you don’t like, you don’t care.”

Schwab reluctantly agreed to coach out the season, but lasted only a week.

The Hawks were thrashed in round 17 by North Melbourne – Schwab’s 109th game as coach.

“(North) killed us,” he said. “I wasn’t right; the players weren’t right and I went and saw Jason on the Monday and asked him if it was OK with the footy club that I finish up right now.”

Hawthorn’s season had one silver lining.

They ended up with three first-round selections in the 2004 national draft, picking up a kid called Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis, giving new coach Alastair Clarkson a massive kick start.

Schwab would have every right to be angry that he didn’t get the chance to coach them and see out his contract.

He isn’t.

“It’s great the way the (draft) cards fell because Lance got through to (pick) five,” he said. “In some ways, to go as badly as we did, I helped the club in some ways.”

Four years later, Hawthorn won the 2008 flag.

PLAYING IN A GREAT HAWK ERA

Schwab came from a football family, half supporting Hawthorn and the other half Richmond.

He chose the Hawks for two reasons – his proximity to Glenferrie Oval and the fact Peter Hudson wore the brown and gold.

Schwab played 171 matches for the Hawks as one of their most consistent players surrounded by an array of superstars.

“I played in a good era,” Schwab said. “When you play in premierships, you play with good players. I was clearly not the best player in the team by any stretch, it was fighting for your spot (every week).”

He played in six grand finals and won premierships in 1983, ’86 and ’88.

He developed into one of the club’s most consistent players, often tagging stars such as Greg Williams, Wayne Schimmelbusch and Wayne Johnston.

“The benefit was that I had good players around me and we actually controlled a lot of those games,” he said.

“It wasn’t as though you were tagging and your team was getting thrashed. I remember ‘Schimma’ towelled me up one day and I offered no offensive challenge to him. I realised that I needed to get the ball as well.”

THE HEARTARCHE OF 1989

A flash of frustration in the 1989 preliminary final aimed at Essendon’s Andrew Manning cost Schwab a fourth premiership medal.

“It was just a silly action late,” he said. “It was a late elbow/forearm to the back of the head. There was a lot going on in the game.”

“I copped it and unfortunately I had to sit there and watch it and you watch one of the great grand finals.

“I wanted them to win. Tony Hall missed, ‘Collo’ (Andy Collins) tackled him in a state game and he did his knee. Paul Abbott broke his leg. So there were some other hard luck stories.

“I was lucky I had played in others. If it had been your only opportunity, it would have been more devastating.”

Schwab played 12 games in 1990 but was urged by outgoing coach Allan Jeans to change clubs.

“He said, ‘Look, they won’t play you’ (in 1991). In hindsight, I appreciate him telling me, but I thought, ‘What’s the point in leaving now’. I was 30, going into the last year of my contract. I didn’t see much point in moving.”

He was, as always, loyal to the club – and to football. It was the same after his sacking as coach in 2004.

Schwab later became chairman of the match review panel, chief executive of AFL Victoria, AFL director of coaching, director of coaching and development at Brisbane, and head of the AFL umpiring department.

Through all the slings and arrows that footy – and life – has thrown at him, he has remained true to his beliefs.

Not even Hawthorn’s success under Clarkson has ever elicited the slightest bit of jealousy, or what ifs.

“You could be bitter and say, ‘I wish it was me’,” Schwab said. “But the reality was it was never going to be me because I wasn’t going to be there (that long).”