Wallabies must double down to beat All Blacks

Attacking dynamos James O'Connor (left) and Kurtley Beale at Wallabies training in Melbourne yesterday. Picture: AAP

I ended my article last week on the Wallaby versus All Black contest in Perth by saying: “In my more optimistic moments, and on the current state of play, I would take the odds on offer for Australia.”

Well I did. I hope you did. I also wrote last week: “There is a vulnerability waiting to be exposed.”

And I said of the game, on the eve of it being played: “It may well have New Zealand reaching into the excuse bucket.” Well they did. The excuse was that they played a man short for half the match.

But, sadly for New Zealand, it doesn’t wash. The All Blacks were never in it. Well done to Michael Cheika and the Wallabies; and we did play some rugby; and we did deserve to win; and it is the highest score by any team ever against the All Blacks.

Tomorrow, however, could well be a different story. The statistics of last week will, I venture to opine, not be repeated.

We had 81 per cent of the possession in the first half; they had 19 per cent. We had 87 per cent of the territory; they had 13 per cent. Yet we only led 13-12 at halftime.

Overall we had 65 per cent of the possession; they had 35 per cent. This just doesn’t happen in a Test match.

We had 76 per cent of the territory in the game; they had 24 per cent.

All of this may have been a consequence of the fact that we had eight penalties to their four.

So what will happen tomorrow? I should say at the outset that South Africa in beating Argentina 46-13 have already won the Rugby Championship.

And, as an aside, I would urge you to take the odds on them in the World Cup.

To add to the All Black dilemma, Scott Barrett received a three-week suspension for a shoulder charge on Michael Hooper. Many believe Hooper “milked” the penalty.

However, if this stuff continues, the referees are going to ruin the World Cup if these calls are made in Japan. World Rugby should put players “on report” as they do in the NRL rather than spoil a game by carding players.

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The punter pays his money to watch a contest not a stitch-up. The mob in charge of World Rugby (is anyone in charge of World Rugby) and the blazer brigade need to address this issue or the World Cup could become a farce. Coaches around the world are screaming for consistency from referees; it seems unlikely to happen. The only way to ensure that World Cup games are not ruined by referee error is to use the “on report” system.

We have time to get this right if the blazer brigade just do their jobs — namely, promoting that which is in the best interests of the game. Well what about tomorrow? I don’t believe the contradictions of last week will be repeated.

Recent matches had suggested that team defence was overwhelming attack. Yet last Saturday, we had a 10-try shootout.

Not surprisingly, the Wallaby backline looked far more balanced with James O’Connor’s playmaking ability at 13. How stupid has rugby been isolating this young man for so long? His role is a simple role. It is what rugby is about, creating time and space for the three people at the back.

Kurtley Beale is dangerous in space; so is Marika Koroibete. But we don’t want forwards getting in the way of our backs and denying the backs the space through which they can rip open a defence.

One can only imagine the try-scoring potential if Israel Folau were playing on the wing with Beale and Koroibete.

All this sets up the decider at Eden Park, where the Wallabies have not beaten the All Blacks since my team won there in 1986. Back then, we secured the first Test in Wellington. I think we can say we were “robbed” in the second Test at Dunedin because 25 years later, the referee from that match admitted he was wrong in denying Steve Tuynman the try that would have won us the Test. Never mind. As they say, that’s rugby.

We headed to Auckland, as today’s team has, to win the Bledisloe Cup decider. The late Sir Brian Lochore was the All Black coach and, under enormous pressure, decided to roll the dice at Eden Park. They came out with a “run everything” game plan.

The old proverbial kitchen sink was thrown at us. Our defence was, by any objective definition, magnificent; one tackle by Enrique ‘Topo’ Rodriguez on the All Black hooker Hika Reid, with them on top of our line, will long live in the memory of those who were there.

In simple terms, our defence held up and our attack did the business. We played the width and made history.

I tell you this story, not to boast, but to hint at what might be ahead of this Wallaby team. The All Blacks will be hurting after conceding nearly 50 points. They will come out swinging and I don’t think they’ll be playing rope-a-dope. The Wallabies will have to double down on their defence.

The opening 20 minutes will be brutal. We will have to be patient and wait for our talent to create opportunities. The closer you get to the line the harder it is to score. Patience will be everything. I hate the word, but it does apply here, “composure”. They may try to play basketball rather than football. That would be to our advantage.

But what New Zealand understand clearly is this — the rugby world now smell blood in the water and all eyes are on Cheika’s team to see if they have the killer instinct to put the All Blacks away.

The tactic of driving our big men over the advantage line has the All Blacks rattled. On top of that, their once dominant forward pack often looks ponderous and slow.

Are the All Blacks in decline or about to emerge from a rut?

I must say here that sport has a habit of providing us with great stories of redemption.

There are not too many as interesting as that of O’Connor. This young man burst onto the rugby scene as a 17-year-old from Nudgee College in Queensland, a veritable rugby breeding ground.

He was subsequently recruited to the Western Force by John Mulvihill, a very fine Australian coach who would not be out of place coaching Australia. He is currently the Cardiff coach.

We tend to export our best and import foreigners who don’t understand the rugby culture of this country.

Like many talented young sportsmen, O’Connor was in a hurry to make his mark on the field, and he did that. Unfortunately, he also made his mark off the paddock and it eventually brought him undone.

When he was cast out of Australian rugby, he was taken in by London Irish and splendidly handled by Brian Smith, who was a member of that Wallaby team in 1986.

The loss to Australia, simply stated, is that this young man, gifted by any definition, has been cast adrift since 2013.

Of course, he should shoulder most of the blame. But as I have said in previous stories, the good coach takes the player with talent and changes the bad attitude.

O’Connor came home to try to force his way into the 2015 World Cup squad but he was rejected. Crazy! Such a talented player overlooked back then.

We should always have as our first duty the picking of our best. O’Connor might have been the difference when the Wallabies were looking for some cutting edge in the 2015 World Cup final. Those chances don’t come back.

He is surely on the plane for this World Cup in Japan. It is an odd thing in sport. We seem to want to highlight the weaknesses of people, rather than their strengths. Alas, it’s true of life.

Again I ask myself, what will happen tomorrow.

We look at the mountain of territory and possession last week in the first half and we’re up only 13-12. Barrett gets the red card. The All Blacks had scored two tries to one.

So, make no mistake, this All Black team will regroup; but I’m surprised that they’ve left 10 and 15 where they are and dropped Ben Smith. That’s a plus for us.

Sevu Reece, the flying in-form winger, has been included. Sonny Bill Williams will add power and experience in the middle and there is a “runaway bus” on the bench, Ngani Laumape. Watch for him.

So, what is to happen? We have gifted players. We seem to have achieved a rethink in the selection room. Change at halfback and in the centre have lifted our chances. The forward pack can at least hold its own. Most importantly the All Blacks are vulnerable, rattled and seemingly in retreat. I then come to the conclusion that I offered last week.

“On the current state of play I’ll be taking the odds on offer for Australia.”

A 13½ points start. Ridiculous.