The true cost of the Folau fight

Israel Folau’s free speech and freedom of religion crusade could cost rugby’s grassroots millions.

Wallabies coach Michael Cheika, left, with Israel Folau

At the height of the fire engulfing Notre-Dame Cathedral yesterday, this from Donald Trump: “Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!”

French authorities can be ­disdainful at the best of times, let alone when an interfering US President is attempting to tell them their business, but Trump’s suggestion was certainly rejected tres vite. The crush of water on the fire-ravaged structure, they noted, could have caused the ­entire cathedral to collapse.

Rugby Australia finds itself now in the same situation as the French firefighters.

It obviously desperately needs to put out the Israel Folau bushfire but it is attempting to do so in a way that doesn’t bring the whole structure of rugby in this country crashing to Earth.

Some would say that is ­precisely what it is doing in attempting to terminate Folau’s contract, but consider the alternative of doing absolutely nothing.

For starters, many sponsors would probably walk.

Although RA insists this was not a factor in its decision to serve Folau with a breach notice, it would have been negligent in its care of the game had it not taken this into account.

Granted, it is only an assumption the sponsors would walk.

So far, not a single one has contacted RA and threatened to ­cancel over Folau.

True, in the case of naming rights sponsor Qantas, that would be totally unnecessary ­because RA has just opened discussions with it about renewing its support. So it doesn’t need to make any threats.

If it is not happy with RA’s handling of the situation — and it is whispered it is happy with everything done to date — it could simply let the current sponsorship run its course and then walk away.

Yet it was only a year ago, following the original Folau social media episode, that it was making threats.

If it walked, taking the other sponsors with it, RA would be poorer to the extent of $28.2 million. That’s roughly equivalent to 25 per cent of its total annual ­revenue.

Now consider: the Western Force were culled from Super Rugby because RA couldn’t ­afford the $6m annually it cost to keep them afloat.

How would the loss of $28.2m, or even a goodly portion of it, ­affect the game?

RA wouldn’t shut down the professional game because that generates its income, so yet again it would be grassroots rugby that takes the hit.

This is what Folau’s free speech and freedom of religion could cost.

And the irony is that while he is spreading his religious opinion all over the internet, damning ­various categories to Hell unless they repent, the only place where he is not proselytising is at the Waratahs.

“He has never tried to force them (his beliefs) onto people here,” said Waratahs halfback Nick Phipps yesterday.

None of this is a problem of RA’s making.

When Folau answered a question about God’s will for homosexuals with the response “Hell, unless they repent” 12 months ago, RA didn’t kick him out. Everyone makes a mistake, it said. Indeed, its initial tardiness in ­disciplining him caused Qantas’s Alan Joyce to threaten his sponsorship.

He liked rugby’s values, particularly its inclusiveness, but if it wasn’t going to act out its values, what value did it bring to ­Qantas?

Eventually, Folau assured everyone he wouldn’t do it again. Perhaps this was one of the reasons RA CEO Raelene Castle didn’t insist on having a specific clause in his contract: because she believed him.

No wonder she looked so ­betrayed after Folau went back on his word last week. Almost certainly this will go to a code of conduct hearing next week and, while most of the legal opinion is RA’s decision to terminate him is valid and enforceable, there is some suggestion he could escape with a lengthy suspension.

What then?

Weekly Folau social media posts?

It’s probably forgotten now, but when Kurtley Beale was facing a code of conduct hearing in 2014, with his career in the balance, Folau threatened that if Beale was thrown out of the game, he would leave too.

It never came to that, but isn’t it curious that Folau is not attracting that level of support now. Clearly, many of them are fed up with being put through this turmoil every year, fed up with the distraction.

On Saturday at the SCG, Bernard Foley will go head to head with Quade Cooper in the Waratahs-Melbourne Rebels battle, yet all that has been lost this week. So even if, like Beale, he dodges a bullet at the code of conduct hearing next week, it has become almost impossible for Folau to continue playing rugby in Australia.

It would, in all likelihood, trigger player protests. RA could even find itself facing lawsuits from homosexuals within its own teams for allowing him to play.