Minnow sports, not public opinion, the key for Coates

Don’t be surprised if John Coates is re-elected despite an avalanche of bad publicity during a bitter AOC election campaign.

The numbers.

Don’t be surprised if John Coates is re-elected as president of the Australian Olympic Committee today, despite an avalanche of bad publicity during a bitterly-contested election campaign.

If the public voted, after hearing of allegations of bullying in the office, six-figure salaries and claims that the AOC does not distribute enough of its millions to athletes and has presided over a downturn in Australia’s Olympic returns, then Coates would probably be out on his ear.

The challenger Danni Roche, a bigger longshot than Donald Trump at the start of the election campaign, would be elected on a wave of populist support. But the public doesn’t vote in this election. That privilege is restricted to the 40 member sports, the members of the current AOC executive and the AOC Athletes’ Commission, and that is a very different constituency.

Roche’s supporters (or Coates’ detractors), have focused on trying to damage Coates publicly, delving into issues going back years and in some cases decades.

Coates has been in office for 26 years and has made tough decisions repeatedly throughout his tenure. He has not hesitated to wield his power to serve what he regards as the best interests of Olympic sport.

Since he began as IOC vice-president in 2013 his international duties have multiplied, as has his influence on the world stage, but it has taken him away repeatedly from his domestic role and his absences have allowed issues to fester.

Once the most astute reader of the wind in Australian sport, his judgment on some domestic issues has been lacking and his interventions ill-timed and sometimes clumsy for a man who is so steeped in the sports world. He has had too much on his plate and has taken his domestic support for granted, without always consulting either his board or the wider constituency of the national federations.

The consequence of that is that enemies old and new have joined together under the Roche banner to try to bring him down. Melbourne businessman Ron Walker’s grudge, for example, goes back to Coates engineering the decision for Sydney to have the right to bid for the 2000 Olympics rather than Melbourne, which had failed in its bid for the 1996 Games under Walker’s stewardship.

The opposition has had to try to damage the Olympic supremo’s reputation because it was the only way to loosen his grip on some of the national federations who have supported him unopposed through seven elections. However, Coates has largely avoided playing the public game until the last few days. He has given very few media interviews and focused all his efforts on securing the numbers he requires to win the vote. He needs 47 of the 93 votes cast in a secret ballot today to secure what he insists will be his last term in office.

When he emerged from his self-imposed silence this week it was clear that he had listened hard to the criticisms made of his administration and accepted that he would need to change the way he operated. He announced that new AOC chief executive Matt Carroll would assume most of the executive roles he has acquired over time and he would accept a commensurate cut in salary.

Roche has made a particular point of Coates’ $700,000 salary, saying she would do the job for free for the next four years, and return almost $3 million to the sports that have been hurt most by cuts to Australian Sports Commission funding in the past four years.

Coates has described Roche as a puppet of Australian Sports Commission boss John Wylie, emphasising that Wylie approached three other sports leaders John Bertrand, James Tomkins and Jeff Kennett to stand for the AOC presidency before Roche agreed.

Roche has tried to distance herself from the ASC, saying she believed in the AOC’s independence, while arguing that AOC funds should be used to replace the funding cuts imposed by the ASC.

However, her use of a firm of Melbourne political lobbyists, Civic Group, connected to the Liberal Party, to assist in her campaign has raised questions about her independence.

Some sports have complained of a high-handed approach on governance from the ASC and that will keep them in Coates’ camp despite any other concerns.

By yesterday, Coates appeared to have the numbers, just. He has solid backing from the seven Winter Olympic sports, which he has supported strongly since committing the AOC to part-fund the establishment of the Olympic Winter Institute 18 years ago.

He also has strong support among the smaller sports that have suffered most at the hands of the ASC and he has the majority of the AOC executive.

The bigger summer sports are split — hockey, aquatics and cycling are behind Roche. Athletics, rowing, sailing and football are with Coates — and so are the mid-level sports. But this is one occasion on which size doesn’t matter. All sports have the same voting power and the winter sports and the minnows should see Coates home.