Knives out at five-ring circus: it’s decision time for Coe & co at IOC

When the 108 or so members of the IOC decide on Thursday on the person to replace Thomas Bach, front of mind is self-interest.

IOC presidential candidate Sebastian Coe in Paris on January 31. Picture: AFP

Sebastian Coe, the well-credentialed head of World Athletics, has momentum behind his campaign to become the next International Olympic Committee president.

But will enough members sympathetic to the incumbent Thomas Bach coalesce behind an “anyone but Coe” push that has been gathering afoot in recent days?

When the 108 or so members of the IOC decide next Thursday on the person to replace the autocratic and “woke” Bach, front of mind is, naturally, self-interest.

Just who will be the candidate to help smooth the way for ­various countries – in Africa, the Middle East or South America – to host the Olympics in the ­future?

Who will take a strong stance on the current and emerging issues: transgender participation in the female category being the most egregious; future income streams to top up the organisation’s $US14bn ($22.3bn) in the bank; participation of athletes from conflict zones; and willing to take on the insidious abuse of athletes on social media?

Brisbane 2032 support

For Australia’s two voting members – Australian Olympic Committee president Ian Chesterman and the athletes commission representative and Olympic gold medallist Jess Fox – part of their decision making may be who will be the most supportive of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games.

Whoever wins will have a significant impact on Brisbane in many ways, including the sports that make the Olympic program, the ways in which consumers can digest the games, and who gets to compete.

The field is just seven candidates, but three, the International Gymnastics chief Morinari Watanabe, Jordanian Prince Feisal and Ski Federation boss Johan Eliasch, are considered outsiders.

Ski Federation boss Johan Eliasch is considered an outsider in the IOC presidential race. Picture: Getty Images

The main candidates

Another candidate, the world cycling federation boss David Lappartient, was working the rooms during the Paris Olympics, and may score more support than anticipated given his expertise in chairing the IOC’s new stream, the Esports and Gaming Liaison Group and that he straddles both the national Olympic committees and the international federations.

Yet the final rounds are expected to be fought out between three main candidates: Coe; Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr – yes the son of Juan Antonio Samaranch who stumbled over pronouncing Sidenee in 1993 and who led the organisation for 21 years – and Zimbabwe’s Olympic gold medal swimmer Kirsty Coventry.

Coe, who has the benefit of having nearly 200 countries involved in his sport, athletics, on paper is the most qualified candidate with sporting, political and business acumen.

However, despite being a world-famous athlete, the chair of a successful bid team for London 2012, then chairing the London organising committee, and then becoming president of the Olympics’ major sport, Coe, 68, almost didn’t make the start line.

New rules about eligibility, being an IOC member for the full term (when he has to leave the presidency of World Athletics in 2027, which gave him the IOC position in the first place) and having to relinquish a presidential post once he reaches 70, were put in his way.

Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr is expected to be one of the major three candidates for the IOC presidency. Picture: Jacquelin Magnay

Can-do Coe

Coe remained defiant and insisted on taking part, and of late has cut through to members wanting more of a say in the running and direction of the IOC, and ­having more focused remit on the athletes.

He is seen as the can-do candidate who is willing to give members more authority, and is not shy of tackling the biggest issues.

He is vastly different to Bach who produced Nobel Peace Prize efforts such as the two Koreas ice hockey team at the PyeongChang Olympics, or by stitching the “inclusivity” tag of the Paris Olympics to allow two boxers, whose gender was under a cloud, to win gold medals because they have “female” written on their passports.

And the word from the hallowed halls of the Olympic House in Lausanne is that Bach is none too pleased that Coe is winning over members on the eve of the vote. “It’s getting toasty,’’ said one Olympic observer.

Kirsty Coventry is the chief IOC representative of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games. Picture: Getty Images

Dirty tricks

In recent days several Olympic acolytes have been in touch, seeking to know if a story published last week I had written on Coventry – which was a longstanding ­arrangement and prompted by International Women’s Day, and the fact she is chief IOC representative of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games – was “planted” by an influential Olympic source.

I read into this that other members are keen to know if Bach had a surreptitious hand in the story, which could give them guidance for their own selections.

Early in the campaign, rumours spread that Coventry was going to withdraw, a false story that she derided as exposing the dirty tricks of others, and that they were worried about her chances of success.

Another suggested it had been Bach’s plan to have everyone fall in line behind Coventry including having a quiet word to other possible female candidates to step aside, but now he is left with having a choice of two main contenders that he doesn’t like.

In recent days some members have suggested the numbers for Coventry, who is Bach’s chief choice – may have fallen away – not coincidentally when Bach announced he would stand down as an IOC member when his tenure finishes in June.

If this is true, who will the supporters of Bach, wanting a continuation of his autocratic, left-leaning regime, now vote for?

Bach and Coe have had a rocky relationship, most recently over Coe’s awarding of prize money to successful athletes at the Paris Olympics, and the Englishman’s longstanding leadership on the rights of biological women to be able to compete fairly – without the results skewed by biological men and DSD athletes who have a significant testosterone advantage.

The views of IOC president Thomas Bach have often clashed with those of the leading candidates. Picture: AFP

Controversial issues

The relationship had started to sour at the Rio 2016 Olympics when Coe took a harsh line on Russian participation after systemic drug cheating was uncovered. And then last year Coe “went rogue” and announced prize money for winning Olympic track and field athletes.

Bach eventually came around on the Russian cheating, but on issues like transgender, he ignored the clamour from female athletes demanding fairness, and went down the controversial route of inclusivity.

Interestingly nearly all of the IOC candidates have since hardened their views on this issue, including Coventry and Samaranch, who were both on the IOC executive board at the time of such questionable decision-making.

Coe, who had led the International Federations’ stance on the issue after world athletics, and a $4m legal bill, has long had to defend its position against DSD athletes like Caster Semenya in court.

Coe supporters have been annoyed that suddenly his fiercest rivals, including Samaranch have “read the room” and are suddenly adopting the same philosophy.

World cycling federation boss David Lappartient may score more support than anticipated. Picture: Getty Images

Samaranch, 65, has argued he is his own man and does things very differently to his father. But in this election, his establishment of the Samaranch Foundation in recognition of his father includes three current Chinese IOC members on the board, all of whom have a vote next week.

The Spaniard’s point of difference to other candidates is his two decades-long standing relationship with them all, and his desire for the Olympics to be centred around the Olympic village rather than spreading the Games around regions.

The skulduggery of IOC elections, the factions and bloc voting along intersecting lines of interest (athletes, finances, regions, sports, Olympic committees and federations) makes predicting a winner fraught. Many members will promise a vote to one candidate, but not reveal in which round that vote will be given. One IOC member said: “The only vote you can trust is the one telling you they are not voting for you.”