Stats show Queensland’s goalkicking weakness could hurt

Kevin Walters has had to solve so many problems he may have forgotten one. Can Valentine Holmes kick a goal?

Valentine Holmes is under pressure as Queensland’s goalkicker

Kevin Walters has been so busy putting a red line through Cameron Smith, and Johnathan Thurston, and Cooper Cronk, and Matt Scott, and Darius Boyd, and Billy Slater, and maybe Dane Gagai, and rushing in Anthony Milford and Kalyn Ponga and basically anyone other than Daly Cherry-Evans, that he’s barely had time to consider one of the most important questions of all. Can Valentine Holmes kick a goal?

The MCG is going to be damp and slippery and not ideal for a festival of the boot. Walters has lost his first-choice goalkicker in Thurston and his second-choice goalkicker in Smith, and rather than opting for another specialist, he’s opted for a part-timer in Holmes to add the extras.

It’s an extraordinarily risky proposition given that a struck match may be between the sides. Again. That the result may come down to goalkicking. Again. There’s been five instances since 2012 of Origin matches being decided by which kicker has found the black dot.

Two other matches have been one-point ball games, meaning the result may have been reversed by goalkicking. If the spate of penalties in the NRL is replicated tonight, it will be costly if there’s chewy on the boot of Holmes or the Blues’ James Maloney.

Holmes is not even the goalkicker for his club at the Cronulla Sharks. Chad Townsend does it. “I’ve taken it seriously in training,” he said in the build-up to Origin I. “It’s not going to be a muck around. JT won the game last year (in Origin II) with a conversion so it’s something we have to take seriously.”

So many recent cliffhangers have come down to kicking. In game three of 2013, it was two tries apiece but Thurston’s two successful kicks trumped Maloney’s one. The Maroons won 12-10. In game one of 2014, it was again two tries each but Trent Hodkinson landed two goals while Thurston missed both of his. The Blues won 12-8.

In game three of 2016, the Blues won 18-14 when Maloney landed two attempts and Thurston missed twice. In game one of the same year, Thurston kicked one goal, Adam Reynolds missed and the Maroons won 6-4. And in game two last year, it was three tries apiece before Thurston famously landed three from three. Maloney made two from three and the Maroons snuck home 18-16.

Maloney is expected to kick tonight. He kicks at 80 per cent. Nathan Cleary kicks at 90 per cent but he’s returning from a knee injury and says Maloney will line them up. Holmes has an ordinary strike rate of 71.88 per cent when he’s filled in at the Sharks.

Not great odds for must-make attempts at Origin, which is another reason for the Maroons to be underdogs. Just the way they like it.

Asked why he thinks the Maroons will win, Walters says: “As Queenslanders, I see a real unity among them. Greg Inglis is a big factor in everything we have done this week around his captaincy. They will get in behind Greg and support him in every way. Defensively, we have worked really hard this week. That’s where the game will be won.

“I know there’s a lot of attacking flair on both sides but defensively we have worked really hard this week on minimising the impact of some of the NSW players. If we can get that right, we give ourselves every chance to win the game.

“I wouldn’t say it’s backs to the wall because we have 17 healthy players ready to go. But Origin is challenging every day. The boys just rally. They just want to play.”