State of Origin back-up rater: Which SuperCoach players will and won’t play after Origin 2

State of Origin 2 takes place in Perth next week which will make it tough for many players to back up. But plenty are still rated decent chances.

We are living in unprecedented times.

This is a sentence that gets thrown around a lot, but when it comes to State of Origin it truly is the case.

That’s because despite this being the third ever Origin game in Western Australia, it’s the first ever game on a Wednesday night.

Which means that when predicting which players will back up after a long flight home from Perth to the Eastern Seaboard (or even Auckland for Warriors and Panthers players), we have no precedent to follow.

Thankfully despite being without precedent, we have common sense, injury reports and even a few coaches’ comments that we can use to give you the best idea on which players are most and least likely to feature for their clubs in Round 16. So let’s dive in!

Least likely to most likely

Stephen Crichton, Max King, Kurt Mann, Valentine Holmes, Matt Burton

We’ve started off being a bit cheeky in calling out these players who we rate a zero per cent chance of backing up due to the fact their clubs - the Bulldogs, Dragons and Sea Eagles are all on the bye.

Likelihood: 0 per cent chance of backing up.

Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, Brian To’o

Those who dive deep into scheduling would have noticed a while back that the Penrith Panthers’ Round 16 game in Auckland on Saturday night after Origin is a difficult one for the players to get to.

Putting aside the quick turnaround between Wednesday and Saturday night, the almost seven hour direct flight is a significant hurdle. And rightly so, coach Ivan Cleary has already gone on record to say his Origin stars won’t be lining up in round 16 due to the travel and playing loads.

We’ll always keep the door slightly ajar because NRL administrators can often have a difference between their words and actions but we’re not hopeful these guys back up.

Likelihood: 10 per cent chance of backing up.

Nathan Cleary is next to no chance of backing up. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

Kurt Capewell | 1.3 per cent owned

For all the same reasons we are unlikely to see the Panthers boys lineup in Round 16, Kurt Capewell also is given a very low chance of backing up for the Warriors. The only thing in his favour is a lesser role off the bench for Queensland, but in all likelihood coach Andrew Webster probably rests him.

Likelihood: 25 per cent chance of backing up.

Hudson Young | 10.4 per cent owned

Logistically it’s going be hard for Hudson to make it back for his Raiders. As much as his Origin workload should not prevent him from playing, the Raiders play the first game of the Round just two days later which means he will in all likelihood be on a plane whilst his teammates are completing captains’ run.

You never say never with Huddy but it’s unlikely he makes it out for Friday night footy in Round 16.

Likelihood: 25 per cent chance of backing up.

Cameron Munster | 40.8 per cent owned

Again, in the face of doubt we were able to accurately project Munster’s backing up in Round 13 given the fact his Storm played in the same state as the Origin fixture. But this time around I am projecting the Storm take a conservative approach with their five-eighth and lean into the growing fitness and form of his teammates.

With the game on Saturday giving him limited recovery time, plus the flight to Sydney to deal with, it’s a long season and they need to make sure he’s fit for end the year.

Likelihood: 33 per cent chance of backing up.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui | 53.1 per cent owned

The Titans skipper will want to, but may not be medically cleared to play. Reports emerged post Round 14 that Tino was dealing with a sternum injury which – per our great mate NRL Physio – is one of the most painful injuries to play through.

I expect the club to give him the chance to rest given he has a significant role with Queensland, but don’t be shocked if he does make a smaller minute cameo off the bench in a match the Titans will enter believing they can win against Parramatta.

Likelihood: 33 per cent chance of backing up.

Payne Haas | 50 per cent owned

We accurately projected Haas to line up in Round 13 after Origin 1 despite the concerns of his quad injury. This time around it’s more difficult to determine just what the Broncos are going to do with their star.

In his favour is the Sunday turnaround, giving him three days off to recover. Throw in the precarious ladder position the Broncos find themselves in at the moment and their desperation to win and it does lean towards him backing up. But again, the travel factor is real.

I’m going to sit on the fence on this one. Given the final Origin game is in Sydney and the Broncos have the Round 20 bye, it feels more likely that this will be the Origin game they choose to rest him afterwards of the three (per how he’s be managed previously) but Haas is as far from a normal human as we have seen so may soldier on.

Likelihood: 50 per cent chance of backing up.

Payne Haas is rated a 50 per cent chance of backing up. Picture: Rohan Kelly

Zac Lomax | 7.7 per cent owned

The Eels play the final game of the round, but Lomax has looked exhausted in his last two NRL games. Having missed five weeks earlier this year with a foot injury, perhaps his match fitness is still not quite where he’d like it to be. This could be the week we see Parramatta see him given a break to make sure their attacking weapon is able to shine as we get deeper into the season.

Likelihood: 50 per cent chance of backing up.

Reece Robson | 2.5 per cent owned

The Cows play in Sydney on Sunday which is a decent amount of time to get ready to play and a simple direct flight. Of their contingent, Robson may need rest time. However given the hamstring awareness he reported after backing up in Round 13. I believe the Cows will err on the side of caution with him given the importance he has to their squad long term.

Likelihood: 50 per cent chance of backing up.

Pat Carrigan | 14.5 per cent owned

With zero doubts over his fitness currently, Carrigan feels more likely to get a game than Haas but may need to take a cautious approach for his longevity. The long backup is in his favour but the long term view might be to give him a rest.

If he does get on, expect a reduction in minutes.

Likelihood: 60 per cent chance of backing up.

Xavier Coates | 7.6 per cent owned

The cautious approach to rest Coates after State of Origin Game 1 came off the back of his hamstring issues at the start of the season. And with an 80 minute position on the wing for Queensland, the Storm could take the same route again.

Likelihood: 60 per cent chance of backing up.

Harry Grant | 7.4 per cent owned

As with Coates, Grant’s legs needed and got a rest post Origin. And with no noted hooker in the Queensland squad to give Harry a spell during Game 2 it remains to be seen exactly what demands will be placed on him over in Perth.

Again with a long term view, I expect the Storm to take a cautious approach, albeit Round 14 was the best he’s looked in about two months so we could see him play off the bench in a lesser minute role.

Likelihood: 60 per cent chance of backing up.

Harry Grant is rated a 60 per cent chance of backing up. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Stefano Utoikamanu | 4 per cent owned

Stefano’s call-up into the Origin squad to cover the injury to Mitch Barnett was a formality given his presence in the Game 1 squad. Of the Storm contingent, he’s the most likely to backup for his club given he will have the smallest minute role.

Likelihood: 66 per cent chance of backing up.

Latrell Mitchell | 3.4 per cent owned

There’s no doubt Latrell will be desperate to play. But the Saturday back-up and his early season soft tissue injury may give South’s reason to be cautious with their most important player. They have a bye after Round 19 which will be a natural chance for recovery for their star player however so pending how he pulls up after Perth, I believe Latrell is likely to show up for Souths in their clash with the Storm.

Likelihood: 70 per cent chance of backing up.

Kalyn Ponga | 14.6 per cent owned

The Knights are in a blessed position in that they play in Perth on the Saturday night after Game 2, meaning there’s only a very short trip across town for Ponga to back up. Counting against him however is the on-going ankle injury he’s dealing with.

Of the Queensland contingent, his chances are up there but it will be dependent on how he pulls up after Wednesday night.

Likelihood: 70 per cent chance of backing up.

Connor Watson | 20.2 per cent owned

Likely to only play limited minutes off of the bench, provided he’s fit Watson is set to feature significantly for the Chooks four days after the Origin game back in Sydney.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Spencer Leniu | 2.7 per cent owned

See above. Leniu will likely start for the Chooks and play his usual minutes.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Robert Toia | 32.1 per cent owned

After a strong Origin debut, there was little doubt over his call-up for Game 2. The rumour mill is also strongly swirling that Dom Young will move from the Chooks to the Knights in Round 16 which means there’s a backline vacancy with Toia’s name on it on Sunday in Sydney. Accordingly, Toia’s a good of a chance as anyone to play.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Moeaki Fotuaika | 0.5 per cent owned

The Titans are pretty desperate for troops. And whilst his skipper is in doubt as he manages a sternum issue, expect Fotuaika to line-up but play a reduced role for his Titans on the Sunday in Sydney post origin.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Jeremiah Nanai | 2.4 per cent owned

Todd Payten played him for 76 minutes after Origin Game 1 which shows he is fit. But with the odometer starting to add up for game time this year, maybe Nanai will be given some respite?

The fitness of the Cows forward pack is improving with Kai O’Donnell back in Round 15. So expect Nanai to play but play (for his sake) less minutes.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Reuben Cotter | 2.1 per cent owned

Fitness and freshness shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Cotter who is strong in both of those departments. But as per most of these forwards, he could play reduced minutes in the Rounds between 16 and 19 in order to preserve himself.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Tom Dearden | 5 per cent owned

Stepping into a starting role for Queensland shouldn’t slow Dearden down too much. He’s in the side for his energizer qualities and those should translate to him being able to back-up for his Cows on Sunday in Sydney.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Lindsay Collins | 1.4 per cent owned

As a bench player, Collins’ minutes aren’t expected to be huge in the Origin arena. And he should be more than capable of getting through his 40 minutes per game average in clubland at the Chooks.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Trent Loiero | 0.8 per cent owned

The Game 1 debutant isn’t expected to be carrying a huge amount of minutes on Wednesday night despite moving into the starting side. Of the Storm contingent, Loiero joins Stefano in the most likely to backup camp.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Angus Crichton | 4.2 per cent owned

We know Angus will want to play for his Chooks and had an impeccable record of backing up for his club last year. But again, as we enter the unknown of the first ever Wednesday night game in Perth, it could be astute for the club to take a cautious approach given his value to the club, even if that just means not playing the 80.

Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | 5.2 per cent owned

As the sole member of the ‘Phins in Origin camp for either club, the Hammer joins Ponga as having the helpful cross-town trip to deal with in Round 16. With his club side firing on all cylinders, he will want to play in what’s a crucial match-up for their Top 8 hopes and accordingly has the best chance of backing up of any player provided he’s fit.

Likelihood: 90 per cent chance of backing up.

Ezra Mam | 5.4 per cent owned

The 18th man for Queensland shouldn’t have any dramas making it back for his Broncos provided his plane gets him back to Brisbane safely for his game on Sunday.

Likelihood: 100 per cent chance of backing up.