NRL teams round 3, SuperCoach analysis: Savelio Tamale wins wing battle, Tom Duffy bites dust

SuperCoach prices are about to change and here are the players to target before they surge, and conversely, the players to sell before they plummet.

Teams are in for round 3 and it’s a mixed bag for SuperCoaches on the biggest trading week of the year.

WINNERS

* Savelio Tamale - Named for the Raiders with Albert Hopoate missing the 17. Job security is therefore as confirmed as it can be and the key numbers make good reading – BE of -59 and projected rise of $82,000.

* Tom Trbojevic - Named for the Sea Eagles after being cleared of a hamstring injury, but no guarantee to play. Plays the last game of the round so watch Late Mail.

* Cameron Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Storm players - Back from the bye and now with an open schedule, the Storm are serious targets over the next fortnight.

* Jaxon Purdue - Named in his usual centre position despite suggestions he could lose his spot.

* Jack Gosiewski - Named to start despite rumours he’d be dropped. Big watch for Late Mail.

Hits and misses from the round 3 teams.

LOSERS

* Tom Duffy - The popular cheapie has been axed as Cowboys halfback.

* David Fifita - Again named on the bench after playing just 31 minutes last week. Should drop to a juicy price soon.

* Matt Burton - Set to miss at least two weeks with a knee injury.

* Zac Hosking - Popular mid-ranger is out for 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury.

* Dylan Edwards - Out for 2-4 weeks with a groin injury.

—Tom Sangster

ROB SUTHERLAND’S SUPERCOACH MUSINGS AND Q&A

Forget the first Team List Tuesday of the season, this week is my idea of the real ‘SuperCoach Christmas’ – because this is the round that, barring a round one injury disaster, trades begin.

MY TRADES

I fully intended to use a boost this week, and may still end up doing so, but at this stage I’m making one trade I really like, one I’m talking myself into and holding on to my boost rather than ‘rage trade’.

The trade I really like is moving on from Tom Duffy. The youngster showed some decent signs in attack, but his defence was found out early in his first grade career and he’s been dumped for Jake Clifford (who played 80 minutes for the Northern Pride in QCup last weekend).

There are no bottom-dollar options to replace Duffy at half, but luckily there are two excellent options available for just $100-150K more. South Sydney’s Jamie Humphreys (HFB $305,400) is the closest thing to a like-for-like replacement. Something of a surprise packet as he was pencilled in behind Lewis Dodd on the Rabbitohs depth chart to start the season Humphreys has made the most of Dodd’s early injuries to play 80 minutes in each of the opening two games and average an excellent 61 points per game (PPG) over that span.

Re-live Rob’s live blog via the comments section below…

Humphreys’ job security looks good having drawn special praise from coach Wayne Bennett after kicking the team to victory over the Dragons last weekend and his keen work in defence (over 50 tackles in two weeks) plus decent goalkicking (averaging 10PPG over the past fortnight) provides a solid base which should see a nice price rise over the next 2-3 weeks. However, there are some minor niggles.

Firstly, the Rabbitohs have enjoyed a soft early draw playing the Dolphins and Dragons. The next three games, Sharks/Panthers/Roosters, will prove tougher. Secondly, the return of Latrell Mitchell (admittedly a ways off so this is a lower order issue) will see Humphreys lose goalkicking.

On balance I have no issues with Humphreys as a buy. But, if you, like me have Sandon Smith at hooker, then you also have the option of selling Duffy, sliding Smith down to HFB and picking up Tom Starling (HOK $342,600).

The nuggety Raider has been sensational over the opening two rounds averaging 69 minutes per game (MPG) and 83PPG. Averaging 40+ in base per game and over 100 metres running per game Starling looks to be delivering on the promise we’ve been glimpsing for the last few seasons. With a BE of -58 this week and a negative BE predicted again next week there is a lot of money to be made here while also delivering a reliable score that I can play in my 17 week in week out.

(L-R) Canberra’s Tom Starling and Corey Horsburgh have been early SuperCoach studs. Picture: NRL Photos

The trade I have talked myself into is Jesse Arthars (CTW $341,500) – via duals as reluctantly selling Mitch Barnett (bit more on that below). Despite being a bit anti-Arthars after round one (low base, won’t keep scoring tries etc etc) I can’t ignore his form (averaging 95PPG), money making potential (predicted to jump $150K+ over the past fortnight) and soft draw (Cowboys/Dolphins/Wests Tigers in next three weeks).

For the record I don’t think Arthars is a keeper, rather he’s a stepping stone. The keepers I did look at (with Garrick/RTS/McLean/Fermor/Purdue/Shibasaki and Toia already in my team) were Greg Marzhew, Dylan Lucas, Matt Timoko and Connor Tracey and I would be happy with any one of those as a BUY, but in the end I have prioritised cash generation over points early and so Arthars it is.

The rage trade I am not making, and thus boost I am saving, is Dylan Brown. The Eels were very very poor on the weekend and while Brown started the match well he quickly faded. I am very tempted to move Brown on to Cam Munster who looks to be a bit of a steal at $600K, but have decided to hold firm.

Save that boost (invaluable later in season) and give Brown one more week. Brown’s BE is 99 so he’ll probably lose a little cash, but I believe he’ll get within 30 (or so) of that against the Dogs and thus lose less than $30K. Munster had the round two bye so his price won’t increase no matter what he scores. I figure a boost is worth more than $30K and maybe 20-30 points so DylBaaags gets a reprieve – for now.

Re-live Rob’s live blog via the comments section below…

POPULAR TRADES

That’s enough about my plans now onto the moves others are making:

SELLS

Jaxon Purdue – The Cowboys are playing horribly and Purdue is battling to get much ball (averaging just a tad over 10 runs per game). The short term draw is not great (Broncos, Raiders, Panthers) but it opens up after that and if Purdue can hold his spot and the team find some form then the money will come. If you are missing the likes of Gehamat Shibasaki, Robert Toia or Arthars and have no other way into them then I can see the point of this sell, but provided he keeps being named I’ll hold.

Tom Trbojevic – This one is tricky. Tommy T is tipped to be named to play on the weekend, and if he plays then at home he’s a legitimate captaincy option as he 1. loves playing at home and 2. has a career average (from 12 games) of 93.8PPG against the Raiders. However, the spectre of a hamstring injury suffered against the Warriors looms. And Manly play the final game of the round so if you select him and he does not play you may be caught short for replacement options. Despite the risks I for one will not be selling Tommy T until there is definitive news that he is out for an extended period. He’s just too good.

Jarome Luai – The Tigers looked good (or Eels looked horrid depending on your perspective) last weekend and yet Luai barely scored. I’m good with this sell with Munster the top target.

J’maine Hopgood – A rare Eels who could leave the field against the Tigers with his head held high, but I get this sell for the likes of Haas or Fa’asuamaleaui (below).

Kaeo Weekes – The Raiders have scored 62 points across the opening two games of the season and Weekes has scored just 54 points over that span. That’s not good. Sell.

Zac Hosking – Injured, sell. Matty Nicholson is the player who may benefit but I’ll wait and watch him this week before pulling the trigger on that buy.

Matt Burton – Injured, an easy sell to Munster.

Mitch Barnett – A reluctant sell for mine because after scoring 55 points in 51 minutes I was expecting Barnett’s score to approach his 2024 average (68PPG) with a bit of a minutes boost. Sadly, round two saw the minutes return (61) but the score did not follow with Barnett scoring just 44 points. The base is there and the power stats will come, but with my other forwards going well I’m going to realise a portion of Barnett’s big salary cap elsewhere.

Reece Walsh – After 95 points in round one, Walsh came crashing down to earth with just nine points last week having made a paltry five runs. Walsh has never been the most consistent fullback and I do expect those that hold him to be rewarded with some big scores against the Cowboys, Dolphins and Tigers as his next three opponents but I also can get around those selling.

BUYS

Payne Haas – The big Bronco has been in superb form to start the season churning out massive base while busting 18 tackles and throwing 11 offloads across two games. While I dearly want him I currently have Terrell May, Tino and Corey Horsburgh in my FRF and with problems elsewhere to deal with I will have to wait a while longer before adding Haas. For those in a similar boat the, slight, upside to that is even if Haas keeps averaging high 80s he’ll only add around $100K over the next three weeks.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui – Welcome back Tino! The big man barely missed a beat on his return from an ACL injury busting out 60 in base and plenty of power and attack too. A must at this price but if you can’t get him in this week at least you know his price will not rise until next week due to the Titans being on a bye in round one.

Kalyn Ponga – Averaging over 100PPG without scoring a try, Ponga is popping up all over the field for the Knights and clearly driving everything good in their attack. Get him in.

Ryan Papenhuyzen – The Storm looked fantastic against the Eels in round one and Ryan Papenhuyzen feasted too scoring 131 points. Up against the Panthers this week I do expect Melbourne to win the game but Penrith are historically good SuperCoach killers and with Storm player prices not moving this week I think the better time to buy is next week ahead of the Dragons match.

Savelio Tamale – The rookie has more than delivered for Ricky Stuart and his Raiders over the opening two weeks and while many of us thought his job security was questionable it will be hard for the Raiders to drop him now. But who knows with Ricky? Personally I prefer Arthars despite his higher price entry point but if named this week then I won’t try to talk you out of the move.

Corey Horsburgh – Big Red is delivering good base and big power compared to the top priced FRF/2RF and doing so at almost half the price of many priced at close to double him.

Savelio Tamale will line up on the wing for the Raiders. Picture: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

RAVALAWA INCLUDED FOR SOUTHS

New South Sydney signing Mikaele Ravalawa will be named in the Rabbitohs’ extended squad.

Ravalawa is yet to have a full session with his new club after joining the Rabbitohs from St George Illawarra this week.

He will be named outside the 17 but remains a chance of forcing his way into the top squad once the coaching staff have a first-hand look at him.

—Michael Carayannis

KHAN-PEREIRA OUT FOR TITANS

The Titans have been dealt a double blow with try-scoring winger Alofiana Khan-Pereira sidelined.

Khan-Pereira suffered a hamstring injury in Gold Coast’s season-opening loss to Canterbury on Sunday.

Prop Jaimin Jolliffe has also been ruled out of Saturday’s clash with the Knights at Cbus Super Stadium.

Khan-Pereira bagged a double against the Bulldogs and is one of Des Hasler’s most potent attacking threats.

—Travis Meyn

ROUND THREE TEAMS

STORM V PANTHERS

8pm Thursday March 20, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Interchange: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Lazarus Vaalepu

Reserves: 18. Bronson Garlick 19. Joe Chan 20.Kane Bradley, 21. Coby Williamson 22. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Panthers

1. Daine Laurie 2. Casey McLean 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange: 14. Brad Schneider 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner

Reserves: 18. Blaize Talagi 19. Trent toelau 20. Matt Eisenhuth 21. Luke Sommerton 22. Thomas Jenkins

WARRIORS V ROOSTERS

6pm Friday March 21, GO Media Stadium, Auckland

Warriors

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Taine Tuaupiki 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Adam Pompey 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark

Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Jackson Ford 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Leka Halasima

Reserves: 18. Jacob Laban 20. Te Maire Martin 21. Freddy Lussick 22. Bunty Afoa 23. Rocco Berry

Roosters

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Mark Nawaqanitawase 4. Robert Toia 5. Dominic Young 6. Sandon Smith 7. Chad Townsend 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Naufahu Whyte 11. Angus Crichton 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley

Interchange: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Salesi Koketi 16. Blake Steep 17. Lindsay Collins

Reserves: 18. Hugo Savala 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Billy Smith 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Ethan Roberts

BRONCOS V COWBOYS

8pm Friday March 21, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Deine Mariner 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Patrick Carrigan 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington

Interchange: 14. Billy Walters, 15. Corey Jensen, 16. Xavier Willison, 17. Brendan Piakura

Reserves: 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Kotoni Staggs 20. Martin Taupau 21. Jaiyden Hunt 22. Jock Madden

Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. John Bateman 12. Kai O’Donnell 13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Jeremiah Nanai 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess

Reserves: 18. Harrison Edwards 19. Thomas Duffy 20. Thomas Mikaele 21. Karl Lawton 22. Jaxson Paulo

SHARKS V RABBITOHS

3pm Saturday 22nd March, Sharks Stadium, Sydney

Sharks

1. William Kennedy 2. Samuel Stonestreet 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes

Interchange: 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Braden Hamlin-Uele 17. Tuku Hau Tapuha

Reserves: 18. Billy Burns 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Hohepa Puru 21. Niwhai Puru 22. Jayden Berrell

Rabbitohs

1. Jye Gray 2. Isaiah Tass 3. Jack Wighton 4. Campbell Graham 5. Fletcher Myers 6. Cody Walker 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Sean Keppie 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Davvy Moale 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Tallis Duncan

Interchange: 14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Siliva Havili 16. Liam Le Blanc 17. Tevita Tatola

Reserves: 18. Mikaele Ravalawa 19. Lewis Dodd 20. Jacob Host 21. Thomas Fletcher 22. Salesi Ataata

DOLPHINS V WESTS TIGERS

5:30pm, Saturday 22nd March, Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe

Dolphins

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Junior Tupou 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Oryn Keeley 12. Max Plath 13. Tom Gilbert

Interchange: 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Josh Kerr 16. Mark Nicholls 17. Ray Stone

Reserves: 18. Sean O’Sullivan 19. Max Feagai 20. Kenny Bromwich 21. Jack Bostock 22. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

Wests Tigers

1. Jahream Bula 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal

Interchange: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Bird 17. Sione Fainu

Reserves: 18. Latu Fainu 19. Heath Mason 20. Charlie Staines 21. Tony Sukkar 22. Solomona Faataape

TITANS V KNIGHTS

7:35pm, Saturday 22nd March, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Titans

1. Keano Kini 2. Tony Francis 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. AJ Brimson 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Klese Haas 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

Interchange: 14. Chris Randall 15. David Fifita 16. Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui 17. Brock Gray

Reserves: 18. Jaylan De Groot 19. Arama Hau 20. Jacob Alick-Wienke 21. Tom Weaver 22. Ken Maumalo

Knights

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. James Schiller 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Brodie Jones 11. Dylan Lucas 12.Tyson Frizell 13. Adam Elliott

Interchange: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Thomas Cant 17. Mat Croker

Reserves: 18. Kyle McCarthy 19. Jermaine McEwen 20. Will Pryce 21. Matthew Arthur 22. Tyrone Thompson

EELS V BULLDOGS

4:05pm, Sunday 23rd March, CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Will Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Jordan Samrani 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Jack Williams 13. J’maine Hopgood

Interchange: 14. Ryley Smith 15. Matt Dooery 16. Kitione Kautoga 17. Sam Tuivaiti

Reserves: 18. Ryan Matterson 19. Joash Papalii 20. Dan Kier 21. Hosh Addo-Carr 22. Joey Lussick

Bulldogs

1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Bailey Hayward 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Joshua Curran 11. Sitili Tupouniua 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann

Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 17. Kurtis Morrin

Reserves: 19. Joseph O’Neill 20. Jack Todd 21. Blake Taaffe 22. Luke Smith 23. Jonathan Sua

SEA EAGLES V RAIDERS

6:15pm, Sunday 23rd March, 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Sea Eagles

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange: 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Josh Aloiai

Reserves: 18. Tommy Talau 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Jakob Arthur 21. Nathan Brown 22. Raymond Tuiamalo Vaega

Raiders

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Corey Horsburgh 11. Hudson Young 12. Matt Nicholson 13. Morgan Smithies

Interchange: 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Trey Mooney 17. Ata Mariota

Reserves: 18. Danny Levi 19. Albert Hopoate 20. Pasami Saulo 21. Jed Stuart 22. Ethan Sanders