Broncos’ 2024 NRL finals equation: Brisbane’s road map to a top eight berth

The Broncos are banking on their NRL rivals to slay the Dragons to help them complete the most unlikely of finals resurrections. We analyse Brisbane’s path to the top eight.

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Fresh off back-to-back comeback victories, the Broncos are banking on their NRL rivals to slay the Dragons to help them complete the most unlikely of finals resurrections.

Brisbane’s season appeared dead and buried less than four weeks ago when they slumped to their 12th loss of the season.

But the Broncos haven’t let their critics write their obituary just yet as they have twice fought back from double-digit deficits to score gritty victories

Brisbane have jumped into ninth place on the NRL ladder, and their quest to secure the final place in the finals series is going down to the wire in the last two rounds.

However, their destiny is not yet in their own hands.

Brisbane need St George Illawarra to lose one of their final two games – against Parramatta or Canberra – if they’re to have any hope of reaching the post-season.

First, the Broncos have a blockbuster derby against fellow top-eight contenders the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Things get even harder the week after when they host Melbourne.

Having already secured the minor premiership, Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy is primed to exact revenge on Brisbane by rest players from this week’s trip to North Queensland, meaning he will roll out his big guns in a final-round assault to send the Broncos crashing out of the premiership race.

Bellamy rested 10 Melbourne players for their round 27 showdown with the Broncos 12 months ago, which the Storm won 32-22 at Suncorp Stadium.

But Bellamy has not forgotten the events of the following week, when the Broncos hit back by flogging the Storm 26-0 in the opening week of the finals — delivering the bullet to Melbourne’s title hopes.

Now it’s payback time for Bellamy.

“Without a doubt, we’ll be doing some resting this week,” Storm coach Craig Bellamy said on Monday.

“We might even do a little bit in the last game (against the Broncos). I don’t know yet, but certainly this week.”

In a five-way battle St George Illawarra are the bookies’ $1.65 favourites to claim that final spot in the top eight, ahead of Brisbane ($4.75), Newcastle ($5.50), the Dolphins ($10) and Canberra ($34).

While the TAB’s Rohan Welsh said he held grave fears for the Broncos’ finals chances, he said punters would be sweating on them making it.

“Plenty of punters will be hoping Brisbane can squeeze through the finals door somehow as they’re still the third best backed with TAB to win the title,” Welsh said.

“Around 13 per cent of the investments on the back of some major money over the off-season and on grand final night last year.”

Former Broncos and Cronulla premiership hooker Michael Ennis believes Brisbane could be a dark horse if they pull off a finals miracle.

“If they scrape into the eight and all of a sudden you roll out Reece Walsh and Payne Haas, other sides would be a little bit nervous to play Brisbane,” Fox Sports analyst Ennis said.

Broncos coach Kevin Walters is ready to shock the Storm, saying on Friday night after beating the Eels: “There is no ‘if’ here ... we’re going to make the finals.”

Kevin Walters (L) and Allan Langer (C) talk shop with injured superstar Reece Walsh. Picture: Liam Kidston

Upon fears of the Storm’s impending resting plan, the TAB reacted by making North Queensland ($1.36) heavy favourites over Melbourne ($3.10).

“The Cowboys already hold close to 80 per cent of outlays in TAB’s head-to-head market with the line now out to 8.5,” Welsh told this masthead.

Bellamy’s comments on his team selection have only boosted punters confidence that the Cowboys are in for a big win this weekend, with a shift on the line already happening before teams have been named.

“North Queensland were $1.42 but we’ve already tightened them into $1.36 with Melbourne pushing out from $2.90 to $3.10 outsiders,” he said.