Brisbane Broncos special report: Statistics comparison puts spotlight on alarming drop off in 2024

The Broncos not only dropped the ball on the field, they lost control of a dream NRL draw in 2024. These are the damning numbers that highlight Brisbane’s fall from statistical heavyweights in 2023.

There’s nowhere to hide from the disappointment of Brisbane’s failed 2024 NRL season, not even at home.

The damning numbers make for uncomfortable reading as a statistical breakdown of Brisbane’s year magnifies their plight.

By almost any key metric, the Broncos simply didn’t back up from last season. That was always going to be the challenge for coach Kevin Walters and his young team, after they led Penrith until the final two minutes of the 2023 grand final.

“I struggle to buy the grand final hangover,” Broncos legend Corey Parker said.

“Because if I lost a grand final, which I did in 2015, you are that hungry to get back there the next year. You don’t have a hangover. Players dwell on it, but I don’t agree with the hangover talk. By all reports, they dealt with it, they watched the game and put it to bed.”

But the numbers don’t lie.

From producing another disappointing home record to losing their forward muscle, the Broncos’ attacking flair dried up as their defence came under constant pressure.

THE PERFECT DRAW

It was meant to be the dream NRL draw that would provide the path for Brisbane to end their 18-year premiership drought.

A friendly fixture list with generous runs of games and very little travel, outside of the historic season-opening double header against the Sydney Roosters in Las Vegas.

They hit the jackpot with seven of their first 12 games at home, which helped them to fifth place after the first three months of the season.

Despite being gifted 14 of 24 games at Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos still missed the finals.

While every team officially gets 12 home games, the Broncos got two more Suncorp Stadium fixtures courtesy of being designated the away team for Magic Round against Manly, and the recent Brisbane derby against the Dolphins.

They failed to capitalise, winning just five games at their spiritual home.

Walters needs to improve that record.

The Broncos averaged a league-high 40,308 fans, yet only won five of their 11 home games.

A crowd that strong deserves to turn Suncorp into a fortress.

Surprisingly, the Broncos’ only won seven of their 12 home fixtures last year, including three games at the Gabba while the FIFA Women’s World Cup was on.

In comparison, the Panthers finished 10-2 at home last season and are 8-3 this year.

“I sensed it, right from the opening of the season. The way they played in Las Vegas,” league expert Phil Gould told 100% Footy.

“I thought ‘I’ll give them a couple of weeks of hangover, and a couple of weeks of just getting back into the rhythm’, but it never came good at any stage.

“They had a mini rise during the middle of the season, but when it came to the crunch, they’ve been on the end of some horrendous score lines, from teams who shouldn’t have been beating them.”

TRAVEL SICKNESS

The Broncos were the road warriors of 2023. In 10 away games outside of Brisbane, Walters’ men won nine of them.

This year, the Broncos won just four games outside of Brisbane and lost the remaining six.

By Round 5, they had already lost away to the Roosters, Panthers and Storm as injuries to key players took its toll.

However, there were excuses.

There was no Reynolds or Haas against the Panthers, and Walsh was knocked out of the game from a high shot from Penrith’s Taylan May.

Walsh and Haas were also missing against Melbourne, which became a trend of their season.

Combined, Walsh, Reynolds and Haas missed almost 30 games this season. After featuring in 85 per cent of games last year, that dropped sharply to just 58 per cent in 2024.

Adam Reynolds has only played 12 games this season. Picture: NRL Images

As electric as they were in attack, the Broncos’ 2023 success was built on their defensive efforts.

They were the second-best defensive side in the competition, conceding just under three tries per game. That has ballooned out to more than four per contest this season.

They conceded the third-most run metres (1512) and offloads (10.13) per game to opposition attacks.

“They made a grand final based on their defensive resolve. Yes they didn’t have as many injuries, but you can’t blame that solely for what’s happened this season,” Parker said.

“I can understand injuries preventing a team winning the premiership, but to not even make the top eight is a concern.”

THE INCOMPLETE PACKAGE

Whether it was rival teams’ learning how to nullify Brisbane’s game plan, or players not working hard enough on their craft, the Broncos’ productivity took a sharp decline in 2024.

The entertainers of last season, in which they scored the most tries of any team, the Broncos dropped to ninth (4.73 to 3.91 tries per game) as they failed to break down opposition defences.

After finishing second in run metres and post-contact metres in 2023, they were third-last in both categories this season as the loss of Thomas Flegler hit them hard.

“They need to be held accountable, each and every one of them. They need to understand that to continue to play well in the NRL, you need to do it week in and week out,” Parker said.

On the back of that, the Broncos struggled to generate second-phase play as their offloads (third to 17th) and linebreaks (first to 11th) dropped off.

Brisbane slipped to last in completed sets and generated the most errors per game (11.7) of any team.

On the back of that, the Broncos struggled to generate second-phase play as their offloads (third to 17th) and linebreaks (first to 11th) dropped off.

Brisbane were last in completed sets and generated the most errors per game (11.7) of any team.

The players will get six weeks off immediately after the season, international commitments permitting, and will need to return to pre-season training refreshed and ready to put in the work.

The memory of their 2024 failure serves as motivation to ensure a supremely talented roster doesn’t suffer the same fate next year.

“Go back to the start of 2023 and end of 2022, they made a conscious effort to change some things over the summer defensively, they worked really hard and it was evident,” Parker said.

“They need to be held accountable, each and every one of them. They need to understand that to continue to play well in the NRL, you need to do it week in and week out.”